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Learn the importance of short-term cash forecasts and how to develop monthly cash budgets. Understand the differences between daily and monthly cash forecasting, as well as the methods used for forecasting cash flows. Explore forecasting philosophy, parameters, and tools to optimize your financial planning.
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Chapter 12Cash Forecasting • Order Order Sale Payment Sent Cash • Placed Received Received • Accounts Collection • < Inventory > < Receivable > < Float > • Time ==> • AccountsDisbursement • < Payable > < Float > • Invoice Received Payment Sent Cash Disbursed
Learning Objectives • Explain importance of short-term cash forecasts. • Indicate why the monthly cash budget is important to top management, and specify the two objectives for its development. • Indicate how daily cash forecasting differs from monthly forecasting. • Explain the receipts and disbursements, pro forma balance sheet, and distribution methods of cash forecasting.
Forecasting Monthly Cash Flows • Importance to top management • Monthly cash forecast objectives • Forecasting philosophy • Forecast parameters • Statistical tools
Forecasting Philosophy • Number and type of forecasts • Expenditure on forecasts • External versus internal forecasts • Quantitative versus judgmental forecasting
Forecast Parameters • Forecast horizon • Variable identification • Modeling the cash flow sequence • Format of the receipts and disbursement forecast • Interpreting the receipts and disbursement forecast • Developing the receipts and disbursement forecast • Modified accrual method • Pro forma balance sheet method • Model estimation • Model validation
Forecasting Daily Cash Flows • Horizon • Variable identification • Modeling the cash flow sequence • Structuring the daily cash forecast • Distribution method • Model estimation • Model validation
The Distribution Method • Using the method for disbursements • Using the method for collections • Example • Final comments
Summary • The chapter began with a discussion of the philosophy and environment within which cash forecasts are made. • The value of forecasts is to borrow less or extend investment maturities. • The two major cash forecasting time intervals (monthly and daily) were presented and the processes for variable identification, modeling the cash flow sequence, model estimation, and model validation discussed.