The Impact of Emerging Societies on National Security Synthesis Outbrief

1. The Impact of Emerging Societies on National SecuritySynthesis Outbrief

2. Members of the Synthesis Group • Dr. Dan Maxwell • Dr. Carol Woody • MAJ Ian McCulloh • Dr. Donna Blake • Dr. Tom Baldwin • Dr. Michael Samsa • Mr. Greg Keethler

3. Overall Observations • There was an interesting and new mix of disciplines coming together at a MORS Workshop. • A consequence of this is a lot of energy was invested in learning to communicate – different perspectives & vocabularies • Beginning to make our way through this is in itself a contribution to the community • Most of the working group time was spent giving and listening to presentations. • There is need for a multidisciplinary effort for meeting the nation’s needs • Problem Owners (Operators and Policy Makers) • OR Analysts • Modelers & Simulators • Network Scientists • Social Scientists (Many disciplines) • Historians • …….. etc • Even some Engineers

4. Importance of Emerging Societies • Definition: The concept of an “emerging society” refers to a change from one social state to another of a society or social group – not just a change from an “old” society to a “modern” one, as is often portrayed in the popular press. • This becomes relevant when a threat or opportunity is perceived • Internal instability and conflict sometimes threaten US interests • Economic (e.g. access to natural resources) • Value Based (e.g. Genocide is bad) • Direct Threat to US (e.g. WMD or Attack on the US) • This implies a multi-dimensional set of analysis challenges. • Intelligence / Assessment – What is the situation and why to we care? • Intervention – What are we going to do about it? • At Multiple levels – Strategic, Tactical, Operational

5. Exemplar Analysis Questions • The role of the military is changing. • This is Bigger than the DoD.

6. The Importance of Understanding Complex Adaptive Systems • Societies are complex adaptive systems. This tells us • They can not be “controlled” • Interventions are one of many stimuli in the system • The “system” coevolves • A “Side X” action changes how “Side Y” behaves. • This is how macro behavior emerges • There is still a place for reductionism • Even though the whole is greater than the sum of the parts there are still parts • Analysis requires that we understand the parts • This is where macro models fall short • This is where correlation falls short • This is where there are disconnects between research disciplines

7. State of the Art (1) • There is almost universally a disconnect between micro and macro theories • Economics • Thermodynamics • Particle physics • ……. • A combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques are available and continually maturing independently Qualitative Quantitative Optimization Narrative Descriptions

8. State of the Art (2) • Network related sciences are mature and advancing; capitalizing on rapidly developing computer and supporting sciences • Empowered by Computational Capability • Very large networks • Longitudinal data • Multi-modal data • Network Metrics • Measures • Statistics • Information Communication • Visualization • Sonification • Immersion techniques • Network Simulation

9. State of the Art (2) • Other computational techniques are emerging and maturing that are also of potential value. E.g. • Multi-Agent Simulation • Ontologies • Databases • Text processing – Automated entity extraction

10. State of the Practice (in DoD) • Many of the maturing tools are making their way into application. • This can be a good thing -- Iff the underlying sciences are not abused • Current use of a tool is not evidence of validity • Levels of V&V and compatibility with the intended task varies greatly. • Translation of traditional V&V is unclear in these kinds of models • Heavy emphasis on comparison to historical developments • Subject Matter Expertise involved emphasizes practitioners versus theoreticians

11. State of the Practice (2) • Many of our mental models for framing decisions, analyses, and models are a bad fit for the social organizations and issues we face. • Actors are different (Tribes vs. Governments) • Variables are different (PK vs. Police present for duty) • Measures of effectiveness are well defined for military v. military – nation state activities • Goes to local optima at the expense of bigger goals • May foreclose other options • Congruence between long term goals and short term objectives

12. State of the Practice (3) • Current data is often very unreliable for the issues we face. • Sometimes due to the source • Sometimes due to classification • Sometimes due to weak meta data • Sometimes due to sketchiness

13. Major Findings • The discourse across disciplines is beginning, through MORS and other efforts, the gap is large. • There is mature science available that may be helpful. • There is sometimes a disconnect between the science and some of the operationally applied “tools”. • Well intentioned misapplication. • Because the data isn’t there.

14. Synthesis Level Recommendations to MORS and DoD • We need to find ways to bridge the schisms across disciplines if we are to make progress in gaining an understanding that is useful to our sponsors. • Real Multi-disciplinary teams • Need & Requirements Driven • Maturity of model & science needs to Guide Team composition • Develop a common sense of purpose & improved ability to communicate • Some of it is leadership • Some of it is finding ways to work across disciplines

15. Recommendations (2) • Basic and applied Research into multi-agent (Agent Based) simulations is necessary • Simulation Functionality (environment, agent behaviors) • Experimental Designs for analysis • Validation and verification (It’s a different world) • Expectation management is key • Basic and Applied Research in the underlying Social Sciences is Required. Some ideas are: • Empirical Approaches to collecting field data • Validating collected data • Looking at the intersection of disciplines