Possible Consequences of an Increase in Tropical Cyclone Intensity on Japanese Port Infrastructure and Operations. Miguel Esteban Research Fellow Kyoto University Japan Lecture as part of the course: Engineering and Policy Responses to Climate Change Impacts on Seaports. Overview.
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Lecture as part of the course:
Engineering and Policy Responses to Climate Change Impacts on Seaports
1. Brief introduction of myself
2. Introduction to tropical cyclones and how they are affected by climate change
3. Outline of the methodology used to compute increase in size of tropical cyclone
4. Types of damage
4.1. Indirect damage (downtime)
4.2. Direct damage (destruction of infrastructure)
5. Indirect damage and its significance on the economy of Japan
6. Direct damage to breakwaters (effect of sea level rise)
“Structural and Financial Risk Assessment of Caisson Breakwaters Against Wind Waves and Tsunami Attack”
3 different names:
Cyclones (Indian Ocean)
Same physical phenomena
Central eye surrounded by rain bands
Worst affected areas… Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, China, Korea, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam…
Maybe others in future… Iran, Brazil?
One of the fears of global warming is that it could result in an increase in the frequency and intensity of typhoons due to the warming of sea temperature (Nordhaus 2006).
8 of the 10 most costliest natural disasters in Asia (1980-2008) were due to typhoons in Japan (Munich Re.)
Stern Report highlights generally the dangers to the economy
4th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) States that there is a general agreement that tropical cyclones are likely to increase in intensity, there is yet no consensus on the future frequency of these events.
Typhoons are believed to have a 30-40 year cycle
Strongest typhoons in Western Pacific history
Tip 870 mbar 1979
Gary 872 mbar 1992
Ivan 872 mbar 1997
Joan 872 mbar 1997
Keith 872 mbar 1997
Zeb 872 mbar 1998
June 875 mbar 1975
Ida 877 mbar 1958
Nora 877 mbar 1973
Rita 878 mbar 1978
Yvette 878 mbar 1992
Damrey 878 mbar 2000
CANNOT SAY ANY EVENT UP TO NOW HAS BEEN INFLUENCED BY CLIMATE CHANGE (Katrina had NOTHING to do with Climate Change)
Damage is increasing, but we occupy more of the planet each day.
Typhoon formation is influenced by surface sea water temperature (0.7 degrees 20th century)
Simulations by of Knutson and Tuleya (2004). These authors carried out 1300 five-day idealized simulations using a high-resolution version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 hurricane prediction system. Conclusion: typhoons to get stronger.
It is crucial to understand assumptions on which the present model was built
Knutson and Tuleya (2004) give probability distribution functions of typhoon intensity in 2085
Basically we change the size of historical typhoons according to the shift in the probability distribution function
If maximum winds are stronger (at the centre) typhoon is usually bigger
R30 = 46.744 + 2.168 Wmax
R50 = - 81.345 + 2.099 Wmax
PORT OF NAHA (OKINAWA)
PORT OF YOKOHAMA
Growth in RPCS in Japan, 1990 Prices in trillion yen (Ln)
Growth in GDP in Japan, 1990 Prices in trillion yen (Ln)
b) Perforated Vertical Breakwater
b) Vertical Breakwater
d) Armoured Caisson Breakwater
Toe Protection Armour
Distribution of wave pressure on an upright section of a vertical breakwater