FFESC Project No. 003
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FFESC Project No. 003 Integrating Climate Change Adaptation Strategies with Sustainability and Socioe c onomic Objectives for the Quesnel Timber Supply Area Ann Chan-McLeod UBC Presentation at QMC Workshop May 4, 2011. Outline of Presentation. Study Overview

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Outline of presentation

FFESC Project No. 003Integrating Climate Change Adaptation Strategies with Sustainability and Socioeconomic Objectives for the Quesnel Timber Supply AreaAnn Chan-McLeodUBCPresentation at QMC WorkshopMay 4, 2011


Outline of presentation
Outline of Presentation

  • Study Overview

  • Progress Update on Model Development

  • Interim Results

    • TACA modeling

    • BEC projections

  • Discussion

    • Model Assumptions

    • Lumber Value


Study objective
Study Objective

  • Develop a decision support tool that would facilitate identification of a target future landscape for the Quesnel TSA that would reduce long-term vulnerability to climate change while factoring in short and mid-term sustainability and socioeconomic objectives.

  • The tool depicts the direct and indirect effects of projected climate change scenarios on wildlife and socioeconomic parameters over 10, 50, and 80 year horizons for the Quesnel TSA, and evaluates the effects of alternative management scenarios on the outcome.



Study species selection criteria
Study SpeciesSelection Criteria

  • Habitat specialist

  • Empirical data must be available for all of the following:

    • Direct effects of climate as observed from Interior BC

    • Response to mountain pine beetle epidemic

    • Response to forest and habitat attributes

    • Response to harvesting and salvage logging

    • Independent data for testing


Study species candidates
Study SpeciesCandidates

  • Swainson’s Thrush (Mixed Deciduous Forests)

  • Red-breasted Nuthatch (Mature Forests, Resident)

  • Hammond’s Flycatcher (Mature Forests, Migrant)

  • American Robin (Mature/Young Forests, Early Migrant)

  • Chipping Sparrow (Open Habitats, Early Sere)

  • Dusky Flycatcher (Open Conifer with Shrubs)


Methods draft bayesian model swth
MethodsDraft Bayesian Model - SWTH


Methods general circulation models gcms
MethodsGeneral Circulation Models (GCMs)

  • General Circulation Models (GCMs) replicate the physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere and in the ocean, in order to project future climates.

  • In this study, the 7 GCMs that were used to evaluate climate change effects are from the 4th Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES4) produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

  • Uncertainty in climate projections arise from modeled assumptions in atmospheric and oceanic processes, and also from assumptions in the political, social, and cultural conditions that drive emission levels.


Methods choosing climate change scenarios
MethodsChoosing Climate Change Scenarios

Spittlehouse and MurdockJune2010


Methods study gcms
MethodsStudy GCMs

Adapted from Spittlehouse and MurdockJune2010


Methods bec projections
Methods BEC Projections

Observed

Predicted

1961 –1990


Methods taca modeling
MethodsTACA Modeling

  • Tree and Climate Assessment (TACA) tool developed by Nitschke and Innes (2008) for modeling ecosystem response to climate change

  • Input variables include climatic as well as edaphic parameters (e.g., soil moisture regime, soil texture, rooting depth, available water holding capacity, percolation rate)

  • Modeled at the level of the BEC variant

  • Edaphic parameters based on Craig DeLong’s PSP values (2010, pers. comm.)


Methods taca input into bayesian model
MethodsTACA Input into Bayesian Model

AET/PET indicates probability of tree mortality (DeLong, pers. com.)

  • Direct mortality due to drought

  • Indirect mortality due to disturbance agent


Methods silvicultural practice
MethodsSilvicultural Practice


Interim results lodgepole drought mortality very hot scenario current
Interim ResultsLodgepole Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (Current)


Interim results lodgepole drought mortality very hot scenario 2020
Interim ResultsLodgepole Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (2020)


Interim results lodgepole drought mortality very hot scenario 2050
Interim ResultsLodgepole Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (2050)


Interim results lodgepole drought mortality very hot scenario 2080
Interim ResultsLodgepole Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (2080)


Interim results douglas fir drought mortality very hot scenario current
Interim ResultsDouglas Fir Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (Current)


Interim results douglas fir drought mortality very hot scenario 2020
Interim ResultsDouglas Fir Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (2020)


Interim results douglas fir drought mortality very hot scenario 2050
Interim ResultsDouglas Fir Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (2050)


Interim results douglas fir drought mortality very hot scenario 2080
Interim ResultsDouglas Fir Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (2080)


Interim results current bec
Interim ResultsCurrent BEC


Interim results smallest change scenario 2020
Interim ResultsSmallest Change Scenario2020


Interim results smallest change scenario 2050
Interim ResultsSmallest Change Scenario2050


Interim results smallest change scenario 2080
Interim ResultsSmallest Change Scenario2080


Interim results smallest change scenario bec of study area
Interim ResultsSmallest Change ScenarioBEC (% of study area)


Interim results current bec1
Interim ResultsCurrent BEC


Interim results very hot scenario 2020
Interim ResultsVery Hot Scenario2020


Interim results very hot scenario 2050
Interim ResultsVery Hot Scenario2050


Interim results very hot scenario 2080
Interim ResultsVery Hot Scenario2080


Interim results very hot scenario bec of study area
Interim ResultsVery Hot ScenarioBEC (% of study area)


Discussion model assumptions
DiscussionModel Assumptions

  • Study area is 70% of the area of the TSA.

  • AAC is 70% of 4 million m3

  • Maximum harvest of non-pine conifer = 70% of 650,000 m3

  • Rotation Age: 80 years for pine; 120 years for non-pine conifers

  • Stand Eligibility for Salvage Harvest: 70% pine

  • Shelf life of MPB infested = 20 years:

  • Post-MPB regeneration: +15 years (i.e. 15 year old regen under canopy)

  • Biodiversity guidelines (wildlife tree patch):

    • < 50 ha – 10%

    • 50 – 250 ha – 12..5%

    • 250 ha – 20%

  • Log volume (Prognosis output from I. Moss) is for 5-year increments starting in 2008. This study uses 2008 data for 2010.


Discussion lumber value
DiscussionLumber Value

Phil Winkle, 2005


Project participants
Project Participants

Principal Investigator

Ann Chan-McLeod, UBC

Team Members

Arnold Moy, UBC

Tongli Wang, UBC

Emina Krcmar, UBC

Consultants and Contributors

Phil Winkle, QMC

Ian Moss, Tesera Systems

Ron Meister, Forestmeister Services

Craig DeLong, BCMOF