Presentation Transcript

1. Sustainability and Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific

   Victoria Keener, PhD East-West Center April 15, 2013
2. Most Common Greenhouse Gases (GHG) Necessary for life on Earth – without them, it would be about 33°C (91°F) colder Water vapor (H2O) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Ozone (O3)
3. An 800,000 Year History of Carbon Dioxide http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbgUE04Y-Xg&feature=youtu.be
4. NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio Data provided by Robert B. Schmunk (NASA/GSFC GISS) Global average temperatures have been above average for the past 332 months (about 27 years).
5. Predicted Global Warming The world is on track to live this future Even if we kept CO2 emissions at 2000 levels, there will still be residual warming. The question is how much the eventual temperature rise will be. So far, scientists have underestimated the rise in almost every variable.
6. Indicators of a Changing Climate in the Pacific Islands Region (Figure courtesy Susan Yamamoto, GeoVision)
7. What are some global impacts of climate change? Changing precipitation patterns Changed agricultural productivity Food security Increasing severity of extreme events Flood, drought, intense storms Sea level rise Migration from low-lying areas Shifts in ecosystems and fisheries Dying coral reefs (ocean acidification, water temperature) Tourism impacts
8. What are regional impacts? Average, max, and min air temperatures rising Fresh water supplies more limited Coastal flooding and erosion Changes in marine ecosystems Images courtesy: Susan Yamamoto, US FWS, Miguel Castrence, Melissa Finucane) Native plant & animal stress/extinction Increasing migration Changing rainfall amounts and patterns Threats to agriculture & indigenous cultures Changing frequency and intensity of wind, waves, and storms
9. Public health and the spread of disease Vector-borne, water-borne, and respiratory diseases (due to air pollution and aeroallergens), are major concerns (WHO) Increasing temperature creates more habitat for mosquitoes Drought and flood decreases the quality of potable water Industrial/urban development without planning decreases air quality
10. Decreasing Freshwater Resources The Aral Sea has shrunk dramatically over the last 30 years. As the sea has shrunk, there have been noticeable changes in the local climate, contaminated dust storms, the loss of drinking water and the local fishing industry.
11. Precipitation Patterns are Changing Observations show that most places in the Pacific Region have received decreased average precipitation Most projections show increasing average precipitation, but altered seasonal timing and changed intensity and frequency of storms and droughts PIRCA, 2012, Courtesy Oliver Elison Timm
12. Agriculture & Food Security Projected increase in monsoon rainfall (more crop growth ), but higher air temperatures for extended times and increased plant stresses (fewer crops )
13. Fisheries and Reefs There are increasing observed trends in SST and ocean acidification 2080-2099 The ocean will continue to become more acidic Levels of primary production will be shifted; there will be countries that benefit and countries that are negatively impacted ↓34% ↑30% ↓28% Projected changes in primary production, From Polovina et al., 2011
14. By 2050, many coral reefs may bleach annually Future reef bleaching frequency based on IPCC A1b (business as usual) emissions scenarios, Burke et al., 2011; data adapted from Donner, 2009.
15. Loss of Biodiversity Land use change– development and high elevation ecosystems disproportionately warming Coral reef loss due to ocean warming and acidification Invasive species more adaptive to changing climate, pushing out endemic and endangered species
16. Increased Flooding and Landslides Climate changes compound the pressures on the environment Rapid urbanization Industrialization Economic development Loss of agricultural revenue and additional costs for managing water resources, coastlines, and disease and other health risks will depress economic activity Natural disasters during the last century in the Asia/ Pacific region: 91%of the world’s total death 49% of the world’s total damage Burma, Tropical Storm Nargis, May 2008
17. Sea Level Rise (SLR) is Non-uniform & Non-steady Sea-level trend for 1993-2010 from Aviso altimeter. Merrifield 2011 The highest rates of regional SLR have occurred in the western tropical Pacific. Since the early 1990s, natural climate variability has increased the strength of the trade winds There will be increased stress on the western Pacific due to SLR, combined with seasonal high tides, the occurrence of La Niña, and storms
18. Sea Level is Rising Since the 1990s, the rate of globally averaged sea-level rise has been ~3.3 mm per year This is twice the estimated rate for the 20th century as a whole Parris et al, in press Climate model projections (that do not include ice-sheet contributions) are for an 0.2 – 2.0 meter rise in global sea level by 2100
19. Increasing Average Sea Level Means More Frequent Extreme Sea Levels Extreme sea level events occur when high tides combine with some non-tidal change in water level (such as from tropical and extra-tropical storms) Images courtesy of USFWS, Kosrae image courtesy of Kosrae Islands Resource Management Agency staff Increased coastal inundation from extreme water level events will threaten communities and wildlife
20. This all sounds horrible…what can we do? Community Resilience The key to preparing for long-term uncertain changes is adapting to short-term changes we can already observe Food security, flooding, erosion, loss of natural ecosystems, sustainable energy and transport Uncertainty is no excuse for inaction Projects that benefit the community no matter WHAT happens in the future “Win-Win” scenarios
21. Nearshore Reef Ecosystems and Erosion Erosion Control of gullies in Hawaii – preventing sediment from covering the reefs
22. Climate change will force human migration There is no single legal entity that governs climate migrants Projections of the number of global climate migrants by 2050 range from 25 million to 1 billion Unlike other populations, many Pacific Islanders will not be able to migrate domestically, as their entire country is only a few feet above sea level
23. The Question of Equity: Countries Resized According to CO2 Emissions
24. Countries Sized by # of Participants at the 2010 UN Climate Conference
25. To Download the PIRCA Reports (regional): http://www.eastwestcenter.org/PIRCA To Download the PACCSAP Reports (regional): http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/PCCSP/publications.html To Download the 2007 IPCC Reports (global): http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml Victoria Keener, PhD KeenerV@EastWestCenter.org Fellow, East-West Center Pacific RISA www.PacificRISA.org Photo: Diana Kim, 2012