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Learning from the Past to Protect the Future: Creating our Nation’s Next Earthquake & Tsunami Survival Stories PowerPoint Presentation
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Learning from the Past to Protect the Future: Creating our Nation’s Next Earthquake & Tsunami Survival Stories . John D. Schelling, Interim Mitigation & Recovery Section Manager Washington State Emergency Management. john.schelling@mil.wa.gov 253.512.7071 Twitter: @ jdschelling.

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Learning from the Past to Protect the Future: Creating our Nation’s Next Earthquake & Tsunami Survival Stories

John D. Schelling, Interim Mitigation & Recovery Section Manager

Washington State Emergency Management

john.schelling@mil.wa.gov

253.512.7071

Twitter: @jdschelling

great 1964 alaska earthquake tsunami effects in washington state
Great 1964 Alaska Earthquake & Tsunami: Effects in Washington State
  • March 27, 1964 @ 5:36 p.m.
    • Magnitude 9.2
    • Most powerful earthquake recorded in U.S. history and second largest of all time (Chile M9.5, 1960)
    • Resulting tsunami peak was about 220 feet in Valdez inlet and many others locations were over 50 feet
    • Entire west coast and Hawaii affected from tsunami, especially California and Oregon.
    • The wave height in Washingtonwas about 10-12 feet

Highway 109 bridge over Copalis River, WA

Houses torn apart at Pacific Beach, WA

today is the 13 th anniversary of the nisqually earthquake
Today is the 13th Anniversary of the Nisqually Earthquake
  • February 28, 2001 @ 10:54 a.m.
    • Magnitude 6.8
    • 11 miles northeast of Olympia, Washington
    • 31.6 miles deep
    • Felt from British Columbia to Montana
    • Amazingly, there were no deaths, ~400 injuries
    • Estimated losses of $1 - $4 billion

Courtesy: USGS, 2001

where have others been recently
Where Have Others Been Recently?

The Not so Distant Past…

canterbury new zealand earthquakes
Canterbury, New Zealand Earthquakes
  • September 4, 2010 @ 4:35 a.m.
    • Magnitude 7.1
    • 25 miles west of Christchurch near Darfield
    • 6 miles deep
  • February 22, 2011 @12:51 p.m.
    • Magnitude 6.3
    • 3 miles southwest of Christchurch
    • 3 miles deep

Christchurch

Christchurch

christchurch teaches us that
Christchurch Teaches Us That:
  • LOW Risk = NO Risk

USGS, 2008

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Key Lessons from Christchurch: Hazard Assessment & Pre-Disaster Mitigation Really Matter…and Really Work!
    • Hazard Assessment is Essential:
      • Prior to this earthquake sequence, the Greendale Fault had not been identified.
    • Mitigation Works:

“For example, the mitigation measures put in place after a vulnerability study (1994-97) cost $6 million but are estimated to have saved $60-65 million in direct asset replacement costs as result of the earthquakes in addition to the contribution to rapid restoration of services.”

  • Source: Review of the Civil Defence Emergency Management Response to the 22 February Christchurch Earthquake, 29 June 2012

Source: GNS Science, 2011

new zealand teaches us another lesson
New Zealand Teaches Us Another Lesson:
  • Social Science needs to be part of the process, and it needs to play an equal role.
  • The USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) project is a GREAT start, but needs to be scaled to a national level in order to be most effective.
  • With the potential use of Earthquake Early Warning, we NEED a holistic approach…one that considers not only how to get a warning to people, but effectively teaches them WHAT TO DO once it arrives.
effective branding of seismic safety great shakeout earthquake safety drills
Effective Branding of Seismic Safety:Great ShakeOut Earthquake Safety Drills

2013 Official ShakeOut Regions

21 Regions (+5 from 2012)

44 U.S. States/ Territories (+20)

Total Registration

(worldwide)

2013: 24.7 million

2012: 19.5 million

2011: 12.5 million

2010: 8.0 million

2009: 6.9 million

2008 5.4 million

washington state earthquake scenario catalog a virtual playbook for natural hazards management
Washington State Earthquake Scenario Catalog: A Virtual Playbook for Natural Hazards Management
  • USGS ShakeMap
  • FEMA Loss Estimation (HAZUS) Report
  • USGS Community Vulnerability Information
  • Scenario Fact Sheet (EMD, USGS, FEMA, NOAA)

Suite of Materials (accessible at www.dnr.wa.gov):

slide17
Washington State Earthquake Scenario Catalog: Impacts Viewer for Planning, Preparedness, Mitigation, & Response
slide18
But we still have a long way to go! How do we get there from here?(as quickly and inexpensively as possible…of course)

The Future…

slide19
What would a repeat of the 1964 Alaska Earthquake and Tsunami Look Like in the Lower 48? The Cascadia Earthquake Scenario

Image Source: USGS

  • Magnitude 9.0
  • Felt region-wide
  • Shaking intensities greatest along coast & where local conditions amplify seismic waves
    • Injuries: 30,000 +
    • Fatalities: 10,000 +
    • Economic losses: $81+ Billion in Oregon & Washington alone.
  • Source: Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup (www.crew.org)
marching boldly towards resilience one state at a time
Marching boldly towards Resilience…one state at a time
  • How do you get recovery underway more rapidly and get your economy moving? Don’t let infrastructure break to begin with.
  • Recovery Planning…in advance.
the most effective way to a resilient future is through nehrp and twea
The Most Effective Way to a Resilient Future is Through NEHRP and TWEA
  • Both the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) and the Tsunami Warning & Education Act (TWEA) are critical to helping states and local communities succeed in both identifying and reducing near- and long-term risk and increasing life-safety.
  • These two key laws provide the necessary underpinning for a coordinated and effective national strategy for to reduce our future earthquake and tsunami losses.
the most effective way to a resilient future is through nehrp and twea1
The Most Effective Way to a Resilient Future is Through NEHRP and TWEA.
  • National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP)
    • NEHRP provides a strategic nation direction and helps marshal sometimes disconnected entities in a common direction
    • Without a reauthorization, agencies such as FEMA do not have a line item in their budget for these activities.
    • We are seeing the consequences of cash matching requirements…consider in-kind to ensure that all states can participate in the program
  • Tsunami Warning & Education Act (TWEA)
    • Funding that supports hazard assessment, warning capability, and community-based preparedness may now be in greater jeopardy simply due to National Weather Service reorganization
with every disaster comes opportunity
With every disaster comes opportunity.

Will we seize our opportunities to create a better, more resilient nation before or after our next big earthquake(s) and tsunami(s)?