The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction

1. The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 12, 2016 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

2. Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology

3. Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits remain over large parts of India, particularly over southern peninsular India, where week after week, for the many weeks now, the rainfall has been very much below normal over the southeastern state of Tamilnadu. Mild deficits are also emerging all across Australia. Elsewhere the 90 day rainfall amounts are at near or well above normal levels.

4. Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days the rainfall was much below normal over southeastern India, particularly over coastal regions of Tamilnadu state.. Rainfall deficits are also beginning to emerge over many parts of northern and eastern Australia and eastern Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere in the region, the rainfall amounts are above normal, particularly over southeastern China.

5. Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, towards the tail end, severe tropical cyclonic storm Vardah is impacting southeast coast of India with heavy rainfall, where it has been very dry. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), with almost two months into the 3-month long northeast winter monsoon (Oct-Dec), the rainfall for the whole country continues to stay highly deficient by about -44 % across the country. With the failure of the winter monsoon so far, severe drought conditions exist in the southern India especially in the state of Tamilnadu.

6. Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.

7. Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

8. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

10. Summary For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits remain over large parts of India, particularly over southern peninsular India, where week after week, for the many weeks now, the rainfall has been very much below normal over the southeastern state of Tamilnadu. Mild deficits are also emerging all across Australia. Elsewhere the 90 day rainfall amounts are at near or well above normal levels. For the past 30 days the rainfall was much below normal over southeastern India, particularly over coastal regions of Tamilnadu state.. Rainfall deficits are also beginning to emerge over many parts of northern and eastern Australia and eastern Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere in the region, the rainfall amounts are above normal, particularly over southeastern China. In this past week, towards the tail end, severe tropical cyclonic storm Vardah is impacting southeast coast of India with heavy rainfall, where it has been very dry. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), with more than two months into the 3-month long northeast winter monsoon (Oct-Dec), the rainfall for the whole country continues to stay highly deficient by about -44 % across the country. With the failure of the winter monsoon so far, severe drought conditions exist in the southern India especially in the state of Tamilnadu. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting almost little or no rainfall thus contributing further to the already drought conditions in the southern peninsular India. Less rainfall is also forecast over northeastern Australia and large parts of Indonesia.

11. Demise of the Asian Monsoon

12. Onset of the Australian Monsoon

13. Climatology