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Meteorology and Space Weather Interaction. Dr Mike Keil mike.keil@metoffice.gov.uk ESWW, November 2005. Common data sources. GPS Radio Occultation observations is a good example. Humidity and temperature profiles from GPS Techniques can be applied to assimilate TEC

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slide1

Meteorology and Space Weather Interaction

Dr Mike Keil

mike.keil@metoffice.gov.uk

ESWW, November 2005

common data sources
Common data sources

GPS Radio Occultation observations is a good example

Humidity and temperature profiles from GPS

Techniques can be applied to assimilate TEC

COSMIC: Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate

6 space craft – provides TEC + more, allows operational monitoring

Data available in near real time for scientific research

www.cosmic.ucar.edu

not just data sources
Not just data sources

There are issues relevant to SW that have already been tackled by the met community:

  • Bias correction of data
  • Assimilation of derived products or raw values?
  • Ensembles
  • Pain before the gain – increasing complexity
    • Potential for development
  • Timeliness of data
  • Balance between science and user-applications
scientific collaboration
Scientific collaboration

Met models are pushing higher thus leading to potential areas of research:

  • Coupling between weather and space weather models
    • Lower boundary forcings? Eg gravity and planetary waves
    • Upwards/downwards control?
    • Fully coupled models (whole atmosphere approach)?
  • Applying data assimilation expertise to space weather assimilation
    • Radio occultation assimilation experience
  • Sensible to have a joined-up approach to common issues
  • Data available from the British Atmospheric Data Centre:

www.badc.nerc.ac.uk

the future numerical space weather prediction
The future: numerical space weather prediction

Within a decade (?) there will be a requirement for operational numerical space weather prediction

  • Why? Primarily military with commercial applications
  • How?
    • Following the framework used in operational NWP
    • Learning from met experience in key areas
    • Utilising the facilities of NMS eg supercomputers, observation supply, 24/7 capabilities, down-stream dissemination to end users
    • This way of working already exists in operational oceanography at the Met Office
conclusions
Conclusions
  • The development over many years of NWP in the met domain presents a framework for Numerical Space Weather Prediction
  • Fully establish the “virtuous cycle” (observation→ analysis→ modelling→ science→ observation→….) for SW
  • Some pain can be avoided by learning from the met community!
  • Science can be pushed forward through collaboration on common issues
  • Operational Space Weather within a decade?
    • National Met Services offer crucial facilities
    • Successful partnerships of this kind already exist
slide7

Discussion

(non-compulsory)

slide8

The virtuous cycle

observations

science

assimilation

modelling