Energy Futures

1. Energy Futures Reasons To Be Cheerful? Royston Sellman Thomas Fulljames’ watercolour of his own plans for the Severn Barrage - 1849

2. About Me • Physicist • learnt to program computers (1974) • seemed easier than physics • Programmer • building models of things on computers • sewage plant, epidemics, domestic energy use (1982) • Research at Apple and Hewlett Packard • 2 or 3 years on Sustainability • Now work at Centre for Sustainable Energy in Bristol • modelling government energy policies on computers • currently researching how Smart Meters can help save energy

3. assumptions • Human-made Global Warming is real • Will disrupt many systems (Agriculture, Transport, Health) • Will be cheaper to reduce GHG emissions than to adapt to warming on reasonable timescales • We’ve already done some damage: “Past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium, due to the timescales required for removal of this gas from the atmosphere” IPCC Summary for Policymakers

4. assumptions • Peak Oil is happening • There is lots of Coal and Gas • Goal is to get to zero carbon by 2050 • To run our societies off renewable energy is more elegant than burning fossil fuels or nuclear fission

5. perspectives the problem

6. The problem

7. The problem

8. Can we do it?

9. Can we do it?

10. Can we do it?

11. Can we do it?

12. Can we do it?

13. Can we do it?

14. he who tells you he knows the future is lying, even if he turns out to be right – the koran what will happen?

15. NREAP • National Renewable Energy Action Plan • The Coalition’s Fairly Ambitious Renewables Target • 15% of UK Energy from Renewables by 2020 • 30% Reduction in GHG Emissions • Assumes we electrify our energy mix • Prodigious amounts of Wind • Over a third of the total

16. NREAP • One Fifth is Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation • Not very clear where the fuel will come from • Expecting a lot from Heat Pumps • I believe in the physics but… • Expensive – can they catalyse electrification of energy use? • We need hard data on these in the UK

17. efficiency in housing • New Build • BREEAM • PassivHaus • Old Build • Insulate, Insulate, Insulate • Hard to treat houses (e.g. most of Edale) • Solid wall insulation – internal and external • Draught Proofing • Boilers • Lighting • Incandescent → Compact Flourescent→LED

18. efficiency in industry • The Big Three: • Steel • Cement • Chemicals • SMART 2020 Report • 15% cut across the board by 2020 through improved use of IT • Cradle-to-Cradle Design • Beyond recycling

19. efficiency in industry • Number four emitter: Paper & Pulp Industry Potential GHG Emissions Savings: 120 Million tonnes per year

20. efficiency in Transport, food • Electric Vehicles • Grid Power is more efficient than internal combustion engine • Regenerative Braking • Air Travel • Air Passenger Duty does not incentivise efficiency • Duty on Jet Fuel? • Food • Waste is huge • Beef, Lamb are Energy Intensive • Pork and Cheese lower and about the same • Chicken can be about the same as tomatoes • GM Crops?

21. solar Photovoltaic • Learning Rate = 19% per doubling of production • Production is doubling every 2 years Now probably under $1.50 per Watt

22. wind • NREAP Goal is 117 TWh/year by 2020 ~4kWh per person per day (ppd) • Other studies point a way to 20kWh ppd • Learning Rate also 18% (similar to PV but production only doubles every 2.5 years to 2020)

23. biofuel • Not Ethanol – neither non-cellulosic nor cellulosic • Problematic even from sugar cane • Burning Our Waste • Problems of location • Some Wood • Can be good locally • Pellets from wood waste

24. Microgeneration in your own home • Solar Photovoltaic (PV) • 4kWp (peak) now under £10,000 (~10 kWh per day) • expect further big price falls (I am waiting for £1 per Watt) • in future: integrate with Electric Vehicle e.g. 30 million cars at 50kWh = 1500GWh of electricity storage • Solar Thermal • PVT (Photovoltaic and Thermal) • FIT (Feed In Tariff) • RHI (Renewable Heat Incentive)

25. CHP? • Combined Heat and Power • OK in District Heating Schemes • Not domestic CHP boilers • “Rejected heat from power stations could meet UK heating needs” • Qualified yes from old power stations • Not from new. Better to use it to generate more electricity • Check out the National Heat Map!

26. The national heat map • http://ceo.decc.gov.uk/nationalheatmap/

27. It’s 2020. how are we doing?

28. what could possibly go wrong?

29. the Jevons Paradox • William Stanley Jevons: if the efficiency with which a resource is consumed increases, then consumption of that resource tends to increase • Could be a concern as we electrify our energy mix • Current UK wind energy now essential but has not reduced our FF burn

30. gas glut • Natural Gas price has halved in the US from 2 years ago • Back to dollar price of 2002 • Global effect • Caused by over-production, partly from fracking • Use this to counter fracking here in UK • Affects economics of investment in other energy sources • particularly renewables • Could last to 2030 or beyond (estimates very vague)

31. Coal learning rate ?? Being used to justify investment in CCS – Carbon Capture and Sequestration

32. Fossil fuels are still cheap • Real costs are hidden, you can’t see greenhouse gases • They are subsidised • UK mostly through tax (8% VAT) • But also tax credits for much investment • Airline fuel almost tax-free • Renewables tend to have higher CAPEX but lower OPEX and environmental cost than fossil fuels • Have to overcome the barrier to entry • Offshore wind subsidy is about 7 pence / kWh • We need a carbon price

33. the incumbents are powerful • They have had 150 years of close working with government • entanglement is often complex (GazProm, EDF etc) • Mostly regulated industries • Clumsy • Many barriers to innovation • Skewed market conditions • Obsolete infrastructure • Renewables have a mountain to climb

34. the energy incumbents are powerful talk their language

35. MACC, ERIC and Ref • This is a MACC:

36. MACC, ERIC and Ref • This is an ERIC:

37. I went to prison • This is what an ERIC can do: Santa Rita Jail Alameda County California

38. Ask the Ref 1 • Renewable Energy Finance • Big financial companies are watching • CAPEX & OPEX go topsy-turvy • Justify CAPEX on basis of OPEX • Optimise Production and Investment Tax Credits for renewables • Use Future Savings and Constant OPEX as a principle • Keep bills constant, fund renewables from future savings • Green Deal: Imperfect prototype • Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) flip-flop has been disaster • Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI)

39. Ask the Ref 2 • When politicians go flopsy-wopsy • Demand stability • Parity with fossil fuel burners • Use equivalent financial arguments • For Example • Question CAPEX, OPEX, ITCs and Carbon Credit of CCS where the CO2 is used to recover more oil

40. How to Make it go right • Behaviour • Back to my tank: it made me change • Japan • Post-Fukushima “Setsuden” • Consumption 20% off peak • Wind & PV could replace 60% of turned off nuclear by 2020 • Shaking up their big power companies (even worse than ours) • FIT driving 148GWp of renewables by 2030 (about 15kWh ppd) • Develop Pro-Renewable Arguments • Wading birds or Severn Barrage? • Are Wind Turbines ugly? • Talk their language MACC, ERIC, IRR, PTC, ITC

41. the elephant in the room nuclear?

42. Why I’m Against a Nuclear solution 1 • Government should aim primarily to get us to Consumption/Renewables balance • Economic forces will keep the lights on (primarily using gas) • Nuclear Risk? • Radiation: Fukushima spent fuel nearly caught fire • Cost: How much to make Fukushima reactors safe? • UK would need a new reactor fleet • Need “breeder” reactors, cost unproven • £2 billion per year current fleet decommissioning • Government can fund research (e.g. Thorium reactors)

43. Why I’m Against a Nuclear solution 2 • Nuclear Fusion • ZETA → • ITER - €1.4 billion per year EU project

44. at last the end thank you!