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The day after solar cycle 23 IHY 2009 September 23, 2009 Yu Yi 1 and Su Yeon Oh 2 1 Dept. of Astronomy & Space Science, Chungnam National University, Korea 2 Bartol Research Institute, Dept. of Physics & Astronomy, University of Delaware. I. Introduction.
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The day after solar cycle 23 IHY 2009 September 23, 2009 Yu Yi1 and Su Yeon Oh 2 1 Dept. of Astronomy & Space Science, Chungnam National University, Korea 2 Bartol Research Institute, Dept. of Physics & Astronomy, University of Delaware
I. Introduction • Many solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic (SIG) activity parameters show a 11-year cycle in sync with Solar Sunspot Number (SSN). • The SSN of about 400 year record is the key parameter in producing the proxy data of parameters with only observations since 1970’s. • In history, the cooling times of Maunder and Dalton Minima are correlated with the low SSN activities.
The US Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has renounced their consensus-based official(?) onset timeof solar cycle 24 two times already : Mar. 2007 (announced on Oct. 2006) =>> Mar. 2008 ( revised on Apr. 2007) =>> Dec. 2008 (revised on May 2009) =>> ? (to be revised one more time) • However, the SIG parameters are still updating the record of unprecedented values. >>> Q: When is the solar activity minimum of solar cycle 23/24 ?
Up to date, only one model of solar forcing on climate (Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, 1997) : weaker IMF >> increased CR flux >> more cloud >> albedo increased >> cooling • However, the cooling and warming patterns different in locations on the globe should be explained. >>> Q: What were SIG activity levels during Dalton and Maunder Minima ? >>> Q: What is the mechanism of solar cooling of the Earth in natural forcing?
Solar Magnetic Fields • Solar Polar Magnetic Field (SPMF) The average magnetic field of the polar region over latitude 55 deg. measured by Stanford Solar Observatory (Scherrer et al. 1977a; Svalgaard, 1978) • Solar Mean Magnetic Field (SMMF) The Sun-as-a-star mean magnetic field of full disk (Scherrer et al. 1977b)
Spotless Sun>> The spotless days 723 days (up to Sep. 22, 2009) in current solar minimum of solar cycle 23/24 are the longest in record. >> The monthly mean SSN of Aug. 2009 was absolute zero.
Abnormality of SIG parameters norm = ( max - min ) / 2 & mean = (max + min ) / 2 abnormality = (P (2008 or 2009) – mean ) / norm [%]
HadCRUT3 is a global mean near-surface temperature. Has it turned into cooling or temporary stagnation ?
WASHINGTON (AFP) – The Arctic sea ice pack thawed to its third smallest size on record during the of 2009 since 1979, US government scientists said.
III. Conclusions The SIG data tell us • Most of SIG activity parameters are still renewing the unprecedented records in 2009. • Highly abnormal parameters are SPMF & IMF. In heliophysical and solar physics : • IMF might be much weaker (~3 nT) during the Dalton and Maunder Minima than previously expected (~6 nT) in proxy calculation. • Suggested research topic: How IMF magnitude variation changes the climate?
Conclusions - 2 Prediction (currently, not a science) • On Aug. 2009, the length of solar cycle 23 becomes longer than 13.25 years. • Cooling period may come like Dalton Minimum or Maunder Minimum in worse case in natural forcing though. History of climate change scenarios • Global Cooling in 1970s : man-made dirty air & aerosols due to fossil fuel • Global Warming in 1990s : man-made CO2 due to fossil fuel • Warming in 21st century : natural forcing by solar activities
Conclusions - 3 In UN politics : • Establish the “International Climate Research Institute” out of political governance on science, where all the related data should be in public domain.