Presentation Transcript

1. Real Estate VoicesCalifornia Association of Realtors, Nov. 13, 2013

   Demographic Waves of Housing Demand: Aging and Immigration Dowell Myers
2. Overview of Topics 1The Overlooked Equation: Housing = Demography, modified by financial factors 2Population Age Waves -- Multifamily Trend and Outlook -- Baby Boomer Sell-Off & Replacement Buyers? 3Immigration Waves and Settlement -- Extreme Upward Mobility into Homeownership 4What is the New Normal? Dowell Myers, USCPrice
3. The Overlooked Equationof Housing & Demography
4. People live in housing; demand = occupied units Age regularities of demand, modified by economic conditions; demography is not a dummy variable Long lag effects: 1. Arrive in market 25 years after birth 2. Live in houses 25 years after purchase 3. Generational bubble of Baby Boomers Growth in new households is crucial, also their exits 1. Native-born come of age 2. Immigrant arrivals 3. Soaring numbers of seniors are a challenge Dowell Myers, USC Price
5. Major demographic dimensions: 1. Age and generation 2. Immigrants and native-born 3. Race and ethnicity These dimensions intersectin a new generational partnership 1. Aging Baby Boomers require younger replacements in the workforce and in housing 2. Soaring numbers of seniors will depend on a much more diverse younger population
6. Impact of Population Age Waves
7. Total Population of the United Statesin millions
8. U.S. Population by Age Each Decadein millions Source: Dowell Myers, USC; Data from Census Bureau
9. U.S. Population Growth Each Decadein millions Dowell Myers, USCPrice Source: Dowell Myers; Data from Census Bureau
10. Only1% of households (growing segments) dictate type of new construction Everyone else livesin existing housing Minority Dictatorship of New Construction Dowell Myers, USC Price
11. Myers and Pitkin ‘09 Native-Born Turning Age 25, Plus Immigrant Arrivals Total Demographic Growth 4 3 2 1 Myers and Pitkin, “Demographic Forces and Turning Points” Dowell Myers, USCPrice
12. 3.MultifamilyDownturn and Revival
13. Age Profile of Tenants in Recently Built Apartments Dowell Myers, USCPrice Source: Dowell Myers, USC; Data from Census Bureau
14. 4.The Baby BoomerSell-Off
15. Number of U.S. Homeowners by Age Cohort2000 and 2010 Dowell Myers, USCPrice
16. Population Growth by Age Group Last 20 Years and Next 20 Years Dowell Myers, USCPrice Source: Decennial Census and 2012 Census Bureau projections

17. Soaring Ratio of Seniors to Working Age

    Dowell Myers, USCPrice
18. Immigrant Contributions
19. Cumulative Foreign-Born Share of U.S. Source: Census Bureau 1850 to 2010, Pitkin-Myers 2011 U.S. Generational Projections Dowell Myers, USCPrice
20. Changing Outlook on Immigration Alternative Projections of Net Immigration to the U.S. (1000s) Dowell Myers, USCPrice
21. Growth of Immigrant Renters and Owners (Millions) Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, “Immigrant Contributions to the Housing Market…” RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association, 2013 Dowell Myers, USCPrice
22. Immigrant Trajectory From Renting to Owning Percent Homeowners of Cohort that Arrived in the 1980s Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, “Immigrant Contributions to the Housing Market…” RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association, 2013 Dowell Myers, USCPrice
23. Transition into Homeownership For Successive Waves of Immigrants in the U.S. Arriving Before 1970, 80, 90, 2000, or 2010 Data Source: Dowell Myers & Cathy Liu, Urban Policy and Research, September 2005; updated Hyojung Lee 2013 Dowell Myers, USCPrice
24. Transition into Homeownership For Successive Waves of Immigrants in Major States Arriving Before 1970, 80, 90, 2000, or 2010 Data Source: Dowell Myers & Cathy Liu, Urban Policy and Research, September 2005; updated Hyojung Lee 2013 Dowell Myers, USCPrice
25. Growth in Number of Renters Who are Immigrant or Native-Born (Millions) Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, “Immigrant Contributions to the Housing Market…” RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association, 2013 Dowell Myers, USCPrice
26. Growth in Number of Owners Who are Immigrant or Native-Born (Millions) Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, “Immigrant Contributions to the Housing Market…” RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association, 2013 Dowell Myers, USCPrice
27. Immigrant Share of Growth Renters and Owners Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, “Immigrant Contributions to the Housing Market…” RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association, 2013 Dowell Myers, USCPrice

28. All Across America

29. Immigrant Share of Growth in Renters 2010-2020 Dowell Myers, USCPrice
30. Immigrant Share of Growth in Owners 2010-2020 Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, “Immigrant Contributions to the Housing Market…” RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association, 2013 Dowell Myers, USCPrice
31. What is the New Normal?
32. Population Growth by Age Group Last 20 Years and Next 20 Years Dowell Myers, USCPrice Source: Decennial Census and 2012 Census Bureau projections
33. Outlook for Household Formations Recent History and Remainder of Decade Dowell Myers, USCPrice Source: Census Bureau Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey
34. Trend in Homeownership?No Clue from This Short Span: 1995 to 2013 Dowell Myers, USCPrice
35. A Century of U.S. Homeownership Rates Dowell Myers, USCPrice
36. 5-Year Cohort Progress Into HomeownershipPercent Homeowners, by Age at Beginning of Period Before the Crash AFTER the Crash Dowell Myers, USCPrice Source: Dowell Myers analysis of Housing Vacancy Survey data
37. Comparison of Progress into Homeownershipby Four Cohorts Observed in Same Age Intervals Source: Dowell Myers analysis of Housing Vacancy Survey data Dowell Myers, USCPrice
38. What are the Takeaways? • Watch the ups and downs of demographic age waves • The same for ups and downs of new immigrant arrivals • Immigration + revived native demand = stronger outlook • Beware the flood of aging sellers – we can plan solutions • We must strengthen the younger generation, increasing their capacities, and removing barriers to their success • Demographics help us to think ahead so that we can plan a better future for America Dowell Myers, USCPrice
39. Thank you For More Information on Housing & Demographics Visit USC PopDynamics Dowell Myers dowell@usc.edu
40. Publications Referenced in this Presentation Myers, Dowell and John Pitkin, “Immigrant Contributions to Housing Demand in the United States: A Comparison of Recent Decades and Projections to 2020 for the States and Nation,” Special Report, Research Institute for Housing America, Mortgage Bankers Association, April 2013. Pendall, Rolf, Lesley Freiman, Dowell Myers, and Selma Hepp, “Demographic Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Housing Markets,” Bipartisan Policy Center, Washington, D.C., March 2012. Pitkin, John and Dowell Myers, “Projections of the U.S. Population, 2010-2040, by Immigrant Generation and Foreign-Born Duration in the U.S.,” Special Report, Population Dynamics Research Group, October 2011. Myers, Dowell and John Pitkin, “Demographic Forces and Turning Points in the American City, 1950 to 2040,” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences 626 (November 2009): 91-111. Myers, Dowell and SungHoRyu, “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition,” Journal of the American Planning Association 74, 1 (Winter 2008): 17-33. (Winner of 2008 Award for Best Article in the Journal.) Myers, Dowell, Immigrants and Boomers: Forging a New Social Contract for the Future of America. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2007. NOTE: most publications are available at http://www.usc.edu/schools/price/research/popdynamics/