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Executive Board meeting 16 March 2006

Executive Board meeting 16 March 2006. Growth projections GDP growth. Per cent. 2006. 2007. Source: Norges Bank. CPI/HICP core 1) 12-month change. January 2002 – January 2006. Euro area. US. UK. Sweden. Japan. 1) US: CPI excl. food and energy, Japan: CPI excl. fresh food

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Executive Board meeting 16 March 2006

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  1. Executive Board meeting16 March 2006

  2. Growth projections GDP growth. Per cent 2006 2007 Source: Norges Bank

  3. CPI/HICP core1)12-month change. January 2002 – January 2006 Euro area US UK Sweden Japan 1) US: CPI excl. food and energy, Japan: CPI excl. fresh food Euro area and UK: CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Sweden;: CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Source: EcoWin\ Eurostat

  4. 14 March 2006 24 January 2006 Actual and expected key rates1) UK Sweden Euro area US 1)Not adjusted for credit risk Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  5. Yields on 10-year government bonds. 2 January 2004 –14 March 2006 Norway US Germany Japan Sources: Norges Bank and EcoWin

  6. Developments on stock markets internationally 2 January 2002 = 100. 2. January 2002 –14 March 2006 Source: EcoWin

  7. Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices USD per barrel. 3 January 2002 –14 March 2006 14 March 2006 27 October IR 3/05 Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank

  8. Oil futures pricesUSD per barrel light crude. 3 January 2004 –14 March 2006 Delivery in 1 month Delivery in 6 years Source: EcoWin/ NYMEX

  9. US commercial crude oil stocksIn million barrels Full capacity Strategic reserves Highest and lowest values 2000-2004 2006 2005 2004 Source: EIA

  10. Natural gas pricesUSD per 1000 Sm3. Monthly and quarterly figures. January 2003 – February 2006 USA UK Average Statoil and Hydro Norwegian export price Sources: EcoWin, ICE, NYMEX, Statistics Norway, Statoil, Norsk Hydro and Norges Bank

  11. 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) January 2002 – December 2008 I-442), (right-hand scale) Weighted 3-month interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 27 October 2005 14 March 2006 1) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate 2)The last observation is the average for 1 - 15 March 2006. 24 January 2006 Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

  12. CPI-ATE 1)Total and by supplier sector2). Actual inflation and projections from IR 3/05. 12-month change. Per cent. January 2004 - February 2006 Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods 1)A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006. 2) Norges Bank's calculations Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  13. Indicators of underlying inflation12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – February 2006 CPI Weighted median Trimmed mean CPI-ATE1) 1)A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006. Source: Statistics Norway

  14. Number of unemployed (LFS), registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes In thousands. Seasonally adjusted Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes LFS unemployment Registered unemployed Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour

  15. Annual wage growthPer cent. 1996 – 2005 Commercial and savings banks Manufacturing white collar workers Manufacturing employees Construction Hotel and restaurant Source: Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements

  16. Household trend indicator Unadjusted figures. 99 Q1 – 06 Q1 Total Own financial situation Norwegian economy Source: TNS Gallup and Norges Bank

  17. House prices Percentage change on same month previous year. January 1998 – February 2006 Source: Associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF)

  18. Housing startsArea in 1000 m². Seasonally adjusted and trend. January 2000 – January 2006 Trend Seasonally adjusted Source: Statistics Norway

  19. Commercial building startsArea in 1000 m². January 2001 – December 2005 Seasonally adjusted 3-month moving average Source: Statistics Norway

  20. Credit growthTotal debt mainland Norway (C3). Domestic credit to households (C2). 12-month growth. Per cent Total debt non-financial enterprises mainland Norway (C3) Households (C2) Total debt mainland Norway (C3) Source: Norges Bank

  21. Capacity utilisationShare of Norges Bank's regional network reporting that they have some or considerable problems in accommodating an increase in demand Source: Norges Bank

  22. Sight deposit rate in baseline scenario and market expectations regarding the sight deposit rate1)Per cent. 06 Q1 – 09 Q4 Baseline scenario Market expectations concerning the sight deposit rate 1) Derived from estimated forward rates. The sight deposit rate was reduced by a credit risk premium and technical difference of 0.20 percentage point. The grey shaded interval shows the highest and lowest interest rates in the market's sight deposit rate scenario in the period 27 Feb – 10 Mar 06. Source: Norges Bank

  23. Baseline scenario in Inflation Report 1/06 Import-weighted exchange rate Sight deposit rate CPI-ATE Output gap Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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