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The post-crises world or, the new normal. presentation to Collision Repair Association 2013 Conference Dr Ganesh Nana Chief Economist Business and Economic Research Ltd 19 April 2013. old. The new normal. which two economies had a 60% share of the world economy 2000 years ago?

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the post crises world or the new normal

The post-crises worldor, the new normal

presentation to

Collision Repair Association 2013 Conference

Dr Ganesh Nana

Chief Economist

Business and Economic Research Ltd

19 April 2013

the new normal

old

The new normal
  • which two economies had a 60% share of the world economy 2000 years ago?
  • which two economies still had a half share in the world economy in 1820?
slide3
The debt crisis in a nutshellthe gaps between earning and spendingNB: its about nations, not governments
motor challenges1
Motor - challenges
  • legislative
    • safety (older vehicles?)
    • environmental standards
    • WOF changes
  • household income pressures
  • roading investment pressures
  • public transport options
as our achilles heel imposes more pain
As our Achilles Heel imposes more pain

Progress in rebalancing NZ economy

NZ debt in Sep 2008 = $149.9bn

NZ debt in Sep 2012 = $148.8bn

the hard yards ahead
The hard yards ahead …

“Looking beyond our present circumstances, our future depends on our ability to export.”

Budget Speech, June 1978

economics is
Economics is …

liquidity

swap rates

house prices

interest rates

inflation

leverage

debt

hedge funds

ratings

a lesson in rocket science or economics 101

wealth

creation

resource

export

income

development

investment

spending

A lesson in rocket scienceor Economics 101
challenges in the new normal
Challenges in the ‘new’ normal

making

new ‘friends’

or

‘relationships’

  • climate change
  • energy (& related raw materials)
  • water
  • food
  • skilled labour
nz 2012 population
NZ 2012 population

but the next 25 yrs ???