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Population change in Sri Lanka: emerging challenges for new millennium

Indralal De Silva Senior Professor of Demography - Chair & Dean Faculty of Arts University of Colombo Sri Lanka. Population change in Sri Lanka: emerging challenges for new millennium. Sections of presentation. Demographic transition Past, present & future size of population

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Population change in Sri Lanka: emerging challenges for new millennium

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  1. Indralal De SilvaSenior Professor of Demography - Chair& Dean Faculty of ArtsUniversity of ColomboSri Lanka Population change in Sri Lanka: emerging challenges for new millennium

  2. Sections of presentation • Demographic transition • Past, present & future size of population • Change in the age & sex structure • Population ageing • Conclusions

  3. Life Expectancy at Birth: 1920-22 to 1990-92

  4. Fertility Transition: 1953 to 2001-2006

  5. Demographic Transitions of Sri Lanka,1871-2005 Crude Birth Rate Natural Increase Crude Death Rate

  6. Population Growth and Density in Sri Lanka, 1871-2003

  7. Projected Population of Sri Lanka

  8. 25 21.9 21.7 21.6 20.6 18.7 20 17.0 14.8 15 Population (millions) 12.7 10.6 10 8.1 6.6 5.3 4.5 5 0 1921 1931 1946 1953 1963 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 Population of Sri Lanka, 1921 to 2041

  9. Population Growth and Size1991-96 to 2036-41 25 1.4 1.2 Population size 20 1 0.8 15 0.6 Population (millions) Growth rate (percentage) 10 0.4 Growth rate 0.2 5 0 0 -0.2 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 2031-36 2036-41

  10. Sex Ratio - Sri LankaNumber of males per 100 females Note: During this period (1946-1981) sex ratio at birth has stayed virtually constant between 103-104.

  11. Age Structure (Standard Projection)

  12. FEMALES MALES FEMALES MALES 80+ 80+ 75-79 75-79 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 -6% -4% -2% 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% -6% -4% -2% 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% Projected Contrast in the Age Structure of the Population 1991 and 2041 (Standard Projection) 2041 1981

  13. Population Age 60 and Over (in millions),Sri Lanka, 1991-2021 3.6m 2.6m 16.7% 1.7m 1.4 1.4m 12.5% 9.2% 6.1% 2021 1991 2001 2011

  14. Distribution of Elderly by Age, 1971 to 2041

  15. Age Dependency Ratios, 1991 to 2041 (Standard Projection)

  16. Old dependency Child dependency Projected Changes in Young and Old-Age Dependency Ratio, 1991 to 2041 (Standard Projection) 60.7 53.6

  17. Rapidity of the Ageing Process

  18. Conclusion • Population willincrease & then stabilize • Proportion & number of elderly willincrease • Ageing: a challenge in coming years • By late 2020s one-quarter will be elderly • “Old Old” category willincrease • Females & widows among the elderly willincrease

  19. Conclusion • Most elderly don’t have any retirement income • Large numbers will be retiring: They need to have pension or other scheme • Elderly can live about 2 decades of retirement • Demographic environment is conducive for economic takeoff: Presently lowest level of dependency

  20. Thank You Do you have any question or comments?

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