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Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Analysis in Distribution Networks. Workshop Thursday, 3 June 2010 Hungarian Energy Office Peter Albertsson, Sweden. Continuity of supply I. 1930s Locally produced Intermittent supply Light Radios No problem with long interruptions.

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risk and vulnerability assessment analysis in distribution networks

Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Analysis in Distribution Networks

Workshop Thursday, 3 June 2010Hungarian Energy Office

Peter Albertsson, Sweden

continuity of supply i
Continuity of supply I


  • Locally produced
  • Intermittent supply
  • Light
  • Radios

No problem with long interruptions

continuity of supply ii
Continuity of supply II


  • National grid
  • Thunderstorm black-outs
  • Light, Radio, TV
  • Pumps, elevators etc.
  • Preserving food

Frequent hour-long interruptions

continuity of supply iii
Continuity of supply III


  • International grid
  • Weather black-outs
  • Information
  • Heat, water, food
  • Machinery
  • Life support

Interruptions unwanted!

hurricane gudrun i
Hurricane Gudrun I

Saturday January 8 2005

> 0 C

> 43 m/s winds hit the coast

> 30 m/s over land

730,000 powerless by midnight

380,000 after one day

230,000 after three days

130,000 after one week

60,000 after three weeks

hurricane gudrun ii
Hurricane Gudrun II

Getting rid of fallen trees

Temporarily repairing the lines

5000 men from Sweden, another 300 electricians from neighboring countries

Military, volunteers

DSOs knew what to do – but had not enough men!

hurricane gudrun iii
Hurricane Gudrun III

60,000 powerless after three weeks

Power back to all except some summer houses after forty days

Restore grids permanently: cables instead of overhead lines (still going on)

gudrun iv after the storm
Gudrun IV: After the storm

Amendments to the Law

  • Reimbursements from 12 h
  • Risk- and vulnerability assessment
  • Action plan
  • Information to customers

And from 1 January 2011:

  • No outage > 24 h
ever increasing need for better continuity of supply
Ever increasing need forbetter continuity of supply

Systematic search for grid


  • Risk and Vulnerability assessment (RVA)
  • Asset management(future possibility)
risk assessment no novelty
Risk assessment: no novelty

Risk analysis of technological


IEC 60300-3-9 (1995)

  • Preliminary Hazard Analysis
  • Fault- / event-trees
  • FMEA
risk assessment the latest
Risk assessment: the latest

A little more general

Of less specific use for us

I would still recommend

IEC 60300-3-9

general risk matrix
General Risk matrix

Risk is

The combination of the

frequency, or probability of

occurrence and the

consequence of a specified

hazardous event

(IEC 60-300-3-9:1995)

swedish specific risk matrix
The most common black-out reasons:

- Weather (wind, snow, thunderstorms)

- Failing equipment (ageing)

- Construction (digging)

Note the difference between risk and

perceived risk in upper right corner!

The owner of the substation is not the

company who is dependent of it and did

this risk assessment.

Swedish specific Risk matrix
technology related view
Technology related view

Different approaches:

  • Lines – the grid itself
  • Stations – components
  • Complexity – grid redundancy
  • Organisation
preliminary hazard analysis
Preliminary Hazard Analysis
  • Systematic brainstorm technique
  • Experience needed
  • Teamwork – the more different competences the better
  • Good overview – no details
  • Initial screening
  • Pitfall: solution orientation
se lessons learnt i legislation
SE Lessons learnt I: Legislation
  • Output regulation(result oriented)
  • Established method(E.g. IEC standard)
  • Documentation
  • Reports to EI(including confidentiality)
regulation ei fs 2010 3
Regulation EI-FS 2010:3


Distribution, Transmission < 220 kV


Introduction and definitions

Analysis: what to do and achieve,

suggested methods from standards,

how to visualize (e.g. risk matrix),

advise on documentation.

regulation ei fs 2010 318
Regulation EI-FS 2010:3

Topics (continued):

Action plans (scheduled)

Vulnerability based criteria:

  • Number of customers
  • Non delivered power (MW)
  • Non delivered energy (kWh)
  • Time to get up and running
  • (Society vulnerability)
se lessons learnt ii implementation
SE Lessons learnt II: Implementation
  • Co-operate
  • Meet
  • Educate
  • Listen
  • Acknowledge
  • Share good practices
  • Share good examples
regulation ei fs 2010 320
Regulation EI-FS 2010:3

DSO’s annual report

Which method for the risk analysis (with source)?

Which way to visualize, assess and rank risks?

How many risks (in four groups) – identified and to action plan?

Circumstances giving problems to “no outages longer than 24 h”?

How many actions shall be taken?

Are the actions on time?

se lessons learnt iii future supervision
SE Lessons learnt III: Future supervision
  • Checking that the RVA is done
  • Monitoring the data of interruptions / continuity of supply
  • Bad performance leads to
    • Contact
    • Visit
    • Checking what was done
    • Demands
asset management pas 55 2008
Asset management: PAS 55:2008

Management system

Managing physical assets to maintain or reinvest right


ISO 14000 for environment

ISO 9000 for quality

Network companies are certified by 3rd party

asset management iso standard
Asset management ISO standard

BSI has invited

40 delegates plan to come

End of April cancelled (ash)

15 – 18 June, London

Beginning of preliminary work

acknowledgements and thanks
Acknowledgements and thanks
  • IEC / BSI / IAM / ISO
  • Lines: Öresund Safety
  • Stations: Fortum
  • Complexity: Grontmij
  • Organisation: SEAB,Staffanstorp, Skåne
  • Preliminary Hazard analysis: Boden Energi Elnät
  • UK: Ofgem
thanks for your attention k sz n m
Thanks for your attention Köszönöm

Tack för uppmärksamheten

Danke schön

Mange takk




Todah Rabah

Hungarian views courtesy Erik Blomqvist