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Odds and Relative Risk. Note: this PowerPoint presentation is unfinished. Probabilities. Probabilities. Suppose that in 2005-06 a particular 2-year college graduated 300 students from a cohort of 700 students. In this case the probability of graduating is:. Probabilities.

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odds and relative risk

Odds and Relative Risk

Note: this PowerPoint presentation is unfinished.

probabilities1
Probabilities

Suppose that in 2005-06 a particular 2-year college graduated

300 students from a cohort of 700 students. In this case the

probability of graduating is:

probabilities2
Probabilities

Suppose that in 2005-06 a particular 2-year college graduated

300 students from a cohort of 700 students. In this case the

probability of graduating is:

slide6
Odds

Hence the odds of graduating from the cohort are:

slide7
Odds

Hence the odds of graduating from the cohort are:

slide8
Odds

Hence the odds of graduating from the cohort are:

i.e., the odds of graduating are about 3 to 4.

conditional probability
Conditional Probability

The conditional probability of an event is the probability of an event given the occurrence of some other event.

The symbol represents the intersection of G and A).

In Table 1 (on the next slide) the probability of a parent attending college (A) is

325/700 = .464.

The Conditional probability is given by

table 1
Table 1

Numbers of students graduating from college 2005-2006 cross-tabulated with whether or not their parents attended college

conditional odds
Conditional Odds

Conditional odds are ratios of conditional probabilities.

odds ratio or
Odds Ratio (OR)

The OR is the ratio of Odds for one group to the Odds for another group.

odds ratio or1
Odds Ratio (OR)

The OR is the ratio of Odds for one group to the Odds for another group.

The odds of graduating when parents have attended college are nearly 22 times greater than when parents have not attended college.

slide17
Risk

The term risk is just another term for a conditional probability.

For example, in the current example, the risk failing to graduate NG when no parent has attended college (NA) is the conditional probability of not graduating when no parent attended college, or

Risk {NG|NA} = Pr{NG | NA} =.867.

relative risk or risk ratio rr
Relative-risk (or Risk Ratio) (RR)

The RR is the ratio of two conditional probabilities.

The relative risk of failing to graduate given a parent has attended college

Relatively, speaking, risk of not graduating when neither parent has attended college is almost four times greater than when a parent has attended college.