America Divided? Exploring Voter Turnout and Political Division

1. AMERICA DIVIDED? Part 3 November 8th, 2005

2. America Divided? • central thesis • individual Americans are more politicized • Americans are divided along an ideological spectrum into two broad groups • this division has a strong geographic orientation

3. America Divided? • counterargument • American people are not divided • they are... • disaffected and apathetic • centrist (rather than divided into two distinct ideological camps) • relatively unified (more unified than divided) • geographical divide is largely illusory • created by political institutions • reinforced by the media

4. Voter Turnout • levels of voter turnout • two trends to be explained • low voter turnout • declining voter turnout

5. Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout • registration procedures • requires registration • motor voter laws • why is voter registration even an issue? • voter fatigue/strategic voting

6. Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout • high opportunities for mass participation • range of elective offices • primary elections • referendums and initiatives

7. President US House of Representatives US Senate state governor state representative state senate state attorney general state auditor state treasurer secretary of state county commissioner sheriff clerks of courts mayor city councillors school committee members Elections in Massachusetts

8. Referendums and Initiatives – What are They? • What are They? • initiative – proposal to put some issue to a referendum • requires 3%-15% of voters to sign • proposition • referendum question put directly on the ballot

9. Referendums and Initiatives – How and When Are They Used? • allowed by 24 states • half of all initiatives take place in five states • Oregon, California, North Dakota, Colorado, Arizona • success rate • 50% once they are on the ballot • California • 8-12 propositions on EACH ballot • some propositions of VERY considerable importance • November 8, 2005 elections

10. Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout • high opportunities for mass participation • range of elective offices • primary elections • referendums and initiatives • actual participation • primaries (5%-20%) • Presidential general election (45%-55%) • Congressional elections (every two years) – 35%-40%

11. Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout • strategic voting • vote in elections that are a close race • vote in elections with candidates that voter has strong feelings for/against • vote in elections with issues of relevance to voter • the “Seinfeld” election in 2002? • vote in elections where multiple offices/issues in play • esp. Presidential elections

12. Explaining Voter Turnout – Low Voter Turnout • expectation of lower voter turnout • many more opportunties to vote • lower voter turnout at each • voting is much more demanding • lower voter turnout • primary voting • range of candidates already narrowed prior to general election • winner-take-all electoral system • wasted votes

13. Explaining Voter Turnout – Declining Voter Turnout • alternative hypotheses • voter disaffection • voters apathetic and do not feel that their vote will make a difference • voter satisfaction • voters are not sufficiently dissatisfied with the system to take the effort to get out and vote

14. Explaining Voter Turnout – Declining Voter Turnout • contributing factors • demographics • less effort at voter mobilization by parties • sense that voting matters less • voting less likely to have an impact on the outcome of elections • perception of fewer differences between party • voting less likely to have an impact on the outcome of elections • less interest in who wins

15. Explaining Voter Turnout – Declining Voter Turnout • incumbency • safe seats vs. contested seats/key race • importance of redistricting • trends • elections are increasingly referendums on incumbents • incumbent has to do something to lose • challenger finds it hard to get money...hard to break cycle • increasingly powerful role of interest groups

16. Voter Turnout -- Main Point! • the American political system is geared towards providing considerable opportunities for mass political participation • actual levels of mass participation do not reach the “ideal” • relatively low levels of voter turnout may not be particularly suprising • declining levels of voter turnout may be more problematic • individual voters are NOT more politicized than they have been in the past