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Strategic Plan for HEPEX. John Schaake, Eric Wood and Roberto Buizza AMS Annual Meeting Atlanta February 2, 2006. Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX).

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strategic plan for hepex

Strategic Plan for HEPEX

John Schaake, Eric Wood and Roberto Buizza

AMS Annual Meeting

Atlanta

February 2, 2006

hydrological ensemble prediction experiment hepex

Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)

HEPEX aims todemonstrate how to produce reliable hydrological ensemble forecasts that can be used with confidence to make decisionsfor emergency management, water resources management and the environment

hepex basic building blocks
HEPEX Basic Building Blocks

All 3 blocks are emerging

Major work needed

Must be done in an integrated way

Weather/Climate Ensemble

Prediction System

Hydrologic Ensemble

Prediction System

User

Applications

slide4

Weather and Climate Forecasts

Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction

Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System

Observations

Products, Services,

Applications

elements of a hydrologic ensemble prediction system
Elements of a Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System

Weather and Climate Forecasts

Single-value and ensemble forecasts

Atmospheric Ensemble

Pre-Processor

Reliable hydrologic inputs

Land Data

Assimilator

Hydrologic Ensemble

Processor

Hydrologic

Models

Obs

Ensemble forecasts

Ensemble initial conditions

Product

Generator

Reliable hydrologic products

Products and Services

initial workshop
Initial Workshop
  • ECMWF - March 8-10, 2004
  • 80 Participants
  • 16 Countries
  • Users [NY Power, BC Hydro, Quebec Hydro, EDF (France), Mekorot (Israel), WMIG (Canada), CddHoward (Canada), SMHI (Sweden), BGF (Germany), …]
  • Meteorologists
  • Hydrologists
three basic elements of hepex
Three Basic Elements of HEPEX
  • Testbed Projects
  • Supporting Data Sets
  • Components of the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)
future activities
Future Activities
  • HESS: HEPEX Special Issue
  • HEPEX Strategic Implementation Plan (Eric Wood)
  • BAMS Article (Tom Hammil)
  • Testbed Workshops / Deliverables
  • Data Set Access / Management (JCS)
  • Hydrovision “track” (Chuck Howard)
  • Workshop #3 – Ispra, Italy – Summer 2007
thank you
Thank You

HEPEX WorkshopBoulder – July 19-22, 2005

hepex testbed projects
HEPEX Testbed Projects
  • Canada – Great Lakes
  • Europe
    • EU-JRC Ispra, Pan-European Flood, Po River
  • Brazil
  • U.S.
    • SE U.S.
    • Western U.S.
  • Bangladesh
  • PreProcessing / Statistical Downscaling
  • Hydrologic Uncertainty / Data Assimilation

Return

supporting data sets under construction
Supporting Data Sets(Under Construction)
  • GFS Fixed Ensemble (1979 – present)
    • Temperature and Precipitation
    • Selected Regions
  • Precipitation and Temperature Analyses
    • Selected Regions
    • Multi-scale
  • Hydrological Basins
    • Forcing
    • Basin characteristics
    • Streamflow
    • Snow, soil moisture, satellite, etc
  • TIGGE Ensembles
  • CPC Products (for US)
  • Other? (e.g. ECMWF, CMS, etc.)

Return

slide14

Algorithm

Services

Control

Services

Data

Services

Security

Services

Display

Services

Community Hydrologic Prediction

System (CHPS)

Point Information (Stations, Grid Cells)

Federal agencies

State, regional, and local cooperators

Universities

Private sector

International organizations

Near-Surface

Deep

Soil Moisture

Runoff

Snow Water Equivalent

Precipitation

Evapotranspiration

Vector Information (River Segments)

River Stage & Flow

Surface Water Storage

Water Supply Availability

Flood Potential

Water Quality

Return

rio grande brazil
Rio Grande - Brazil
  • Apply
    • CPTEC climate ensemble forecasts
    • RAMS regional climate model
  • Users
    • ANEEL
    • ONS
  • Milestone – March 2006
  • AGU Chapman Conference @ Porto Alegre, 2006?

Return

southeast us
Southeast US
  • Application of meteorological forcing
  • Include hydrologic uncertainties in hydrologic ensembles
  • Application of climate information as input to predict extreme events
  • Validation for extreme hydrological events

Return

western us and british columbia
Western US and British Columbia
  • Prediction for 2wks to 1 year
  • Importance of Hydrological Model Calibration
  • Data assimilation of snow
  • Climate forecast application strategy
  • Strategies for unbiasing hydrologic ensemble forecasts

Return

statistical downscaling
Statistical Downscaling
  • Initial focus on application of fixed version GFS Ensemble forecasts
  • Links to other testbeds
  • Strategies to produce ensemble forcing for ESP?
  • Verification?

Return