Economic Development in Rowan County, KY: looking back to move forward

1. Economic Development in Rowan County, KY: looking back to move forward This exploratory work should NOT be cited. RAPP 300: Seminar in Regional Issues I Blake Bedingfield, Bonita Fraley, Justin May, Trey Rosser, and Kyle Yarawsky School of Public Affairs Morehead State University

2. Introduction • Our common question: • How do we build on community assets to shape a positive future for Appalachia? • Our tasks: • Identify a critical community need that affects its long-term sustainability. • Develop a project that addresses this need

3. NewCity Morehead (Rowan County) • Overseen by the NewCities Institute (NCI) • Community listening sessions held • Final report issued • Ongoing work

4. Community-based Goals • Intentional 21st Century Economic Development • Increase government efficiency • Plan for countywide growth and preservation • Get serious about getting green • Communicate the vision & listen to the people

5. Persistent Ecnomic Distress in RC • According to the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC), the following areas have experienced persistent economic distress since 1960: • Central Appalachia • Eastern Kentucky • Rowan County, KY Wood and Bischak (2000)

6. Economic 'Distress' • Counties that are the most economically depressed are labeled ‘Distressed’ • Low per capita income • High unemployment and poverty rates www.arc.gov (2009)

7. Research Question • Why has Rowan County, KY experienced such persistent economic distress?

8. Rowan County’s Assets • Morehead State University • KCTCS vocational campus • St. Claire Regional Medical Center • Large retailers • New regional business airport • Interstate 64 and U.S. 60 (AAA-rated trucking highways)

9. Literature Review • Suggested that economic status was associated with variables such as: • Level of employment diversity • Size of dependent population • Out-migration • Level of community involvement • Level of educational attainment • Health care accessibility • Community/family values and attitudes

10. Research Hypothesis • Compared to non-Appalachian Kentucky and the U.S., persistent economic distress in Rowan County, KY between 1970 and 2000 was associated with: • A larger dependent population • Out-migration • Lower levels of educational attainment • Lower employment diversity

11. Methodology • Collected 1970-2000 census data for all 120 counties in Kentucky • Population • Educational attainment • Employment diversity • Poverty • Unemployment • Per Capita Income (Sources: U.S. Census, SocialExplorer.com)

12. Methodology (cont.) • To evaluate the hypothesis, we graphed trends in: • Population • Educational attainment • Employment diversity

13. Results – Rowan County • Unemployment increased • Poverty remained high • Population grew slightly and aged • Educational attainment was mixed • Employment was concentrated in the ‘goods and services’ and ‘education’ sectors • Small, but steady rise in medical field jobs

14. Reminder . . . Research Hypothesis • Compared to non-Appalachian Kentucky and the U.S., persistent economic distress in Rowan County, KY since 1970 was associated with: • Larger dependent population • Out-migration • Lower levels of educational attainment • Lower employment diversity

15. Results – Age Structure

16. Results – Educational Attainment

17. Results – Employment Diversity

18. Was our hypothesis supported? • Partially . . . • Compared to non-Appalachian KY and the US: • The dependent population was smaller (X) • No out-migration (X) • Employment diversity was lower ( ) • Educational attainment was somewhat lower ( )

19. Recommendations . . . • Try to improve employment diversity by attracting more high wage/high skill jobs • 1 in 5 people have at least a 4-year college degree • Keep focus on the ‘high road’ strategy (2) Try to increase the number of college graduates (3) Examine other counties • Learn from successful strategies • Avoid mistakes

20. Identifying Other Counties • Mapped economic status in KY • Adapted the ARC’s methodology • Computed ‘economic status’ for all KY counties (1970-2000) • Two groups: • ‘Same economic status’ as Rowan County in 1970, but showed improvement over time • ‘Better economic status’ than Rowan County in 1970, but experienced decline over time

21. Economic Status Maps 1970 1980 Distressed At-Risk Transitional Competitive Attainment 1990 2000

22. Potential Comparison Counties ‘Better to worse’ counties ‘Same to better’ counties Appalachian Kentucky

23. Future Work • Collect and analyze additional variables that likely impact economic progress, such as: • Community involvement • Health care accessibility • Community/family values and attitudes • Take a more ‘in depth’ look at Rowan County • Look for other counties outside of KY

24. Acknowledgements • Mr. Glen Teager(NewCity Morehead) • Mr. Tad Long (New Cities Institute) • Drs. Stephen Lange, Timothy Hare, and Michael Hail (School of Public Affairs, MSU) • Mr. Tom Kmetz (MSU Library) • Appalachian Regional Commission • Appalachian Teaching Project