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Challenges and Opportunities in Telecom Research Today

Explore the current state of telecom research, the evolving landscape of the industry, challenges faced, and potential solutions. Delve into factors such as economic shifts, pricing strategies, growth trends, and the role of key players in innovation.

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Challenges and Opportunities in Telecom Research Today

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Bob Lucky Discussing the State of Telecom Research Today

  2. Once Upon a Time …

  3. Role of the Pre-divestiture Bell Labs • Standards (both official and ad hoc) • End-to-end network design • Basic research • Industry and research leadership • Seeding alumni throughout industry and academia

  4. The Economics of Telecom • Bits are becoming a commodity • Overcapacity in the long haul plant • Pricing tends to incremental cost, which is nearly zero • High up front costs • Fast depreciation

  5. Telco Revenue per Minute and per Call1980-2002

  6. $119,925 $102,502 $89,676 Dollars In Millions $67,146 $58,923 $58,186 $53,483 $45,235 $39,488 Year-over-Year Growth Rate 14.6% 28.6% 15.4% 33.6% 33.7% -14.5% -42.5% -9.2% US Telecom Capital Spending Source: Sanford Bernstein

  7. “Telecom is headed the way of DRAMs – pricing is set by the most idiotic competitor. It’s a race to the bottom.” Roxane Googan, Industry analyst

  8. Is There any Bottom to the Price?

  9. Yes, maybe there is a bottom Free?

  10. Free WiFi

  11. Is it Possible?

  12. Telecom’s Paradox • Telecom industry is in crisis in the midst of technological progress and strong user demand • Annual traffic growth: 100% • Annual growth of Internet users: 40% • Strong growth in wireless penetration • Usage of broadband, data, wireless, long distance all rising

  13. Problems in Telecom Research • Reduction in research spending • Change in the nature of research -> short term and applied • Globalization of the industry • Horizontal restructuring of the industry • Shortcomings of university research • Lack of national vision • Lack of end-to-end responsibility

  14. Where is Innovation Coming From Today? • Service providers have abandoned research almost completely • Equipment vendors do the only research in the traditional industry – and they have cut back significantly • New players – Microsoft, Qualcomm, and Cisco – have emerged to do varying amounts of research • The venture market, while still active, is not as robust • The academic community remains strong

  15. Where is Telecom Research Done? – Percent of IEEE Papers Authored by Industry and Academia

  16. Issues • Is Telecom research endangered? • Are there significant economic consequences? • What can be done • By government? • By industry? • By academia?

  17. The Panel • Jeff Jaffe, Lucent • Fred Chang, UT Austin • Niel Ransom, Alcatel

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