Panel #3: Revolution on transportation and urban-or-not-urban planning Freshman Seminar Nov. 26, 2012
Gen: Need solution that makes us less sensitive to “international events”
CRKMS: • http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch8en/conc8en/energymode.html GLOBAL PICTURE
JMNJA: Predictions by the EIA • By 2030, the US will consume 20% less gasoline, yet have 27 million more cars on the road • The US oil demand will continue a slow decline • By 2022, Biofuels will account for 25% of the gas sold at the pump
CRKMS: Government role in transportation efficiency Past: Eisenhower Interstate System- both for defense and freedom of movement. Expensive, but hugely effective in shaping today’s American economy through accessible routes.
CRKMS: light DUTY VEHICLES • In 2010, light vehicles accounted for 58.8% of the transportation energy consumption in USA which was 16,261.8 Trillion Btu. • In 2009, the numbers were 59.4% and 16,270.7 Trillion Btu respectively.
JMNJA:Changes over the next 5 years • Enforce high mpg in all new cars made, 35 mpg • More heavily subsidize cars that use electricity, like the Chevy Volt and Telsa • Cars need to be made more efficient and the transition from gasoline to electricity in passenger vehicles must be accelerated • Develop lighter cars
GEN: REDUCTION IN OIL CONSUMPTION ALREADY BEGAN… NOT ENOUGH RECALL
How is the usage of Fuel, Hybrid and electric vehicles in changing in the USA? • JMNJA: ISSUES… • Fuel • remain dominant • avg. price is cheaper • Only recently beginning to decrease • has been dominant for years • Increase in efficiency • SUV size is shrinking (http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/05/21/suv-sales-continue-to-soar-despite-high-gas-prices) • New govt. standard sets avg. MPG to 54 by 2025
Hybrid • JMNJA: Market share expected to remain below 10% until 2016 • consumers worry about higher prices • tax credits from Energy Policy Act of 2005 have expired • Increased production, more models available • companies are fighting for small consumer section • Increased interest, improved perception • Sales have been increasing every year • 3% of all cars sold YTD in 2012 • 2.11% in 2011
A case study Price of entry level model Chevy Volt $31,645 38 miles/charge 380 miles/charge+gas Nissan Leaf $27,700 106 MPGe Toyota Prius $24,200 51 MPG Honda Civic Hybrid $24,200 44 MPG Honda Civic $16,755 28 MPG Chevy Cruze $17,130 26 MPG
Electric • JMNJA: US has most in the world (55,000) • That is only .02% of cars in US • Very recent increase led by sales of Chevy Volt (27000 units) • Other top sellers are Nissan Leaf and Prius Plug In • Limited by: • cost and weight of batteries • driving range • Pros: • fuel costs are about $500/year • zero emissions • reduce oil dependency
CRKMS: SMALL SCALE -- Transportation efficiency Carpool lanes ULEV/SULEV/ZEV California- tax credit given to manufacturers of aforementioned vehicles.
CRKMS: Role in public transport • Public transport is in many major cities across the world, including Chicago, New York, and Tokyo. • These transport systems are generally held in high regard for consumers- cheap, efficient, and well-used. • Sustainability depends partially on how many people are riding at once.
CRKMS: Consumer information regarding environmental friendliness • Currently: Energy Star Program • EPA and DOE’s joint program to show consumers that they can simultaneously save on energy bills and contribute to a more sustainable future. • Washing machines, dishwashers, all kinds of electrical appliances. • Encourages consumers and manufacturers alike • Underlying numbers can be a bit intimidating and tough to comprehend, but the government has set out guidelines concerning what devices can be branded with the “Energy Star.”
What information needs to be provided? • JMNJA: CO2 emissions to emphasize environmental effects • energy requirements in kWh • cost per year • highlights consumer savings
Education - how can we effectively raise public awareness of energy issues and change the mindset of the general population to favor acceleration of renewable energy? • JMNJA: Cannot rely on education standards • states control education, very difficult to adapt in 50 states • some states will adopt new standards anyway • Cultural education • Public service announcements • focus on benefits of renewable energy • address myths of renewable energy • for example, the public fear of nuclear power • Movies, media • Eg, "An Inconvenient Truth" • Ultimate Goal: Renewable Energy becoming the norm
JMNJA: BTU per Passenger – Mile Formula: BTU per gallon BTU per vehicle-mile= ------------------------------ vehicle-miles per gallon BTU per vehicle-mile BTU per passenger-mile = ------------------------------ passengersper vehicle The British thermal unit (symbol Btu or sometimes BTU) is a traditional unit of energy equal to about 1.055 kjoules.
JMNJA: BTU per Passenger – Mile http://www.debunkingportland.com/transit/busvscartedb.htm
RTSBR: • Subsidies go towards construction and maintenance, not making public transit cheaper for the consumer
RTSBR: • Following European Union’s proposal: • http://www.gizmag.com/single-european-transport-area/18345/ • Transforming Europe’s transport infrastructure by 2050 • Single European Transport Area “forty initiatives for road, rail and air travel that aim to increase mobility, reduce reliance on oil imports, cut emissions by 60% and combat congestion by halving the use of ‘conventionally fueled’ cars in urban transport by 2030 with a view to phasing them out in cities by 2050.” • Using proposal as guideline, similar strategy can be used in US: • Adopted use of low-carbon fuels in aviation • Movement of road freight traveling to rail or boat • “Public transport quality and connections must be improved if consumer behavior is to change” • A focus specifically on longer-distance travel, and intercontinental freight, air and sea travel • Research into new engines, fuels and traffic management systems increasing efficiency and reducing emissions
CRKMS: Aviation (Airplanes!) • According to previous graph, cargo planes are the fastest but most energy-consuming transportation method • The key with aviation is to advance it as we have been advancing personal cars, by creating hybrids and eventually, possibly fully electric planes, all while experimenting with various kinds of other resources to fuel aircrafts • Another step is, of course, making lighter aircrafts, such as the last picture.
CRKMS: How to Improve Aviation • Developing more aerodynamic aircrafts • Lighter weight materials so as to use less fuel per trip • Could go for “hybrid” planes • NASA and Boeing working on a hydrogen-cell hybrid airplane, Boeing 777, timeline set to be in 2015. http://www.hybrid-vehicles.net/images/airplanes/hybrid-airplane.jpg
Hybrid Aircraft http://www.aeroscraft.com/#/products/4565657678
SO… MODERN Highways • Highways in the sky… • Flying cars! DUH! (Inspiration: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, Futurama, Back to the Future 2, every other show/movie with flying cars…) • Good news: They exist! http://news.wyotech.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/pal-v.jpg http://news.wyotech.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/terrafugiatransition.jpg The only problem is that they are a bit costly to say the very least… The Terrafugia Transition is an airplane-like style of flying car with collapsable wings, however it does require a runway for takeoff and landing. The PAL-V is totally street-legal with blades that fold back into the back hatch while on the road, can reach up to 100mph on the road, developed by Dutch in 2008 and made its first flight in early 2012.
Highways The SkyCar can reach 13,200 ft in the air and cruise at 375 mph and the current asking price is $1 million, but it is possible that it could go down as low as $60,000 if/when it is mass-produced • Flying cars (continued) http://www.instablogsimages.com/1/2012/03/06/image_title_bzqmg_230x160.jpg The Moller M200X Flying Car was invented by a man who spent his life building flying car prototypes. This car has been flown over 200 times and has gone as high as 50 ft in the air. http://www.instablogsimages.com/1/2012/03/06/image_title_je3mt_230x160.jpg
JMNJA: Carbon Footprints • Plane : 69 kg/CO2 per mph • Train: 8 kg/CO2 per mph • Car: .130kg/CO2 per mpH WHAT ABOUT BOATS/SHIP???????
CRKMS: Marine • In one hour, a single cargo ship can emit as much as 350,000 cars • CO2 emissions from shipping make up between 4 and 5% of the world’s emissions • Ballast water and bilge water can harm marine life • Larger marine animals may be hit by oncoming ships • The diesel exhaust emitted by cargo ships is a likely human carcinogen, as declared by the EPA • Oil spills are always a risk • Tankers and container ships are some of the slowest methods of transportation
CRKMS: Improving Marine Transportation • Already ships are required to use Ultra-low sulfur diesel to reduce sulfur emissions • “Prius of the Sea”, the Viking Lady is a hybrid ship reducing CO2 emissions by 20-30% and the fuel savings will pay for the ship in two years
CRKMS: Marine • MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMICS • (Magneto-Hydro-Dynamics) • It means the water is electrified and then propelled by a magnetic field through small areas to force the vessel in the opposite direction • Very few prototypes exist and this is still a largely unused idea, but worth investigating The Yamato 1 was built with two MHD drives, but was only able to reach speeds of 8 knots, thus considered useless. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0d/Yamato_1_from_the_front.JPG/800px-Yamato_1_from_the_front.JPG