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Indian Economy Update. June 22,2007 Isher Judge Ahluwalia . Emerging Economies : Growing Contribution. Emerging economies’ contribution to global economy is increasing rapidly Their share of world exports has increased from 20 per cent in 1970 to 43 per cent in 2005

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slide1

Indian Economy Update

June 22,2007

Isher Judge Ahluwalia

slide2

Emerging Economies : Growing Contribution

Emerging economies’ contribution to global economy is increasing rapidly

Their share of world exports has increased from 20 per cent in 1970 to 43 per cent

in 2005

Their GDP growth at 7 per cent is three times that of mature market economies

at 2.3 per cent

2

gdp 2005 ppp at 2003 constant billion usd

India:4th Largest Economy in PPP terms

GDP 2005 PPP (at 2003 Constant Billion USD)

In real per capita terms, India is 9 years behind China.

Source: World Bank, WDI 2006

slide4

Demographic Dividend

% of Population aged 15-64

Source: UN, Population Statistics

slide5

Indian Economy on an Upward Growth PathGDP growth at constant prices(% per annum)

Source: Central Statistical Organization

slide6

Inflation Rate (%)

WPI

CPI

Source: Central Statistical Organization

slide7

Declining Poverty

UNIFORM REFERENCE PERIOD

MIXED REFERENCE PERIOD

Source: NSS Full Sample Surveys

slide8

Changing Income Distribution

Source: World Bank, WDI 2005, NSS Full Sample Surveys

slide10

Social Indicators :1

Life Expectancy

(Years)

Literacy Rate

(% of population)

Source: Census of India, National Family Health Survey-I,II,III

slide11

Social Indicators :2

Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births)

Maternal Mortality Rate(per 10,000 live births)

Source: Census of India, Sample Registration System (SRS) Estimates, National Family Health Survey-I,II,III

slide12

Social Indicators :3

Population Growth Rate

(%)

Birth Rate

Birth per 1000 population

Fertility Rate

Avg lifetime births per women

Source: Census of India, Sample Registration System (SRS) Estimates, National Family Health Survey-I,II,III

slide13

Social Indicators :4

Access to Safe Drinking Water(% of households)

Access to Sanitation Facility(% of households))

Source: Census of India

slide14

Social Indicators :5

Underweight Children (%)

Net Enrolment Rate (%)

For children under three years of age. The nutritional status (weight-for age) is measured as percentage below 2 SD from the median of the International Reference Period.

Source: National Family Health Survey-I,II,III

Source: Ministry of Human Resource Development

slide15

Gross Domestic Saving(% of GDP)

Source: Central Statistical Organization

slide16

Gross Investment(% of GDP)

Source: Central Statistical Organization

slide17

Trade in Goods and Services(% of GDP)

Source: Reserve Bank of India

slide19

Growth of Goods Exports (%)

Source: Reserve Bank of India; Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S) , Ministry of Commerce, Government of India

slide20

Growth of Services Exports (%)

Source: Reserve Bank of India

slide21

Index of Real Effective Exchange Rate

Source: Reserve Bank of India

slide23

Current Account Deficit(% of GDP)

Source: Reserve Bank of India

slide24

Foreign Exchange Reserves

(US $ Billion)

Source: Reserve Bank of India

slide25

Foreign Investment Flows

(US $ Billion)

Source: RBI, India