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Progress in Data Assimilation Techniques in Slovenia: Enhancements and Innovations

This report outlines the current progress in data assimilation for meteorological forecasting in Slovenia, operational since March 30, 2011. With two daily production runs, improvements in surface and upper-air scores have been achieved, enhancing precipitation forecasting. Key adjustments include revising satellite data usage, removing biases, and implementing advanced diagnostics. Successful case studies demonstrate better prediction of convective events and improved analyses through strategic modifications, aiming for continued optimization in upcoming phases.

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Progress in Data Assimilation Techniques in Slovenia: Enhancements and Innovations

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  1. DATA ASSIMILATION PROGRESS IN SLOVENIA Benedikt Strajnar

  2. DATA assimilation status at SEA Operational since March 30th 2011 Two 54 h production runs per day (00, 12 UTC), sms Clear surface improvement, neutral upper-air scores Improved precipitation cases (convective and stratiform)

  3. Operational suite - sms

  4. 2m T and RH scores for May 2011 Improved surface temperature Dry humidity bias (opposite sign)

  5. Upper-air scores 500 hPa 925 hPa

  6. Revised use of satellite data channel selection based on obs-guess (~0.5 K) and analysis-guess (~0.1 K) Tb bias removal of ch. 13 AMSU-A because of a low model top (5 hPa) temporal blacklisting via run-dependent LISTE_LOC added MSG SEVIRI ch. 7 on top of 2,3

  7. Revised usage of satellite data - scores Temperature Geopotentiel Scores mixed for all variables, degradation for RH Relative humidity Wind speed Wind direction

  8. SEVIRI channel 7 guilty? Channel 3 Channel 7

  9. DFI tuning Modifications of DFI cut-off period (TAUS) Tests of incremental vs. non-incremental filter Tests also with no initialization 6-minute rainfall accumulation

  10. DFI diagnostics

  11. DFI tunning - scores

  12. VARBC impact Varbc tested for a period of 1 month (24h cycling), 1 – 10 hPa predictor switched off Warming-up period was 14 days

  13. Order of surface and upper-air analysis Scores for near-surface T and RH clearly improved if surface is analysed before the atmosphere

  14. Impact of 2 m RH and T assimilation

  15. LANDSAF Albedo assimilation impact Proof of concept at 4.4 km Cold model bias (February 2011, around 5°C) decreased up to 1 K (average ~ 0.2 K) due to LANDSAF albedo estimates

  16. Plans Migrate to cy36 Test and use METOP Test and use IASI Test and use S-Mode high-resolution aircraft data Test surfex Explore possibilities to use Slovenian GPS data Improve vertical resolution Recompute B, choose better periods (summer B matrix at the moment)

  17. Case I: Improved location of afternoon convection in assimilation run

  18. Case II: weak front - precipitation DYN. ADA. ASSIM INCA

  19. Case II: weak front – improved timing DYN. ADA. ASSIM INCA

  20. Case III: Improved location and time of the first thunderstorm Radar accumulation

  21. Case III: Next day (+33 h) ASSIM DYN.ADA.

  22. Case IV: Location of convection S Sloveniainsteadof NE N Adriatic not dry

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