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CCSS-Water Supply Forecast & General Activities

CCSS-Water Supply Forecast & General Activities. Water Supply Forecast Schedule. 25 Watersheds Forecasted in Bulletin 120. Data Needed: 1. Full Natural Runoff 2. Precipitation 3. Snow Water Content. Components Needed for AJ Water Supply Forecast. Forecast Process:

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CCSS-Water Supply Forecast & General Activities

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  1. CCSS-Water Supply Forecast & General Activities

  2. Water Supply Forecast Schedule

  3. 25 Watersheds Forecasted in Bulletin 120

  4. Data Needed: 1. Full Natural Runoff 2. Precipitation 3. Snow Water Content Components Needed for AJ Water Supply Forecast Forecast Process: • 1. Data Quality Control • 2. Basin AJ Computation • 3. Verification Review • 4. Publish Forecast

  5. BULLETIN 120 – Regression Formula variables FULL NATURAL FLOW (FNF) COMPONENT

  6. Impaired-Water System

  7. Unimpaired-Water System

  8. BULLETIN 120 – Regression Formula variables PRECIPITATION INDEX COMPONENT

  9. Precipitation Gage Pacific House

  10. Precipitation Index Calculations (obs prec + exp prec)/ prec avg

  11. BULLETIN 120 – Regression Formula variables SNOW WATER CONTENT INDEX COMPONENT

  12. Castle Creek #5 (CC5)

  13. Typical Snow Survey Course

  14. Weighing Snow and Snow Tube

  15. Snow Index Calculations-High Elevation (obs swc + exp swc)/ swc avg

  16. Example of Forecast Equation

  17. Forecast Flowchart 2004

  18. Result Published Bulletin 120 Forecast

  19. Other Activities: • Median Forecast Monthly Adjustment Updates • Precip. & Snow Data QC • Annual Forecast Performance Evaluation • Meetings w/ CCSS Cooperating Agencies • Coordination of Summer Field Maintenance • Participation in Climate & Forecasting Meetings • Implement short-term plan to improve f’cast procedures and performance • Develop 5 -year plan for systematic evaluation of forecast methodology • Improve Website Snow Course Maintenance Snow Surveys / Water Supply Forecasting Gage & Pillow Installation Updates to Forecast Probilities Comparison of 80% Probability Ranges for A-J Runoff Update Course Maps D from Median (tAF) Merced River

  20. State Climatologist / Climate Research Climate and Snow Surveys Research • Sierra Nevada Adaptive Management Project (SNAMP) – Multi-agency effort to reduce catastrophic wild fires in the Sierra Nevada – Snow Surveys’ participation has included installing soil moisture and meteorological stations in the American and Merced basins • Contracts with the UC system for climate and snow pack research • Implementation of the USGS’s PRMS model (Feather River Basin) • Cooperative efforts to enhance NOAA’s Hydro Meteorological Test bed in the Southern Sierra Nevada • Installation of gages as part of FCO program and Snow Surveys program • Rebuilt RAWS station in Yosemite (destroyed by wind last season) • Added telemetry to existing sites in the Dinkey Creek watershed as part of Kings River Experimental Forest program Climatologist Office Updates • Revival of weekly Weather and Climate News (Elissa) • Review and archive of State climate and weather records • www.climate.water.ca.gov • Evaluation of Senor data / Identifying questionable senors • Snow Covered Area Reports • Climate Library (aka Mike’s office) • Hydrology Updates • Drought Monitor • Participation in Association of State Climatologist meetings • State Climatologist “Road Show”

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