slide1 l.
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Economic Outlook 2006 Northeast Minnesota and Duluth Jim Skurla, Acting Director Bureau of Business and Economic Researc

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 28

Economic Outlook 2006 Northeast Minnesota and Duluth Jim Skurla, Acting Director Bureau of Business and Economic Researc - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 130 Views
  • Uploaded on

Economic Outlook 2006 Northeast Minnesota and Duluth Jim Skurla, Acting Director Bureau of Business and Economic Research. Brought to you by, James A. Skurla,. ACE FORECASTER. x. How is the U.S economy doing?. x. How is the U.S economy doing?. U.S. ECONOMY.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Economic Outlook 2006 Northeast Minnesota and Duluth Jim Skurla, Acting Director Bureau of Business and Economic Researc' - nida


Download Now An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
slide1
Economic Outlook 2006

Northeast Minnesota and Duluth

Jim Skurla, Acting Director

Bureau of Business and Economic Research

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

slide2

Brought to you by,

James A. Skurla,

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

slide3

ACE

FORECASTER

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

how is the u s economy doing

x

How is the U.S economy doing?

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

how is the u s economy doing5

x

How is the U.S economy doing?

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

u s economy

U.S. ECONOMY

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

u s economy7

Prices shot up from Katrina. Crude oil prices hit highs in summer 2005.

U.S. ECONOMY

%

Source: David Lereah, chief economist for the National Realtors Association

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

u s economy greenspan and the fed s interest rate raises

U.S. ECONOMYGreenspan and the Fed’s interest rate raises . . .

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

u s economy are putting downward pressure on housing prices

U.S. ECONOMY. . . are putting downward pressure on housing prices

Source: David Lereah, chief economist for the National Realtors Association

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

soaring energy prices expected to remain high through 06 weakening in 07

SOARING ENERGY PRICESexpected to remain high through ’06, weakening in ’07.

Source: Energy Information Administration

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

how is the minnesota economy doing

How is the Minnesota economy doing?

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

demographic projections u s mn duluth
Demographic Projections U.S., MN, Duluth

U.S.

  • projected to reach 300 million this year
  • Three states — Florida, California and Texas — will account for nearly one-half of total U.S. population growth to 2030.

MN

  • State Demographer says Minnesota will have . . .
    • net in-migration from other states and countries
    • older population

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

slide13

Demographic Projections (continued)MN, Duluth

Source: Minnesota Population Projections 2000-2030,

MN State Demographer, MN Planning

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

minnesota budget forecast 2006

Minnesota Budget Forecast 2006

SURPLUS?

millions

Balance forecast for FY 2006-07. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $701

Buyback to school aid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $370 Required to complete buyback portion of school aid

Buyback to property tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $331 Required for a partial buyback of the property tax recognition shift, reducing the recognition percentage from 48.6% to 10.8%

Still needed to complete buyback. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -$94

Source: Minnesota Dept of Finance

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

mn capital expenditures
$MN capital expenditures

$897 million total when other bonds and cash are included. 

http://www.governor.state.mn.us

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

minnesota economic indicators
Minnesota Economic Indicators

Source: MN Dept of Finance ;Minneapolis Fed Reserve; Star Tribune

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

slide17

Minnesota and U.S. Nonfarm Employment Growth

% Change

Source: CES data, Global Insight, and MN DEED

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

how is the local duluth economy doing

How is the local Duluth economy doing?

“The answer is blowin’ in the wind”

Bob Dylan

blowin’ in the wind?

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

slide19

Duluth-Superior MSA Employment

Booming 90s!

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

unemployment rate
Unemployment Rate

Source: MN DEED

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

slide21

Duluth-Superior MSA

Industry Employment 1995-2004

Source: BLS

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

high growth high pay industries projected for northeast minnesota 2002 2012
High Growth/High Pay IndustriesProjected for Northeast Minnesota 2002-2012

employment growth higher than average

annual salary higher than median

at least 0.1% of total employment

. . . Etc.

Source: MN DEED

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

region s top industries

Region’s Top Industries

  • Mining
  • Wood and Paper Products
  • Shipping and Trans.
  • Health Care
  • Tourism

2006 Outlook:

Taconite output

remains steady

  • worldwide demand
  • weakening dollar
  • stable economy
  • high scrap prices

NEW Mining construction

and expansions proposed:

NorthMet

Mesabi Nugget

Mintac

Keewatin Taconite

Minorca Mine

Hibbing Taconite

United Taconite

North Shore Mining

Source: UMD BBER, Duluth News Tribune,

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

duluth s top employers

Duluth’s Top Employers

Major Employers:

St. Mary’s/Duluth Clinic

Benedictine Health

U of M Duluth

St. Luke’s Hospital

Allete

Canadian Nat. Railway

Source: Matt Shoeppner (DEED) and Northland Connection

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

how s business in duluth

How’s Business in Duluth?

NOTABLE ACTIVITY

  • Over $190 million in construction projects either under way or just completed in Duluth
  • Cirrus Design Expansion
  • Hospital District Expansion
  • Mining on the Range impact

Source: UMD BBER and 2006

State of the City Address

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

duluth economy 280 million in unfunded benefits to retirees

Duluth Economy$280 Million in Unfunded Benefits to Retirees

TASK FORCE SUMMARY RECOMMENDATIONS:

Combine new health plan savings

Put $26 million a year into a health account for 30 years

Increase all utility rates 4 to 5%

Cut the city's share of retiree health costs by 20%

Source: Post Employment Health Care Benefits Task Force Final Report and Minnesota Public Radio

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

in short
In short . . .

Most economists believe economic growth will slow to around 3% by the 2nd half of 2006

  • Higher fuel
  • Lower consumer spending
  • Slower real estate
  • Deficit drag

However, Duluth may see jobs from mining projects on the Range, and export possibilities to China.

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research

slide28
Follow these and other stories online with the Labovitz School’s Bureauwww.d.umn.edu/sbe/departments/bber/

Economic Impacts of PolyMet’s NorthMet Project (in progress)

Alternatives to Petroleum Based Fuels for Marine Vessels (in progress)

Economic Impact of Constructing and Operating an Integrated Gasification Power-Generation Facility on the Iron Range (pdf)

Grand Marais Harbor Expansion Impact 2005 (pdf)

Under, Over, and Mis-Matched Skills Employment in Northeast Minnesota, Including the Port Cities. March 2005, for the Minnesota Legislature, and MN DEED (pdf)

Development Enterprise Network System Analysis 2005 (pdf)

Mesaba Metals, LLC Impact Study 2003 (pdf)

Tax Revenue Impacts and Marketing Northern Minnesota’s Iron Trail 2003 (pdf)

Bureau of Business

and Economic Research