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Is the Gautrain the solution ? Romano Del Mistro

Is the Gautrain the solution ? Romano Del Mistro. TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005. To promote economic growth, job creation and SMMEs To relieve congestion To demonstrate government’s commitment to public transport. To restructure the apartheid city

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Is the Gautrain the solution ? Romano Del Mistro

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  1. Is the Gautrain the solution? Romano Del Mistro TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

  2. To promote economic growth, job creation and SMMEs To relieve congestion To demonstrate government’s commitment to public transport To restructure the apartheid city To give expression to an integrated transport plan To improve environmental conditions Six objectives

  3. Public debate… • Good public participation programme, became focussed on NIMBY • Alternative modes were not debated sufficiently • The best alternative needs to be shown to be the best

  4. Inadequate debate leads to … • Incorrect public perception of professional competence • Loss of public credibility in and support for future initiatives aimed at sustainable transport • Waste of resources

  5. Looking for an alternative Some details A question of scale Contents

  6. Public transport alternatives • Not limited to current experience

  7. ITDP, June2005; Seoul This is also a bus service • Seoul • Forty kilometres of dedicated median lanes on major trunk lines

  8. Jakarta 6,000 pass/h per direction. Articulated buses can boost capacity to 9,600 This is also a bus service ITDP, January2005; Jakartal

  9. Mexico City 250 000 daily passengers This is also a bus service

  10. This is also a bus service • Bogota • By 2015, TransMilenio: • 5 million pass / day • 388 km of busways • 37 km of trunk lines • 57 stations • 28 pedestrian overpasses • 4 terminals of integration • Control centre • Total cost US$ 198.8 million

  11. This is also a bus service • Curitiba

  12. This is also a bus service • Eindhoven • Phileas

  13. Capacity Cost per passenger Capital cost Speed Appropriate technology Safety Comfort Convenience Image National Pride To attract car user To promote public transport Choosing an alternative

  14. Maximum link volume 7400 (2000) 13800 (2016) Ex Brocklebank et al (2001) Estimated at: 5000 (2005) 5400 (2010) Ex Corporate.gautrain.co.za Minibuses 5400 / 15 seats = 367 trips Buses 5400 / 50 seats= 110 trips Choosing …. Capacity (Pk hr/direction)

  15. Lloyd Wright, 2003 I will come back to passenger estimate Choosing …. Capacity (Pk hr/direction)

  16. Choosing …. Cost/passenger Subsidy = Cost - fare Additional subsidy= (R51-R36) *5400/.11*250 = R184 million /year (R331m?)

  17. Used this value; not R7, R8-, R12-, R20-, or R24- billion) Choosing…. Capital cost HIGHER RISK WHEN INVESTING IN RAIL

  18. High speed rail 62 km 35 minutes, plus 10 minutes to station 5 minutes wait 10 minutes to work = 60 minutes Slower mode: 62 km 44 minutes, plus 10 minutes to station 5 minutes wait 10 minutes to work = 69 minutes IS IT WORTH IT? Choosing…. Speed

  19. Peak hour passengers/ direction (1+1+1+1)*800 +(3+2)*2200 = 14200 cars 1,3 pass/vehicle and 20% to Gautrain = 3692 pass/hr High values require more explanation of modelling ? 2 1 3 1 1 1 Some details… Estimating the trips

  20. “Generally the capital costs are paid by government, therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.” A political decision to pay for some of the capital costs. But we (passengers or citizens) pay for all the costs; either as fares or as taxes. Some details…. Capital paid

  21. To ensure ridership Densify corridor wrt housing and employment? Delay new freeway construction? Buses can carry over 20 000 peak hour pass/direction Creates a precedent for longer travel distances. Average = 20 km Website Average = 35 km Brocklebank et al (2001 ) A question of scale

  22. A question of scale • What if only 2200 peak hour pass/direction? • (114-56) *2200 /.11*250 = R290 million/year (or R430million/year) • R 321 million/year subsidy for 16000 peak hour bus passengers / direction in Greater Johannesburg. • What percentage risk in a Public Private Partnership is fair to government? • R18b / R20b?; R10b/ R20b?; R5b/R20b?

  23. . R12 billion plus on the relatively more affluent. What is being spent on the deteriorating rail network? A question of equity

  24. Shanghai MagLev A question of objectives • Define objectives • National pride • Reviving inner city property values • Greater development plans? • Region must have its train! • Degree of mobility

  25. A question of open debate • Test modelling assumptions in open debate • Alternatively, ask the private sector what it will ask for it to take 100% of the risk.

  26. Test transport alternatives Rail high speed Integrated Rail SA At-grade bus Can always be upgraded Mixed grade bus Even revisit corridor development goals A question of alternatives

  27. Public transport services that are Safe, convenient, reliable, accessible and affordable Must consider all alternatives to implement the best solution Gauteng to follow up Car Free Day with indabaSaturday October 22, 2005 09:16 - (SA) Gauteng transport MEC Ignatius Jacobs will follow up Car Free Day with a commuter indaba as a step to champion commuter rights, his office announces ……………… Conclusion

  28. Thank you OR O

  29. Thank you OR O

  30. Total cost/passenger (R/trip)

  31. Operating Cost/passenger (R/trip)

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