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HCM 570 Financial Management in Healthcare August 14-December 18, 2004. Joseph Callaghan, Ph.D. Oakland University Accounting and Finance. Mathematics and Tools of Finance. Basics Intermediate Case 11. Time Value Analysis. Future and present values Lump sums Annuities

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HCM 570 Financial Management in Healthcare August 14-December 18, 2004


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    1. HCM 570 Financial Managementin HealthcareAugust 14-December 18, 2004 Joseph Callaghan, Ph.D. Oakland University Accounting and Finance

    2. Mathematics and Tools of Finance • Basics • Intermediate • Case 11

    3. Time Value Analysis • Future and present values • Lump sums • Annuities • Uneven cash flow streams • Solving for i and n • Investment returns • Amortization

    4. Time Value of Money • Time value analysis is necessary because money has time value. • A dollar in hand today is worth more than a dollar to be received in the future. Why? • Because of time value, the values of future dollars must be adjusted before they can be compared to current dollars. • Time value analysis constitutes the techniques that are used to account for the time value of money.

    5. Time Lines 1 2 0 3 i% CF0 CF1 CF2 CF3 Tick marks designateends of periods. Time 0 is the starting point (the beginning of Period 1); Time 1 is the end of Period 1 (the beginning of Period 2); and so on.

    6. Time Line Illustration 1 1 0 2 5% 5% $500 • What does this time line show?

    7. Time Line Illustration 2 1 0 2 10% 10% ? -$100 • What does this time line show?

    8. What is the FV after 3 years ofa $100 lump sum invested at 10%? 0 1 2 3 10% -$100 FV = ? • Finding future values (moving to the right along the time line) is called compounding. • For now, assume interest is paid annually.

    9. After 1 year: FV1 = PV + INT1 = PV + (PV x i) = PV x (1 + i) = $100 x 1.10 = $110.00. After 2 years: FV2 = FV1 + INT2 = FV1 + (FV1 x i) = FV1 x (1 + i) = PV x (1 + i) x (1 + i) = PV x (1 + i)2 = $100 x (1.10)2 = $121.00.

    10. After 3 years: FV3 = FV2 + I3 = PV x (1 + i)3 = 100 x (1.10)3 = $133.10. In general, FVn = PV x (1 + i)n .

    11. Three Primary Methods to Find FVs • Solve the FV equation using a regular (non-financial) calculator. • Use a financial calculator; that is, one with financial functions. • Use a computer with a spreadsheet program such as Excel, Lotus 1-2-3, or Quattro Pro.

    12. Non-Financial Calculator Solution 0 1 2 3 10% -$100 $133.10 $110.00 $121.00 $100 x 1.10 x 1.10 x 1.10 = $133.10.

    13. Financial Calculator Solution • Financial calculators are pre-programmed to solve the FV equation: FVN = PV x (1 + i)n. • There are four variables in the equation: FV, PV, i and n. If any three are known, the calculator can solve for the fourth (unknown).

    14. Using a calculator to find FV (lump sum): INPUTS 3 10 -100 0 N I/YR PV PMT FV 133.10 OUTPUT Notes: (1) For lump sums, the PMT key is not used. Either clear before the calculation or enter PMT = 0. (2) Set your calculator on P/YR = 1, END.

    15. What is the PV of $100 duein 3 years if i= 10%? 0 1 2 3 10% $100 PV = ? Finding present values (moving to the left along the time line) is called discounting.

    16. Solve FVn = PV x (1 + i)n for PV PV = FVN / (1 + i)n. PV = $100 / (1.10)3 = $100(0.7513) = $75.13.

    17. Financial Calculator Solution INPUTS 3 10 0 100 -75.13 N I/YR PV PMT FV OUTPUT Either PV or FV must be negative on most calculators. Here, PV = -75.13. Put in $75.13 today, take out $100 after 3 years.

    18. Opportunity Cost Rate • On the last illustration we needed to apply a discount rate. Where did it come from? • The discount rate is the opportunity cost rate. • It is the rate that could be earned on alternative investments of similar risk. • It does not depend on the source of the investment funds. • We will apply this concept over and over in this course.

    19. Opportunity Cost Rate (Cont.) • The opportunity cost rate is found (at least in theory) as follows. • Assess the riskiness of the cash flow(s) to be discounted. • Identify security investments that have the same risk. • Estimate the expected return that could be earned on the security investment. • When applied, the resulting PV provides a return equal to the opportunity cost rate. • In most capital finance situations, bench-mark opportunity cost rates are known.

    20. Solving for i Assume that a bank offers an account that will pay $200 after 5 years on each $75 invested. What is the implied interest rate? INPUTS 5 -75 0 200 N I/YR PV PMT FV 21.7 OUTPUT

    21. Solving for n Assume an investment earns 20 percent per year. How long will it take for the investment to double? INPUTS 20 -1 0 2 3.8 N I/YR PV PMT FV OUTPUT

    22. Types of Annuities Three Year Ordinary Annuity 0 1 2 3 i% PMT PMT PMT Three Year Annuity Due 0 1 2 3 i% PMT PMT PMT

    23. What is the FV of a 3-year ordinary annuity of $100 invested at 10%? 0 1 2 3 10% $100 $100 $100 110 121 FV = $331

    24. Financial Calculator Solution INPUTS 3 10 0 -100 331.00 N I/YR PV PMT FV OUTPUT Here there are payments rather than a lump sum present value, so enter 0 for PV.

    25. What is the PV of the annuity? 0 1 2 3 10% $100 $100 $100 $90.91 82.64 75.13 $248.68 = PV

    26. Financial Calculator Solution INPUTS 3 10 100 0 N I/YR PV PMT FV OUTPUT -248.69

    27. What is the FV and PV if theannuity were an annuity due? 0 1 2 3 10% $100 $100 $100 ? ?

    28. Switch from End to Begin mode on a financial calculator. Repeat the annuity calculations. First find PVA3 = $273.55. INPUTS 3 10 100 0 -273.55 N I/YR PV PMT FV OUTPUT Then enter PV = 0 and press FV to find FV = $364.10.

    29. Perpetuities • A perpetuity is an annuity that lasts forever. • What is the present value of a perpetuity? PV (Perpetuity) = . • What is the future value of a perpetuity? PMT Perp fv = i

    30. Uneven Cash Flow Streams: Setup 4 0 1 2 3 10% $100 $300 $300 -$50 $ 90.91 247.93 225.39 -34.15 $530.08 = PV

    31. Uneven Cash Flow Streams:Financial Calculator Solution • Input into the cash flow register: CF0 = 0 CF1 = 100 CF2 = 300 CF3 = 300 CF4 = -50 • Enter i= 10%, then press NPV button to get $530.09. • NPV means “net present value.”

    32. Investment Returns • The financial performance of an investment is measured by its return. • Time value analysis is used to calculate investment returns. • Returns can be measured either in dollar terms or in rate of return terms. • Assume that a hospital is evaluating a new MRI. The project’s expected cash flows are given on the next slide.

    33. MRI Investment Expected Cash Flows(in thousands of dollars) 4 0 1 2 3 -$1,500 $310 $400 $500 $750 • Where do these numbers come from?

    34. Simple Dollar Return 0 1 4 2 3 -$1,500 $310 $400 $500 $750 310 400 500 750 $ 460 = Simple dollar return • Is this a good measure?

    35. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Dollar Return 0 1 4 2 3 8% -$1,500 $310 $400 $500 $750 287 343 397 551 $ 78= net present value (NPV) Where did the 8% come from?

    36. DCF Dollar Return (Cont.) • The key to the effectiveness of this measure is that the discounting process automatically recognizes the opportunity cost of capital. • An NPV of zero means the project just earns its opportunity cost rate. • A positive NPV indicates that the project has positive financial value after opportunity costs are considered.

    37. Rate of (Percentage) Return 0 1 4 2 3 10% -$1,500 $310 $400 $500 $750 282 331 376 511 $ 0.00= NPV, so rate of return = 10.0%.

    38. Rate of Return (Cont.) • In capital investment analyses, the rate of return often is called internal rate of return (IRR). • In essence, it is the percentage return expected on the investment. • To interpret the rate of return, it must be compared to the opportunity cost of capital. In this case 10% versus 8%.

    39. Intra-Year Compounding • Thus far, all examples have assumed annual compounding. • When compounding occurs intra-year, the following occurs. • Interest is earned on interest more frequently. • The future value of an investment is larger than under annual compounding. • The present value of an investment is smaller than under annual compounding.

    40. 0 1 2 3 10% -100 133.10 Annual: FV3 = 100 x (1.10)3 = 133.10. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 5% -100 134.01 Semiannual: FV6 = 100 x (1.05)6 = 134.01.

    41. Effective Annual Rate (EAR) • EAR is the annual rate which causes the PV to grow to the same FV as under intra-year compounding. • What is the EAR for 10%, semiannual compounding? • Consider the FV of $1 invested for one year. FV = $1 x (1.05)2 = $1.1025. • EAR = 10.25%, because this rate would produce the same ending amount ($1.1025) under annual compounding.

    42. The EAR Formula q iStated EAR = 1 + - 1.0 q 2 0.10 = 1 + - 1.0 2 = (1.05)2 - 1.0 = 0.1025 = 10.25%. Or, use the EFF% key on a financial calculator.

    43. EAR of 10% at Various Compounding EARAnnual = 10%. EARQ = (1 + 0.10/4)4 - 1.0 = 10.38%. EARM = (1 + 0.10/12)12 - 1.0 = 10.47%. EARD(360) = (1 + 0.10/360)360 - 1.0 = 10.52%.

    44. Using the EAR 4 2 3 1 0 5 6 6-month periods 5% $100 $100 $100 Here, payments occur annually, but compounding occurs semiannually, so we cannot use normal annuity valuation techniques.

    45. First Method: Compound Each CF 5 6 4 2 0 1 3 5% $100 $100.00 $100 110.25 121.55 $331.80

    46. Second Method: Treat as an Annuity • Find the EAR for the stated rate: EAR = (1 + ) - 1 = 10.25%. 2 0.10 2 • Then use standard annuity techniques: 3 10.25 0 -100 INPUTS N I/YR PV FV PMT 331.80 OUTPUT

    47. Amortization Construct an amortization schedule for a $1,000, 10% annual rate loan with 3 equal payments.

    48. Step 1: Find the required payments. 0 1 2 3 10% -$1,000 PMT PMT PMT 3 10 -1000 0 402.11 INPUTS N I/YR PV FV PMT OUTPUT

    49. Step 2: Find interest charge for Year 1. INTt = Beginning balance x i. INT1 = $1,000 x 0.10 = $100. Step 3: Find repayment of principal in Year 1. Repmt = PMT - INT = $402.11 - $100 = $302.11.

    50. Step 4: Find ending balance at end of Year 1. End bal = Beg balance - Repayment = $1,000 - $302.11 = $697.89. Repeat these steps for Years 2 and 3 to complete the amortization table.