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NUOPC. National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Status Brief for ESMF Steven Payne . December 17, 2008. Potential Benefits. A National System to focus on National Needs Accelerated improvement of a National Weather Operational Prediction Capability Forecast Accuracy

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national unified operational prediction capability nuopc status brief for esmf steven payne

NUOPC

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)Status Brief for ESMFSteven Payne

December 17, 2008

potential benefits
Potential Benefits
  • A National System to focus on National Needs
  • Accelerated improvement of a National Weather Operational Prediction Capability
    • Forecast Accuracy
    • Quantified Forecast uncertainty
  • Improved agency capability to drive downstream applications
  • Increased efficiency through use of shared resources
  • Better operational backup
  • Enhanced research coordination
  • Response to GAO, FCMSSR and DoD IG recommendations

2

nuopc update
NUOPC Update
  • 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary operational NWP
  • 2006 - Reviewed opportunities and alternatives; selected coordinated Global NWP as initial focus area
  • 2007 - Developed initial concepts and project plan for NUOPC
    • Dialog with Stakeholders March, 2007
    • Approved by Tri-Agency principals group (DOC US for Ocean and Atmospheres, AF/A30-W, and Navy N84)
  • 2008 – Appointed Project Manager
    • Executing NUOPC Phase I
    • ESG approved interim committee chairmen
    • Second dialog with Stakeholders April, 2008
    • Initiated interim committee process May, 2008
nuopc implementation schedule
NUOPC Implementation Schedule

FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Prelim Phase I

Implementation Phase II

Beta Test Phase III

IOC-2

FOC

IOC-1

MGMT REPORTG

MOA

Quarterly Updates to Principals

STAFFING

TT PM, TEMPS

Full Staff

CODE CONV.

INIT.STANDARDS

SOFTWARE CONVERSION

MAINTAIN

OPERATIONS

CONOPS, COMMS, IA

PROTOTYPE OPS

ENS OPS TEST

FOC

STANDARDS

PARTICIPATION

OUTREACH

Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda

DTC/VTC

DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS

EXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP

slide5

NUOPC Management Structure

Air Force

(A3O-W)

Dr. Lewis

Navy

(CNO N84)

RADM Gove

NOAA

(Administrator)

VADM Lautenbacher

Executive Steering Group

Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) &

Col John Murphy (AFWA)

Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) &

RDML David Titley (CNMOC)

Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) &

Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR)

Executive Secretary

CAPT Michael Angove

LCDR Kurt Zegowitz

NUOPC Project Manager - Fred Toepfer

Deputy Project Manager - TBD

Agency

Liaisons

John Zapotocny

Brian Moore

Joel Cline

Jeremy Potter

Kim Curry

Steve Payne

NUOPC Staff

Paul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley

Unified

Ensemble Operations

Mike Clancy

Interim

Committees

Common

Model Architecture

Scott Sandgathe

Technology

Transition Process

Marc Hidalgo

expectations
Expectations
  • NUOPC is an agreement between the three operational production facilities to accelerate technological advances and improve efficiency through collaboration.
  • Every attempt should be made to avoid significant disruption of the operational centers or to impede developmental headway.
  • A major objective of NUOPC is to entrain the broader research and development community into supporting research critical to the success of the operational centers.
interim committees
Three designated committees:

Common Model Architecture Committee

Technical Transition Process Committee

Unified Ensemble Operations Committee

Potential additional panels include Technical Transition and Information Assurance.

Interim Committees will be split into attending members and review members in order to reduce travel and impact on members and also address FACA concerns.

Interim committees only operate during Phase I. Permanent committees chartered in Phase II to maintain, evolve standards, monitor compliance.

Interim Committees
committee membership
Committee Membership
  • Chairman from NUOPC staff or operational center
  • Primary input from operational centers, agency R&D activities
  • Broad community participation via coordination and review membership
  • Working level knowledge but able to represent constituency
  • NUOPC staff responsible for meeting minutes, draft reports, schedule
common model architecture committee
Common Model Architecture Committee

Task: Develop common architecture (ESMF) and coding standards as necessary to accelerate transition of research and avoid unnecessary duplication of effort.

  • Agree to ESMF architecture, degree and detail of implementation.
  • Agree to additional software or hardware standards required to promote interoperability.
  • Minimize disruption to operational centers and existing development efforts.
  • Estimate cost and time to implement.
committee issues cma
Committee Issues - CMA

Standard Model Architecture - ESMF

How deep to implement?

How to resolve & align present NRL/EMC approaches

NASA MAPL and European OASIS?

Standard model structure

Unified coding standards (i,j,k, etc.)

Exchangeable model technology at component level

Standard ensemble prediction infrastructure

Standard I/O interfaces

Standard model metadata

Cost & time to implement

11

technology transition process committee
Technology Transition Process Committee

Task: Align agency transition processes to streamline certification of new technology and reduce duplicative recertification among the Tri-Agencies.

  • Define common operational needs and translate to common requirements
  • Develop a common research agenda and direction
  • Develop the VTC/DTC/VSP CONOPS
    • Funding, support, security, etc.
  • Align agency processes to transition new technology to operations
committee issues ttp
Committee Issues - TTP

DTC/VTC/VSP

At center, at other site, multiple locations, virtual, what support, common metrics, etc., etc.

Common research agenda (requirements, agenda, investment)

How do we get requirements from the three agencies? How to we merge the list? How do we turn requirements into a research agenda? How do we get resource sponsors to sign up to fund agenda?

Aligned transition process

What is important to align? How will it improve life?

Info assurance

How do we guarantee code is not corrupt?

How do we meet agency code release requirements and still give broad community access?

Cost & time to implement

14

unified ensemble operations committee
Unified Ensemble Operations Committee

Task: Develop a unified ensemble operational concept (CONOPS) to allow reliable production and exchange of ensemble products.

  • Identify unified ensemble operations requirements including:
    • Standard output format
    • Ensemble configuration
    • Product delivery schedule
    • Process for assembly and dissemination
    • Common post processing, if appropriate
    • Network security
    • Coordinated software update cycle
    • Data archival processes (who, what, where, how)
    • Communications, bandwidth and hardware acquisition
  • Estimate cost and time to implement
committee goals
Committee Goals
  • Minimize operational center disruption
  • Achieve common architecture objectives while sustaining developmental headway
  • Achieve full stakeholder support
  • Develop well-defined standards that will focus research community participation and accelerate development
  • Develop standards and methodology that can evolve with changing technology
  • Operational centers involved up front (primary stakeholders)
schedule deliverables
Schedule & Deliverables
  • Membership approved June-July 2008.
  • Initial meetings summer 2008
  • Draft final report for external coordination March 2009.
  • Revised committee reports for Agency coordination May 2009.
  • Internal Agency approval June 2009.
  • ESG Approval August 2009.
launching nuopc phase i

Follow up

Committees/Panels work tasks

Launching NUOPC Phase I

1FY08 2FY08 3FY08 4FY08 1FY09 2FY09 3FY09 4FY09

Phase I Tasks

Establish Committees

Nominate

Apr 08

IOC-1

Committee Tasks

Begin Phase II Implementation

Sep 09

PM & Staff Review

Review committees’ progress

Apr 08

Jul 08

Oct 08

Jan 09

Apr 08

Interagency Review & Coord

Coord

Budget, IPLAN, CONOPS

PM & Staff integrate Committee task results

Committee Reports to PM & Staff

ESG Approval

Decision Brief to Principals Staff

Draft Standards Reports