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Data Cleaning and kWh-Weighted AvgLF Calculations

3. 7. 4. 1. 9. 8. 5. 6. 2. Data Cleaning and kWh-Weighted AvgLF Calculations. PWG June 28, 2006. kW or kWh?. Initial Undertaking.

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Data Cleaning and kWh-Weighted AvgLF Calculations

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  1. 3 7 4 1 9 8 5 6 2 Data Cleaning and kWh-Weighted AvgLF Calculations PWG June 28, 2006

  2. kW or kWh? Initial Undertaking The Average Load Factor (AvgLF) used to determine Profile Segment assignment is a weighted average of the individual monthly load factors, where demand values are used to determine the weights A simple monthly load factor is calculated as: kWh / (days in period x 24) / max kW Would weighting by kWh result in a more representative Profile Type assignment? To illustrate how different weights can greatly affect the calculated Average LF... actual record

  3. Extreme Values Preliminary analysis highlighted how extreme kWh or kW values or values of zero (0) can greatly affect load factor calculation—regardless of the weighting method—and are problematic in efforts to assign the most representative Load Profile Segment Consider the following actual record: extreme value 3

  4. Approach Look at an Average Load Factor calculation which is a weighted average of the individual meter read period load factors, where kWh values are used to determine the weights • Track all ESI IDs that had a Load Factor-based Profile Type assignment in December 2003 and in June 2006 • Exclude outliers • Do not calendarize data • Calculate AvgLF with kWh as weights

  5. The Process For the fixed set of ESI IDs, compile the kWh and kW data to span the: • 12 months of the Assignment Year; and • 12 months immediately preceding the Assignment Year Exclude monthly records in the following order • Load Factor: Values that exceed 102% • kWh: Values that are outside of -2.5 or +3.0 standard deviations from the mean ADUse for the 24 month period • kW: Values that were outside of -2.5 or +3.0 standard deviations from the mean kW for the 24 month period Calculate an AvgLF based on the data that span the 12 months of the Assignment Year; do not calendarize the data, and use the kWh to weight the load factors of the individual meter read periods 5

  6. Less Data; More AvgLF • Current AvgLF calculation requires at least 16 days of kWh and kW values for each of the specified 12 months • How much data is required to accurately determine the Profile Segment?

  7. Less Data; More AvgLF

  8. Less Data; More AvgLF

  9. How good are the assignments? Ultimately, the goal of the assignment process is to select the most appropriate load profile on which an ESI ID will be settled in some future periods. A way to measure whether the most appropriate Profile ID was assigned is to look at the load factors of the individual meter reads covered by a specific Profile ID assignment. For example, suppose an ESI ID was assigned BUSHILF (AvgLF > 60%) from 2004 AV, and we have:

  10. How good are the assignments? For this analysis we utilized a fixed set of ESI IDs, and performed an Annual Validation for 2005 for each of the data requirement levels. Subsequently we compiled the kWh and kW data: • For the analysis period of months spanning June 1, 2005 – May 31, 2006 • Performed data scrubbing to exclude records whose… - Load Factor: Values that exceed 102% - kWh: Values that are outside of -2.5 or +3.0 standard deviations from the mean ADUse for the 24 month period - kW: Values that were outside of -2.5 or +3.0 standard deviations from the mean kW for the 24 month period • Calculated a Load Factor for each of the usage periods whose data is included in the analysis period. • Compared the AV 2005 Profile Assignment to the Monthly LFs and categorized the AV2005 Profile Assignment as either ‘Correct’, ‘Incorrect’, or ‘Unable to Determine’ for that usage period.

  11. A Closer look at Profile Changes…

  12. A Closer look at Profile Changes…

  13. A Closer look at Profile Changes…

  14. A Closer look at Profile Changes…

  15. A Closer look at Profile Changes…

  16. How good are the assignments? Results for various levels of data required for AvgLF to be calculated: While the difference between “50% of days required” and “Current Process” is 1.3 percentage points, this translates to more than 614 million kWh being settled on a more appropriate load profile.

  17. As the relative improvement in the amount of kWh correctly profiled is small, continue utilizing the current process for calculating the BUS profile assignment for Annual Validation. Explore other methods for increasing the percentage of kWh profiled correctly. More frequent profile assignment validations Dynamic profile assignments for each read Adjust breakpoints between load factor categories Lagged dynamic samples Others… Recommendations

  18. Questions or Comments

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