Intraday Analysis Paul Gallacher 19th October 2011 Trading Set-ups
EURUSD • So, 2 charts, Daily chart on the following page showing a steep, upward trend line, and the top end of the range of the recent rally since the lows at 1.3146 early October. The chart below is a 1 hour chart. • Looking at the Wave structure that may be in play, downside target is around the mid to low 135’s. I have a target level as per the green line on the chart at 1.3525. As things stand, fundamental news flow from Europe may well give us some intraday volatility, particularly if we get news that markets like coming out of Europe regarding any credible plan to calm fears over the Euro-zone debt crisis. So, my stop is tight, in at 1.3914. Entry was 1.3775. Not ideal, would have preferred 1.38 area however I feel the risk / reward is ok here, and ultimately I feel the trade has some potential over the coming days. A break of 1.3690 will enable me to move my stop down to scratch.
AUDUSD • Short entered 1.0298. Top end of the downward trend channel. Reasonably strong area of resistance. I have a relatively tight stop in here, 1.0398, with a downside target at 0.9879, so risk / reward for this trade is definitely in the worthwhile camp!
USDCAD • I am not in any USDCAD trade at the moment, however if we get a re-test of the 50% retracement around the 50 day simple moving average, 1.033 area, I’d look at a long entry with a tight stop just below parity with a view to riding the trend upwards to see out the 5th Wave, around the September high, 1.0667
USDCHF • Very similar to my USDCAD situation, not in at the moment, looking for a long entry around 0.8921, with an upward target around the 98 handle.
USDJPY • Not much to say on USDJPY. I’m closely watching this pair, looking for wave 5 to break-out of the current near 3 month range to the down-side, maybe around the 75 handle. That is where I’d be looking at a long entry, playing upwards to the 80 area.
Gold • Gold has broken out of it’s recent pennant to the downside, and remains back under the 20 day simple moving average. I have entered a short, with 2 targets. I’d be looking at taking half off around $1,600, and the other half off around $1,532. Entry was $1,663, not ideal, trade has potential though in my view. Tight stop at $1,695