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Historical Origins Part II. Doc Holiday. Let’s Look at Cricket Fighting. In the first half of the second century, AD, bones, dice, and other games of gambling would give way in popularity to a new revolutionary form of gambling . . . Cards
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Historical Origins Part II Doc Holiday
In the first half of the second century, AD, bones, dice, and other games of gambling would give way in popularity to a new revolutionary form of gambling . . . Cards The whereabouts of cards andwho actually invented them remains a subject of debate with varying theories with respect to origination, let’s look at two common held theories. Enter Cards
Korean Hypothesis • The anthropologist Steward Culin, who is devoted to studying Asian and American Indian games, concluded that playing cards (6th century) descended from Korean divinatory arrows. • He hypothesized this because of the similarity of divinatory arrows and due to the their name “htou-tjyen”, meaning “fighting tablets,” • Most Korean packs of cards had eight suits of ten cards each; the suits were man, fish, crow, pheasant, antelope, star, rabbit, and horse.
Korean Playing Cards • The cards were made from oiled silk and were approximately eight inches long and one half inch wide.
Chinese Hypothesis: Card =Shen or Fan • The Chinese have not acknowledged this cultural adaptation and legend holds that dotted cards were played as far back as the 12 century AD in China. • Supposedly cards arose as a game to occupy the emperor’s ladies of the house, all 1500 hundred of them. • Other hypothesis about card creation site India as the birthplace of cards.
Cards A Rampant Explosion • It is likely that idea of gambling with cards filtered westward from China. • Leaving each culture free to develop its own kinds of games.
From Italy to England • One theory holds, that cards spread via Venetian trade routes. • Early Italian decks had 52 cards, but the first, hand painted cards were extremely expensive (hundreds of dollars in today’s terms) • However, as the European Renaissance took hold along with the advent of block printing the price of a deck cards was minimized… • By the late 1400’s card playing was set to became a world wide obsession.
Rise of the Modern Deck • Credited with ushering in the modern playing deck are the French. • French playing card design jelled around 1480. The design here is from the 1500s. • Although there has been some general appearance modifications, French suit signs are immediately recognizable.
Rise of the Modern Deck • Their piques – spades • Their trefles – clubs • Their coeurs – hearts, and; • Their carreaux – are diamonds.
Rise of the Modern Deck • According to legend, Spanish voyagers brought cards to the New world during Columbus’s 1492 transatlantic journey. • But dropped them overboard believing that divine anger would doom their ships. • Spanish playing cards would eventually filter northward during and after colonial possession. • And in years to come, English colonist’s would further add to the spawning of a new gambling nation.
Taming Tyche and Probability theory • Cicero wrote “a man who tossed a Venus throw twice in a row was the beneficiary of luck rather than the personal intervention of the goddess”... • Enter Girolama Cardano The Book on Games of Chance
Girolama Cardano • Physician, Mathematician, Gambler • Stated: “Before agreeing to stakes one must consider the total # of outcomes and compare the number of casts that would produce a favourable outcome to those that are unfavourable” • Computed odds on the cast of one, two, three dice - paving the way toward the adoption of the house advantage.
Toward Mercantile / Professional Gambling • Thus, if a gambling house agrees to pay a customer who bets one dollar at odds of 200 to one if he/she throws three aces... • ...Considering it takes an average of 216 throws to do it the house stands to make a profit of sixteen dollars on each customer • Here then we have the divide between actual probability of various outcomes and payouts offered to customer $ HOUSE EDGE $
Probability (c0nt.) Blaise Pascal • Stimulated by de Méré’s question, Pascal began a now famous chain of correspondence with fellow mathematician Pierre de Fermat. • Together they worked out the problem of odds in various gambling games. • For instance, I know I have a 50% percent chance of flipping a head (on a fair coin). But what is the likelihood of flipping four consecutive heads? Pierre de Fermat
1 out of 16 chances Blaise Pascal • In other words there are 16 total combinations of coin flips • In only one combination are all heads • In four ways there are three heads and one tails • And in six ways heads and tails are dead even • Who wants to bet? Pierre de Fermat
Monte Carlo Fallacy • In the summer of 1913, a roulette ball fell in the black 26 times in a row, an extremely uncommon occurrence (but no more or less common than any of the other 67,108,863 sequences of 26 balls, neglecting the 0 or 00 spots on the wheel), and gamblers lost millions of francs betting against black after the black streak happened. • Gamblers reasoned incorrectly that the streak was causing an "imbalance" in the randomness of the wheel, and that it had to be followed by a long streak of red • Some gamblers believe that previous failures indicate an increased probability of success on subsequent attempts
Probability theory spawned considerable mathematic progress, but it did not have an immediate impact on the society of gamblers • Most gamblers took no notice. While others hoped that mathematicians might cure the reckless of their passion for cards and dice with a strong dose of calculation (Defoe, 1719). • There were a few exceptions, however: • Marquis de Dangeau (1638-1720) took advantage of the new knowledge.
Statistically Guaranteed Profit: Losing My REligion? • Thus, the meaning and implications of probability theory gradually seeped into the collective consciousness of western society over the next 200 years. • Whereby, gambling for the most part, gradually lost its religious connotations and became more of a recreational pursuit or economical pursuit. • Ultimately, probability theory allowed for another path… Using a discrepancy between true odds and actual payouts to carve out a statistically guaranteed profit.
