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The State of China’s Environment Dr. Eva Sternfeld

The State of China’s Environment Dr. Eva Sternfeld. China Environment and Sustainable Development Reference and Research Centre (CESDRRC) Centre for Environmental Education and Communication (CEEC) of SEPA.

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The State of China’s Environment Dr. Eva Sternfeld

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  1. The State of China’s EnvironmentDr. Eva Sternfeld China Environment and Sustainable Development Reference and Research Centre (CESDRRC) Centre for Environmental Education and Communication (CEEC) of SEPA

  2. China faces severe environmental challenges:Environmental Sustainability Index reportChina is ranked 133 (of 146 countries)(2005)www.yale.edu/esiEnvironmental Performance Index Report (2006)China ranked 94 (of 133 countries)www.yale.edu/epi

  3. Indicators for ESI • Environmental systems (Air quality, Biodiversity, Land Resources, Water Quality, Water quantity) • Efforts Reducing Environmental Stress (Reducing Pollution, reducing population pressure, natural Resource management • Reducing Human Vulnerability (environmental Health, basic Human sustenance, Reducing Environment Related Disaster Vulnerability) • Social and Institutional Capacity (Environmental governance, Eco-Efficiency, Private Sector Responsiveness, Science and Technology) • Global Stewardship (Participation in International Collaborative Efforts, Greenhouse Emissions, Reducing Transboundary Pressures

  4. Environmental Sustainability Index (2005)

  5. Environmental Performance Index (2006)

  6. China Environment and Sustainable Development Reference and Research Centre (CESDRRC)中国环境与可持续发展资料研究中心 Centre for Environmental Education and Communication (CEEC) of SEPA国家环境保护总局宣传教育中心 China’s Landscapes Diversity of a continent Different climate zones

  7. China – Physical Characteristics (9.6 million Km2 w/ uneven geo-morphological conditions) Sustainable Population China: 800 million Population Predictions 2040-2050: 1.6 billion Sustainable Population of 800 million (2100)

  8. China – Population Density (75% of population lives in less than 50% of territory)

  9. China Environment and Sustainable Development Reference and Research Centre (CESDRRC)中国环境与可持续发展资料研究中心 Centre for Environmental Education and Communication (CEEC) of SEPA国家环境保护总局宣传教育中心 Population Density in China Average population density 130 people/km2 More than 90% of China’s population is concentrated in less than 1/3 of the country.

  10. China Population Density – Regional Economic Centres (i) 3% of Land Mass; (290,000 Km2) (ii) 20% of population; (260 million people) (iii) 45% of GDP; (US$ 650 billion) (iv) 70% of all international trade & investments (US$ 560 billion) & (US$ 420 billion) Source: NDRC; University of Honk Kong (Enright, M.); UNIDO Analysis

  11. China Environment and Sustainable Development Reference and Research Centre (CESDRRC)中国环境与可持续发展资料研究中心 Centre for Environmental Education and Communication (CEEC) of SEPA国家环境保护总局宣传教育中心 Urban Development and the Environment in China 663 cities (year 2000) 458 million people (36 % of total population) lived in cities

  12. CHINA – Water Resources Comparison of water availability in China to world average 9500 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 water availability (m3 / person / year) 5000 4000 3000 2200 2000 1000 0 China World Average Source: AquaBio-Tronic.com LLC (John McAlister)

  13. CHINA – Water Resources (not available where required most) 1. TOTAL AVAILABILITY: 2,800 billion/m3/year; 1. TOTAL CONSUMPTION: 550 billion/m3/year 2. LOCATION: (i)80% - Yangtze Delta (40% of Total Cultivated Land); (ii)12% - Northwest Region (45% of Total Cultivated Land); (50% of China Total Land) • 2. LOCATION: • (i) Throughout whole China • AGRICULTURE: 60%; • INDUSTRY: 30%; • Household & Others: 10% Source: SDPC (NDRC); Ministry of Water Resources - China; UNIDO Analysis

  14. China Environment and Sustainable Development Reference and Research Centre (CESDRRC)中国环境与可持续发展资料研究中心 Centre for Environmental Education and Communication (CEEC) of SEPA国家环境保护总局宣传教育中心 Water About 340 million Chinese lack access to safe water !

  15. Water pollution

  16. CHINA – Water Resources (i)70% of Rivers and 90% of Urban Underground Water POLLUTED; (ii)WASTE WATER (Discharge): 637 municipal waste water treatment plants Source: 1) Ministry of Construction; 2) Ministry of Water Resources - China; 3) UNIDO Analysis

  17. CHINA – Water Resources (contin.) (i) Presently about 70% cities have water shortages, and in about 10% of the cases, the situation is severe; (ii) To solve part of urban wastewater problem (2001–2010) – Investments of US$ 30 billion are required

  18. China Environment and Sustainable Development Reference and Research Centre (CESDRRC)中国环境与可持续发展资料研究中心 Centre for Environmental Education and Communication (CEEC) of SEPA国家环境保护总局宣传教育中心 TSP emissions in Chinese and other cities Air Pollution Air quality in many Chinese cities falls well below international standards, Chinese cities are the most polluted in the world. API Comparison between Chinese cities 335 cities are regularly monitored. Air pollution index (API): sulphur dioxide, nitrous oxide and total suspended particulates. 33 cities meet Grade I or II, 40% gall under grade IV and V. Coal combustion is the leading source of industrial air pollution.

  19. China Environment and Sustainable Development Reference and Research Centre (CESDRRC)中国环境与可持续发展资料研究中心 Centre for Environmental Education and Communication (CEEC) of SEPA国家环境保护总局宣传教育中心 Solid Waste Management Only 20 percent of municipal waste is treated in standard landfills Insufficient waste treatment causes groundwater pollution etc.

  20. China Environment and Sustainable Development Reference and Research Centre (CESDRRC)中国环境与可持续发展资料研究中心 Centre for Environmental Education and Communication (CEEC) of SEPA国家环境保护总局宣传教育中心 Forests Logging ban Since 1998 • Forest cover • 18% • Unequal distribution • Of forests • Deforestation • Increases • Danger of flooding • Soil erosion • Desertification Grain for Green Export of deforestation

  21. China Environment and Sustainable Development Reference and Research Centre (CESDRRC)中国环境与可持续发展资料研究中心 Centre for Environmental Education and Communication (CEEC) of SEPA国家环境保护总局宣传教育中心 Land Resources • Grassland destruction • Soil erosion • Salinisation • Land pollution • Desertification

  22. China Environment and Sustainable Development Reference and Research Centre (CESDRRC)中国环境与可持续发展资料研究中心 Centre for Environmental Education and Communication (CEEC) of SEPA国家环境保护总局宣传教育中心 Land Resources • Grassland destruction 90% of 400 million ha of the grassland degraded Grassland lost by conversion, overgrazing

  23. China Environment and Sustainable Development Reference and Research Centre (CESDRRC)中国环境与可持续发展资料研究中心 Centre for Environmental Education and Communication (CEEC) of SEPA国家环境保护总局宣传教育中心 Land Resources • Soil erosion Two fifth of the land suffers from soil erosion 5 billion tons of soil are lost per year

  24. China Environment and Sustainable Development Reference and Research Centre (CESDRRC)中国环境与可持续发展资料研究中心 Centre for Environmental Education and Communication (CEEC) of SEPA国家环境保护总局宣传教育中心 Land Resources Salinisation Caused by poorly developed irrigation systems 80 - 100 million ha affected

  25. China – Desertification • Continuous expansion of desertification,e.g: • Hyper-arid desert covers over 2.62 million km2 (2 times the arable land); • Annual rate of desertification expansion: • 1950s - 1970s: 1,560 km2; • 1980s: 2,100 km2; • Early 90’s: 2,460 km2; Source:Wang Qianjin,FEDRC (Forestry Economics - Development Research Centre);Peter King – ADB (Asia Development Bank)

  26. Biodiversity One tenth of the world’s animal and plant species are in China They are under severe pressure with population growth and economic development Endangered species: Giant panda, Yangtze River Dolphin, wild camel Rare animals and plants threatened by demand for traditional medicine and luxury food

  27. Climate Change Impacts for China 0 • 1990 warmest decade in the 20th century • Average temperature in China predicted to rise 1.3 to 2.1 C by 2020 (compared to 2000), until 2050 to 3.3 C , 2100 to 6 C • Average speed of temperature rise is significantly higher than the global trend • Glaciers of the Tibetan Plateau shrank by 21 % since 1950’s • Extended droughts and higher frequency of sandstorms in North China, increasing intensity of typhoons and flooding disasters in southern China • Rising Ocean levels (currently at a rate of 1.4 to 2.6 mm/year, predictions see a rise of between 31 to 65 centimeters by 2100

  28. Climate Change Impacts for China • Predicted impacts of global warming will be severe and result in serious socio-economic risks: • And shrinking water supply of large areas in arid western China (may affect as many as 250 million people in Western China) • Submersion of parts of southern China (including Pearl River Delta) due to rise in sea levels • China’s food production is predicted to decrease by 10 percent between 2030 and 2050 • Millions of environmental refugees from western arid regions and coastal areas

  29. Primary energy consumption and percentage of world population Sources: IEA, BP, World Population Sheet, data from 2005

  30. China’s Energy Situation (1) • Economic development was accompanied by huge increases in energy consumption • Since 1990, rise in primary energy consumption by more than 70% (2.2 billion tons coal equivalents (tce) in 2005) • China is now the second largest energy consumer (after the USA) and third largest energy producer (after the USA and Russia)

  31. Rise in Energy consumption was accompanied by rise of CO2 emissions

  32. Characteristics of China’s Present Energy Situation (1) Dependence on fossil energy Energy Consumption (2005): 68.9% coal 21.0% crude oil 2.9% natural gas 7.2 % renewable and nuclear

  33. Characteristics of China’s Present Energy Situation (3) • China is rich in coal reserves (12% of global reserves) • It is the largest producer and consumer of coal in the world • Crude oil and gas reserves, however, are not sufficient for the rising demand (increasing dependency on imports and global market prices); in 2004, China advanced to the second largest oil importer worldwide • Demand grows faster than supply (frequent power cuts in the eastern economic zones) • Trend to urbanisation = increase of energy demand • Number of private vehicles is expected to increase twelve fold by 2030

  34. Characteristics of China’s Present Energy Situation (2) • Energy resources are not well distributed with respect to economic development: • Energy demand mainly in the densely populated eastern coastal areas • Coal reserves and gas reserves mainly in western China • Hydropower in the southwest Dr. Eva Sternfeld: aiwastar@163bj.com

  35. Characteristics of China’s Present Energy Situation (4) Energy efficiency is low

  36. Low Energy Efficiency • Energy consumed for heating in China 2 to 3 times that of the West European and North American Countries with similar climate conditions • Exterior wall and window heat loss of Chinese buildings is 3 - 5 times that of buildings in Canada • Average oil consumption for automobiles 20 % higher than developed countries Heat energy use per unit of floorage (W/m)

  37. Energy Szenarios (1) • In view of the mentioned problems related to fossil resources the government has in recent years shown serious commitment to developing renewable and so-called ‘clean’ energy (including nuclear power) • The 11th Five year Plan (2006 -2010) includes goals to improve to reduce energy consumption per unit GDP by 20% (so target was reached in 2006-7) • Experts see huge potential for energy saving in building: • Energy consumption in buildings could decrease by 335 million • tce annually • A decrease of 80 million kwh at air-conditioning peak hour, • equivalent to the power generated by 4.5 “Three Gorges” power • stations at their full capacity

  38. Energy Szenarios (2) • In addition China plans to increase the share share of renewable energy (hydro, wind, solar, biomass) to 15% from a current 7% • 4% nuclear energy from a current 2% • China will, however, remain heavily dependent on coal • By 2020, total primary energy consumption will have almost doubled (to 3 billion tce), coal taking up a share of 60% • China plans to build more than 500 new coal-fired power plants within the next decade

  39. Energy Scenarios (1) Dr. Eva Sternfeld: aiwastar@163bj.com

  40. Development of Renewable Energy • Serious efforts to develop renewable energy • By 2020, 10-15% of total energy capacities shall be provided by renewable energy • Of these • 50 - 80 GW wind power • 75 GW small hydro power • 15 GW biomass • 1-2 GW solar PV • 14 GW others

  41. Present Status and Potential of the Development of Renewables (1) • Hydropower • With 100 GW installed Capacity China is world leader in use of hydropower • Large dam projects controversial because of resettlement issues and environmental impacts • Three Gorges Dam (22 GW) world largest hydropower station • Small Hydropower • China is also world leader in design, manufacture and construction of small hydropower stations • Installed capacity 35 GW (2005) - shall be expanded to 75 GW by 2020 • Potential of exploitable water resources: 395 GW (125 GW of which for small hydropower)

  42. Present Status and Potential of the Development of Renewables (2) South China Morning Post 3.11.2007

  43. Present Status and Potential of the Development of Renewables (4) • Biomass • Potential resources: 840 million tce biomass (including residues of rice and wheat straw, organic wastewater effluents, forestry and municipal wastes) • Installed capacity: 11 million households have biogas digesters, biogas capacity estimated at 1.5 million m3 and 2 GW power generation • Ethanol production: 1.56 million tons per year • Biodiesel production: 190.000 tons per year

  44. Development of Nuclear Energy (1) • China’s civilian program for nuclear power began 1985 • The first reactor started commercial operation in 1994 • There are currently nine nuclear power plants in operation, two more will soon be connected to the grid • All reactors are located in the densely populated coastal areas • Nuclear installed capacity 7000 MW • Nuclear generation share 2.2% (but in the coastal provinces Guangdong and Zhejiang more than 10%)

  45. Outlook:Trends in Chinese Society • More circulation of information • More expertise based on increased contacts with international community, better educational resources • Growing demand for quality of life as the standard of living increases • More understanding on the part of national leaders • More legal enforcement • Increase Investment in R & D

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