1 / 18

Brazilian Second Round: Post-Electoral Analysis Wilson Center, Brazil Institute

Brazilian Second Round: Post-Electoral Analysis Wilson Center, Brazil Institute November 1, Washington DC. The Crystallization of the Brazilian Electorate. Final Results  Crystallized Electorate. PSDB  35% PT  46% Floaters  19%.

nelson
Download Presentation

Brazilian Second Round: Post-Electoral Analysis Wilson Center, Brazil Institute

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Brazilian Second Round: Post-Electoral Analysis Wilson Center, Brazil Institute November 1, Washington DC

  2. The Crystallization of the Brazilian Electorate

  3. Final Results  Crystallized Electorate PSDB  35% PT  46% Floaters  19% C Class increases by 30 million, from 34% to 49% of the Brazilian adult population TSE

  4. No Movment in the 2nd Round XXXXX Credit C Class increases by 30 million, from 34% to 49% of the Brazilian adult population Institutoanalise

  5. The Electoral Environment

  6. Explosion in “C Class”  Middling Class XXXXX Credit C Class increases by 30 million, from 34% to 49% of the Brazilian adult population Ipsos Cetelem 2005 - 2009

  7. Election about Brazilian’s consupltion and mobility conquests... XXXXX Credit

  8. Dilma Next Steps

  9. Approval Ratings • Lula First Year  average 80% • FHC First Year  Average 80% • Strong Economy and Positive Scenario Should keep Dilma’s Number up. • Less of honeymoon in Brazil

  10. Where does the PSDB/Opposition go from here?

  11. Key Elite Issues • What is the PSDB’s vision for Brazil? • Both PT and PSDB are trying to fill the same space: Center-Left • Ultimately, both parties are very class oriented in their electoral make-up

  12. PSDB versus PT Ipsos 2008

  13. Voter Demands: Rise of the Quality of Life Agenda

  14. Rise of the Quality of Life Agenda: 2005 vs. 2010 Inflation is #1 issue in 1993 Middle Class Demand Profile

  15. Voter Agenda: Main Problems (September 2010)

  16. Elite Agenda:The Bottleneck Agenda

  17. Education is Key (2009) % Education Health Crime Corruption Constant Issues across polls  Education and Infrastructure Jobs/Unemployment Economic Development Lack of support of the Poor Government Incompetence Elite Study 2009 Brasil: Jornalists, Politicians/Government, and Private Sector

  18. Key Elite Issues • Consensus Issues • Bottlenecks  Infrastructure and Education • Impact on Macro-economic policies over the last 16 years • Huge inequality problems hurt Brazil globally • Size of State and Taxes  among private sector

More Related