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Perspectives for the new Dilma Rousseff Government (2011-2014)

This article provides an overview of the 2010 campaign, second-round results, regional division, breakdown of Congress, and the transition and organization of the "new" government under President Dilma Rousseff. It also discusses possible picks for cabinet ministers and Brazil's international ratings.

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Perspectives for the new Dilma Rousseff Government (2011-2014)

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  1. “Perspectives for the new Dilma Rousseff Government (2011 – 2014)” David Fleischer Institute of Political Science University of Brasília The Brazil Institute The Woodrow Wilson Center Washington, DC November 17, 2010

  2. The 2010 Campaign - President Lula with 80% approval rating - He picked Dilma Rousseff “his” candidate - She left PDT to join PT in 1999 - PT accepts this choice - She had never run for elected office - Considerable experience - MM&E (2003-2005) - Casa Civil (2005-2010) - Daughter of Bulgarian immigrant - Former guerrilla fighter - Arrested by military & tortured

  3. April - Dilma & Serra tied at 37% - Ciro Gomes (PSB) leaves race - Marina Silva (PV) at 12% June - PT-PMDB coalition + 8 parties - Michel Temer as Vice - PSDB-DEM coalition + 4 parties - Índio da Costa as Vice Early September - Dilma peaked at 57% of valid vote - Casa Civil scandal exploded - Dilma declined  52% valid vote - Dilma voters  Marina Silva

  4. Dilma Rousseff Track of % of Polling Inst.Voter PreferenceValid Vote Datafolha 51%  47% 51.6% Ibope 51%  50% 54.3% Vox Populi 52%  49% 55.7% Sensus 50.5%  47.5% 54.7%

  5. First Round Results % Valid CandidatesPartyNº VotesVote D. Rousseff PT 47,651,434 46.91 J. Serra PSDB 33,132,283 32.61 M. Silva PV 19,636,359 19.33

  6. Second Round Campaign (October) - “Tit-for-Tat” accusations - Dilma portrayed as pro-abortion - Serra’s wife allegedly had abortion in US - Dilma “tolerates” corruption - Corruption in Serra government in SP  Dilma maintains “comfortable” lead

  7. Second Round Results % Valid CandidatesPartyNº VotesVote Dilma PT 55,752,092 56.05 Serra PSDB 43,710,422 43.95 DIlma Rousseff: Poll Inst.Track Valid Vote Datafolha 53.9%  55.6% Ibope 53% 57% Sensus 52.3%  58.6% Vox Populi 54% 57%

  8. Dilma – Serra Regional Division - Serra won 11 states (54% GDP) - South, Central-West + SP - Dilma won 16 states - Northeast, North, MG, RJ, DF - Some “recriminations” against NE - Complaints about loss in MG

  9. Breakdown of Congress (2011) In 2011, Dilma Rousseff will have stronger majorities in Congress - Especially in the Senate Pres. Lula campaigned to defeat SIX opposition Senators - Tasso Jereissati (PSDB-CE) - Arthur Virgílio (PSDB-AM) - Marco Maciel (DEM-PE) - Mão Santa (PSC-PI) - Heráclito Fortes (DEM-PI) - Efraim Moraes (DEM-PB) Plus Cesar Maia (DEM-RJ)

  10. Sept. Feb. Senate20102011 Dilma PT-PMDB-PSB- PR-PP-PDT- 42 54 PCdoB-PRB-PSC (51.9%) (67.7%) Opposition PSDB-DEM-PPS- 37 27 PTB-PMN-PSoL (45.7%) (33.3%) Other 2 0 (2.5%) TOTAL8181

  11. Sept. Feb. Chamber20102011 Dilma PT-PMDB-PSB-PR- PP-PDT-PCdoB- 338 353 PRB-PSC-PTC (65.9%) (68.8%) Opposition PSDB-DEM-PPS- PTB-PMN-PSoL- 158 139 PRTB (30.8%) (27.1%) Other PV-PHS-PAN- 17 19 PSL-PRP (3.3%) (3.7%) TOTAL513513  Turnover only 44.25%

  12. A new bloc is formed in Congress: PTB-PP-PR  103 deputies in 2011 In 2003 & 2004 this same group blocked the political reform This bloc will negotiate committee assignments & chairs in the Chamber  Allocate Senate & Chamber Presidents - Rotation, PT + PMDB??

  13. The Lula  Dilma Transition - Organizing the “new” Gov’t. - Dilma’s coordination team - Antônio Palocci - José Eduardo Cardozo - José Eduardo Dutra (Pres. PT) - Michel Temer (Pres. PMDB) - Initial Coordination “tasks” 1) Articulate with party coalition 2) Filter names for cabinet 3) Articulate 2011 budget – Congress - avoid cost over runs and increased spending

  14. Market pressures  economic team  Perhaps named by November 20 - Finance Minister - Sec. for Economic Policy - Central Bank President - Planning Minister Dilma: Cabinet one-third women???  11 out of 34 cabinet ministers?? - Lula has only three women in 2010  Like “Blair’s Babes” in 1997  José Luís Zapatero (2004) – 50% women  Michelle Bachelet (2006) – 10 out of 20

  15. Dilma’s possible picks (women): - Maria das Graças Foster - Miriam Belchior - Tereza Campello - Tânia Bacelar - Clara Levin Ant - Márcia Lopes - Isabela Teixeira - Ideli Salvatti (PT-SC) - Gleisi Hoffmann (PT-PR) - Marta Suplicy (PT-SP) - Vanessa Grazziotin (PCdoB-AM) - Lídice da Mata (PSB-BA) - Maria do Rosário (PT-RS) - Iriny Lopes (PT-RS) - Manuela D’Avila (PCdoB-RS)

  16. Dilma’s other possible picks (men): - Antônio Palocci - José Eduardo Cardozo - Paulo Bernardo - Fernando Pimentel - Guido Mantega - Aloísio Mercadante - Nelson Barbosa - Giles Azevedo - Gilberto Carvalho - Alexandre Padilha - Luciano Coutinho (PMDB) - Nelson Jobim (PMDB) - Edison Lobão (PMDB) - Henrique Meirelles (PMDB) - Alexandre Tombini - Ciro Gomes (PSB) - Márcio Fortes (PP) - Blairo Maggi (PR) - Abílio Diniz

  17. Brazil  International Ratings in Nov. 2010 1) IMF  7th Economy, GDP $2.2 trillion 2) World Bank – “Doing Business” - 2006, Brazil 119th out of 155 nations - 2010, Brazil 124th out of 183 nations - 2011, Brazil 127th out of 183 nations 3) United Nations – Human Development Index - 74th out of 169 nations (0.699) - could have been worse (0.599) - if inequalities considered - income, education & health - “Women’s Watch” – 80th in gender equality 4) Forbes magazine - “Dilma 16th most powerful person on earth” - after Angela Merkel & Sonia Gandhi

  18. Dilma Rousseff’s Challenges for 2011 1) Infrastructure bottlenecks & logistics - airports, air travel, air cargo  currently at the limit in Brazil - private sector via concessions  remove Air Force “control” - ocean ports – backlogs & costs - expand capacity via concessions - highways – added costs (“custo Brasil”) - railroads – further expansion - minerals + grain - Caterpillar, locomotive factory - electricity supply - must keep ahead of demand

  19. 2) Reform Agenda – 2011 an odd year - tax/fiscal reform - new federalism pact?? - labor legislation - reduce social overhead costs - currently 103% - social security reform - private sector INSS - review of public sector - political reform - attempted in 2003, 2007 & 2009 - close PR list - prohibit PR coalitions - threshold clause (1%, 2% or 3%??) - Senator alternates - via sub-lists? - campaign finance?

  20. 3) Education - upgrade, enhance & expand - universities & technical schools - quality performance primary/secondary - not just quantity  bad rating on HDI 4) Relations with States - resurrect CPMF  as CSS - restructure state debts - established in 1997/1998 - IGP-DI + 6%  SP tries to lead (destabilize Dilma)

  21. 5) Control of federal expenditures - extreme pressures on transition  some R$180 billion extra? 6) Eradicate misery & poverty - bolsa família - upward social mobility - GDP growth  new jobs - link school and job training 7) Basic sanitation  quality of life - water & sewerage

  22. 8) Regulate pre-salt petroleum exploration - which management model? - stronger State control?  channel profits to development - avoid the “curse of petroleum” 9) Reaction to global “FX warfare”  G-20 in Seoul - undervalued US dollars flood Brazil - Brazil might run trade deficit in 2011  monetary/fiscal policies - reduce debt/GDP ratio, 42%  30% - reduce Selic rate (7% or 8%)?? - new Central Bank president? - reduce federal expenditures - heavier tax on US dollar inflow  Allow Real to “float up” to R$1,80 FX rate

  23. 10) Industrial policy for key sectors - promote technological innovation - sustained development

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