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Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making. 16th- 17th October 2008. Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies. Augusta Maria Paci Maria Stella Chiacchio. ITIA-CNR.

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Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making

16th- 17th October 2008

Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

Augusta Maria Paci

Maria Stella Chiacchio

ITIA-CNR

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Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

Rationale

  • FTA in research and innovation is the relevant process for planning collaborative development of future industrial technologies.
  • New approach to technology foresight – coupled with the roadmapping and impact assessment for implementation.
  • The Rolling programme method to bring R&I forward processing multiple inputs from multiple stakeholders to producea unique common direction for multiple stakeholders serving as a new input for action.
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Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

Foresight

F

R

Roadmapping

Implementation

VISION

I

M

Monitoring

Rolling Programme: FRIM cycle

Foresight: demand driven process for future technologies with attractiveness and feasibility analysis.

Roadmapping: open process for screening and planning of the RTD prioritization of next generation technologies with feasibility and traceability of industrial expected impacts by time horizons.

Monitoring: the assessment and evaluation process towards innovation knowledge capture and CBA.

Implementation: the process towards consistency of efforts for stakeholders interventions. Plans of priorities to minimizing threats, maximizing opportunities and reducing risks for new HAV products/services, processes and business models.

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Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

EPPLab, 2008

Rolling Programme visibility

Rolling Programme ensures through Knowledge Management for Innovationeffectiveness, efficiency and consistency to futuring-oriented technologies for production systems emerging paradigms.

The goal is to track and make the end to end visibility of the advancements towards turning knowledge into innovation.

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Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

The Background: Leadership SSA project

  • Leadership Information Base
  • 25 manufacturing sectors and Sectoral roadmaps;
  • 147 industrial targets from the industrial survey of 120 KOLs;
  • 49 RTD macro areaspublished in the Overall ManuFuture Roadmap;
  • 491 technology fact sheets produced by the Leadership Roadmapping.

The empirical study: Impact assessment

  • The autonomous study “Transectoral technologies’ impact on sectors”, carried onby EPPLab in the FP6 SSA Leadership project, deals with:
  • RTD pre-competitive areas analyzing the industrial expected impact at European level;
  • Industrial targets of innovation of 25 manufacturing sectorsthatare analyzed with regard to the futuring expected impact of 49 RTD areas;
  • the synthetic Impact view thatis in the “Initial Impact Matrix” consistent with the ManuFuture reference model.
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Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

www.leadership-ssa.org

Empirical study: Initial Impact Matrix

temporal distribution

of sectors’ innovation

6 ManuFuture SRA Pillars

Interested Sectors

  • Main results:
  • the cross-referenced demand driven prioritization of RTD areas
  • 100 top topics for Call Topics for the Stakeholders and for the European Commission multi-annual planning in the FP7 Programme 4.3 “New Production”.
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Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

Application of demand driven Futuring Model

Demand driven

FRIM cycle

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Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

Empirical study: Operative method flow

INFORMATION ANALYSIS

of sectoral Roadmaps

EXTRACTION

Sectors’ targets

  • Focus on:
  • sectors HVA targets;
  • Time horizon;
  • multi-sectoral perspective;
  • multi-technological perspective.

CATCHING

Sectors’ targets content

and time horizon

RELATIONSHIP

  • Macro areas and sectors, giving:
  • Traceability of transectoral macro areas
  • by the multiple sectors demand;
  • Visibility of time horizon;
  • Prioritization of macro areas.

SCOPE

RESULTS

  • Hierarchy of precompetitive
  • innovation needs:
  • A transectoral technology need
  • A multisectoral need
  • A sector need
  • Initial Impact matrix
  • Twofold view matrix
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Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

Development of FTA in research and innovation

Empirical Study: twofold view

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Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

FTA in research: example of RTD Macro Area view

Offer: RTD Macro area

Indirect element:

Traceability

Expected impact

(grey color)

Demand:

25 Sectors

Direct element:

Time horizon

Continuous need

Indirect element:

Traceability

No expected impact

(white color)

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Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

FTA in research and innovation for policy and decision making

  • The empirical study:
  • supports European stakeholders, researchers, Industries and Policy Bodies at multilevel for competitiveness and sustainability to develop new capabilities to generate anticipatory initiatives that require impact assessment analysis to understand the entire transformation process.
  • contributes to the direct involvement of stakeholders on planning and coordinating future actions in terms of R&D programmes, competitive calls and funded projects.
  • responds to the need of “Sound Intelligence support” already envisaged by CREST Multilevel Policies Report, 2007.
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Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

Conclusions: a new futuring context

A new futuring context for research and innovation requires:

  • to build an open environment networking industrial research and innovation communities;
  • to develop new foresight method - from a linear to a complex approach - to respond to the increasingly complex, interdependent and uncertain realms of today’s business and policy strategy in the Knowledge economy;
  • to create a value upstream through availability of existing competences and of sound directions;
  • to support FTA for Industrial Research with the rolling programme.

This is the new futuring context of research and industry stakeholders to operate more effectively andto proceed faster toward the common goal.

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Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

Acknowledgments

The authors are pleased to acknowledge Mr. Andrea Gentili, Coordinator for the European Commission of the ManuFuture Platform, and Mr. Jyrki Suominen, Scientific Officer of European Commission and Project Officer of Leadership project, for their precious collaboration and suggestions.

Acknowledgements are also due to ManuFuture European Technology Platform, to ManuFuture National Technological Platforms and to the Leadership Consortium.

A particular appreciation is to industrial key opinion leaders of about 120 companies and to roadmappers of research organizations involved in the roadmapping activity of the Leadership project.

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Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies

Augusta Maria Paci

EPPLab Responsible

Maria Stella Chiacchio

doctoral student in Economic and Management Engineering

at “Tor Vergata” University in Rome

EPPLab of ITIA-CNR (Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche)

Via dei Taurini, 19

00185 Rome, Italy

+39 06 4993 7870

maria.chiacchio@itia.cnr.it