1 / 19

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW. Janet Kelly Urban Studies Institute University of Louisville. Gross Domestic Product. Nationally, 2% growth in 2013, about the same as last year Reinstating payroll taxes will probably shave a point from GDP

naava
Download Presentation

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Janet KellyUrban Studies InstituteUniversity of Louisville

  2. Gross Domestic Product • Nationally, 2% growth in 2013, about the same as last year • Reinstating payroll taxes will probably shave a point from GDP • A good resolution to the “fiscal cliff” issues might speed up productivity, improve consumer confidence • The one year extension of tax breaks or new or leased equipment should spur capital spending by business in 2013

  3. Real GDP is the output of goods and services produced by labor and property (chained 2005 dollars)

  4. Interest Rates • Looks like the Fed will hold fast to its near-zero federal funds rate • Prime at about 3.25% • Bank CDs at about 1% yield • Inflation should tick up a little • Look for about 2.3%, mainly due to fuel and food • Core inflation (excludes volatile fuel and food) stays around 2%

  5. Housing • The experts are predicting a big rebound year, getting us back to 2007 levels • Metro areas are seeing prices rise already • According to Greater Louisville Association of Realtors, home sales up 15% in 2012 • Median price $140,000 • Historically low mortgage rates (average 3.3% on conventional fixed rate) will help reduce the glut of unsold homes • About 1/3 of sales are to first-time buyers

  6. Employment • Job growth steady, but slow • Unemployment to drop only to 7.5% from 7.8% at the end of 2012 • Economy is still down by 4.8 million jobs from pre-recession numbers • Employment numbers not moving much for certain groups (nationally) • African Americans at 14% • Hispanics or Latino ethnicity at 10% • Less than high school diploma at 12%

  7. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Local Area Unemployment Statistics

  8. MSA Population 20-64 Years Employment by Race

  9. Louisville MSA Employment by Age

  10. Louisville MSA Employment by Gender and Educational Attainment

  11. Job Growth by Sector, Louisville MSA

  12. Concluding Thoughts • Location quotient • Transportation and warehousing = 2.08 • BLS growth projections 2010-2020 • General freight trucking = 18% • Freight transportation arrangement = 23% • Warehousing and storage = 26% • Nonscheduled air transportation = 36% • Will our economic development policy build on our strengths?

  13. THANK YOU janet.kelly@louisville.edu 502-852-2435

More Related