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Risk-Based Analysis of Needs for Transportation Corridor Protection

Risk-Based Analysis of Needs for Transportation Corridor Protection. presented at SRA 2007 Annual Meeting presented by Alexander S. Linthicum Dr. James H. Lambert Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems website http://www.virginia.edu/crmes/corridorprotection December 12, 2007

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Risk-Based Analysis of Needs for Transportation Corridor Protection

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  1. Risk-Based Analysis of Needs forTransportation Corridor Protection presented at SRA 2007 Annual Meeting presented byAlexander S. Linthicum Dr. James H. Lambert Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems websitehttp://www.virginia.edu/crmes/corridorprotection December 12, 2007 San Antonio, TX

  2. Overview • Introduction • Background • Methodology • Case Study • Conclusions

  3. Introduction

  4. Motivation • Over 9000 miles of interstate and primary roads in VA • Increasing vulnerability to development activity • Escalating land values affects right of way acquisition • Desire to avoid unnecessary congestion and costly retrofits • VDOT must anticipate future development in corridors and take timely action: Corridor Protection • Pre-purchase right-of-way • Obtain easements, developer proffers • Access management

  5. Problem Statement Develop a repeatable, data-driven, GIS-based methodology to identify and prioritize countywide corridors in need of corridor protection. Test the methodology in Fauquier County, VA.

  6. Project Steering Committee

  7. Background

  8. Corridor Protection • Potential fiscal and social benefits • Many stakeholders • Methods • Access management • ROW acquisition • Legal issues Sources: (Williams and Frey, 2003; Armour, Rose, Butler, and Waters, 2002; Corridor Capacity Preservation Program, 2002; Stokes, Russell, and Vellanki, 1994; Perfater, 1989; Kamprath and Miller, 2004)

  9. Access Management • Safety • Congestion • Network design • Effects on businesses • HB 2228 Sources: (Plazak and Preston, 2005; Fifth National Conference on Access Management, 2005; NCHRP Synthesis 289, 2000; Bowman and Rushing, 1998; ODOT Access Management, 2004; Williams and Seggerman, 2004; NCHRP Synthesis 337, 2004) ODOT Access Management Manual

  10. Right of Way Acquisition • Pressure to complete ROW estimations • Lengthy acquisition process • Uncertainties with damages and court costs • Uneconomic remnants • Common pitfalls Sources: (Corridor Capacity Preservation Program, 2002; Barnes and Watters, 2002; Heiner and Kockelman, 2005; Williams, Zhou, and Hagan, 2004;) http://www.ci.sandy.or.us

  11. Risk Assessment and Management • Risk Assessment (Kaplan and Garrick, 1981) • What can go wrong? • What are the likelihoods? • What are the consequences? • Risk Management (Haimes, 2004) • What are the trade-offs? • What can be done? • What are the impacts of current decisions on future options?

  12. Risk Assessment and Risk Management (cont.) Survivability Systems Risk Identification Metrics Methodology Interconnect- edness Complexity Common Definition Inter- & Intra- dependency Quantitative Risk Analysis CRMES, 1987-Present National Ground Intelligence Center FBI Dept of Homeland Security US Army Corp. of Engineers Defense Threat Reduction Agency VDOT NASA US Army VA Governor’s Preparedness Team Joint Program Office National Science Foundation PCCIP I3P

  13. Risk Assessment and Risk Management (cont.) Sources: Lambert and Turley (2005), Lambert et al. (2003), Lambert et al. (2006), Leung et al. (2004), Tsang et al. (2002)

  14. Methodology

  15. Overview of Methodology (cont.)

  16. CONSTRAINT FACTORS Public land Wetlands Conservation easements Ag and forestal Districts INDICATOR FACTORS Population & employment Centers Vacant & undervalued land Transportation Overview of Methodology

  17. Overview of Methodology (cont.)

  18. Overview of Methodology (cont.) • UPLAN: A Versatile Urban Growth Model for Transportation Planning (Johnston and Shabazian, 2002) • Characterizing urban land capacity (Landis, 2001) • Smart Land-Use Analysis: The LUCIS Model (Zwick and Carr, 2007) • An approach for greenway suitability analysis (Miller et al., 1998) • Forecasting exurban development to evaluate the influence of land use policies on wildland and farmland conservation (Merenlender et al., 2005)

  19. Overview of Methodology (cont.)

  20. CONSTRAINT FACTORS Public land Wetlands Conservation easements Ag and forestal Districts INDICATOR FACTORS Population & employment Centers Vacant & undervalued land Transportation Overview of Methodology MANAGEMENT FACTORS Access point density Land assessment Utilities

  21. Case Study

  22. 1. Define Problem 2. Collect Data 3. Identify Factors 4. Derive Factors 5. Scale Factors 6. Combine Factors 7. Screen Results 8. Analyze Sections 9. Evaluate Alternatives

  23. Fauquier County

  24. Fauquier County (cont.) • Beyond D.C. suburbs • Rural character • Service Districts • Six major corridors

  25. Fauquier County (cont.)

  26. Fauquier County (cont.) • 32,000 Parcels

  27. 1. Define Problem 2. Collect Data 3. Identify Factors 4. Derive Factors 5. Scale Factors 6. Combine Factors 7. Screen Results 8. Analyze Sections 9. Evaluate Alternatives

  28. Data Collection – Fauquier County • Agricultural and Forestal Districts • National Heritage Resources • Urban Clusters • Parcels • Service District Boundaries • Parks and Schools • Community Centers • Schools • Sports Complexes • State Parks • County Parks • Natural Areas • Zoning Districts • Real Estate Assessments

  29. Data Collection – Fauquier County • Water and Sewer Coverage • 5’ Topographic Contours • Flood Areas • Easements • BoS Commitments & Openspace • Historic Resources • Land Trust of Virginia (LTV) • Marsh Resources, Inc. • The Nature Conservancy • Purchase of Development Rights • Piedmont Environmental Council • VOF Easements & Owned Land

  30. Data Collection – VDOT • Employment locations • USFS National Forests • USPS National Parks • USFWS National Wildlife Refuges • USFWS National Wetlands Inventory • DCR State Natural Area Preserves and Parks • DCR State Forests • DGIF State Wildlife Management Areas • Local Conservation Lands • The Nature Conservancy Preserves • Private conservation lands • Private conservation easements • Environmental concerns / Superfund sites

  31. Data Collection – VDOT • Virginia Six-Year Improvement Program • Scenic Rivers • Scenic Roads • Smoothed Urban Clusters • Smoothed Urbanized Areas • MPO Areas • DoD Military Installations • NPS Scenic Easements • NPS Holding • VOF Openspace Easements • VOF Property • State Public Fishing Lakes • State Scenic Holdings • USFS Scenic Easements

  32. 1. Define Problem 2. Collect Data Constraint: Protected Parcels 3. Identify Factors 4. Derive Factors 5. Scale Factors 6. Combine Factors 7. Screen Results 8. Analyze Sections 9. Evaluate Alternatives

  33. Conservation Easements Parks and Schools Agricultural and Forestal Districts Constraint: Protected Parcels Source: Fauquier County Department of Community Development; VDOT TPMD

  34. 1. Define Problem 2. Collect Data Indicator: Parcels Near Major Corridors 3. Identify Factors 4. Derive Factors 5. Scale Factors 6. Combine Factors 7. Screen Results 8. Analyze Sections 9. Evaluate Alternatives

  35. Indicator: Parcels Near Major Corridors

  36. Indicator: Parcels Near Major Corridors 0.25 miles

  37. Indicator: Parcels Near Major Corridors 1 mile 0.25 miles

  38. 1. Define Problem 2. Collect Data Indicator: Parcels Near Intersections 3. Identify Factors 4. Derive Factors 5. Scale Factors 6. Combine Factors 7. Screen Results 8. Analyze Sections 9. Evaluate Alternatives

  39. Indicator: Parcels Near Intersections

  40. 1. Define Problem 2. Collect Data Indicator: Parcels Near Population Centers 3. Identify Factors 4. Derive Factors 5. Scale Factors 6. Combine Factors 7. Screen Results 8. Analyze Sections 9. Evaluate Alternatives

  41. Indicator: Parcels Near Population Centers

  42. Indicator: Parcels Near Population Centers Source: 2000 US Census

  43. Indicator: Parcels Near Population Centers

  44. Indicator: Parcels Near Population Centers

  45. Winchester Culpeper Indicator: Parcels Near Population Centers

  46. 0.011 0.155 0.002 0.055 0.002 0.022 0.020 0.348 0.051 0.047 0.013 0.002 0.005 0.179 0.038 1.000 0.003 0.003 Indicator: Parcels Near Population Centers

  47. 1. Define Problem 2. Collect Data Indicator: Parcels Near Employment Centers 3. Identify Factors 4. Derive Factors 5. Scale Factors 6. Combine Factors 7. Screen Results 8. Analyze Sections 9. Evaluate Alternatives

  48. Indicator: Parcels Near Employment Centers

  49. Employees 17,500 2,375 150 30 5 Indicator: Parcels Near Employment Centers Source: Virginia Employment Commission, 2006

  50. Indicator: Parcels Near Employment Centers

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