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Lessons from Defense Planning and Analysis on Thinking About Systems of Systems

Lessons from Defense Planning and Analysis on Thinking About Systems of Systems. Paul K. Davis RAND and Pardee RAND Graduate School Symposium on Complex System Engineering January, 2007.

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Lessons from Defense Planning and Analysis on Thinking About Systems of Systems

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  1. Lessons from Defense Planning and Analysis on Thinking About Systems of Systems Paul K. Davis RAND and Pardee RAND Graduate School Symposium on Complex System Engineering January, 2007 This product is part of the RAND working paper series. RAND working papers are intended to share researchers’ latest findings and to solicit informal peer review. They have been approved for circulation by the RAND National Security Research Division but have not been formally edited or peer reviewed. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. RAND® is a registered trademark. These charts are provided as a courtesy to MORS and attendees of the tutorial. However, readers are urged to refer directly to the published materials cited in the briefing and available for order or download at www.rand.org.

  2. A Classic Defense-Planning Analysis

  3. Fundamentals of Capabilities-Based Planning • Deep and ubiquitous uncertainty • Uncertainties range from “simple” to those characteristic of complex-adaptive systems • Enemy commanders who will “find the corners”

  4. Planning Under Uncertainty • The key: adopting strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR strategies) • Flexible for different missions • Adaptive for different circumstancews • Robust to along-the-way shocks • Seeking FARness implies deferring “requirements” until problem domain is well scoped • Issue is not “requirements,” but doing the best one can with available resources and constraints (suggested requirements become outputs) • Talk of “optimization” is a red flag

  5. Implications for Analysis and Modeling • To assess candidates for FARness, we need designer-type work, not precision • Creative anticipation of plausible future uses and circumstances • Exploratory analysis in the full, squishy space • Families of tools, including • War gaming, expert judgment,… • Simple models suitable for broad exploratory analysis • Detailed models suitable for in-depth work where needed • Empirical work

  6. Relationships to Systems of Systems • Common features include: • Focus on FARness; disavowal of point-planning • Related attention to designing “right” building blocks to enhance FARness, but allowing also for quick at-time tailoring • Related premium on slack, growth potential,… • Lots of emphasis on people issues • Allowing for interactiveness • Paying great attention to social factors and other complications

  7. Problems and the Need for Champions • Routine engineering (along with routine defense analysis) ignores most uncertainties and resists soft, squishy requests for adaptiveness • Organizations often resist • Conclusion: the country’s best system engineers need to be vociferous leaders in pushing for what makes sense, uphill much of the way • That’s the challenge for those in this conference.

  8. Why Simple Analysis Can Be Better Than Detailed Analysis

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