EE535: Renewable Energy: Systems, Technology & Economics

1. EE535: Renewable Energy: Systems, Technology & Economics Session 1: Introduction Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

2. Renewble Energy Focus Handbook, Elsevier 2009, ISBN: 978-0-12-374705-1 Hughes Electrical and Electronic Technology, Pearson Education 2008, ISBN: 978-0-13-206011-0 Energy Switch, Craig Morris, New Society Publishers, 2006, ISBN: 978-0-86571-559-2 Sustainable Energy – without the hot air, David JC MacKay, UIT Cambridge Ltd 2009, ISBN: 978-0-9544529-3-3 Mayo Energy Audit 2009-2020, Wilson & Lynch, Sustainability Institute 2008 www.renewableenergyfocus.com www.withouthotair.com http://www.iwea.com www.sustainability.ie www.wikipedia.org http://www.undp.org/energy/activities/wea/drafts-frame.html http://www.ren21.net/pdf/RE2007_Global_Status_Report.pdf Reading/Reference List Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

3. Wind Energy Handbook, Burton, Sharpe, Jenkins, Bossanyi, Wiley 2001, ISBN: 13:978-0-471-48997-0 Energy Systems and Sustainability, Boyle, Everett, Ramage, Oxford University Press 2003, ISBN 0-19-926179-2 Renewable Energy, Boyle, Oxford University Press 2004, ISBN 0-19-926178-4 Renewable Energy, Sorensen, Academic Press 2000, ISBN:0-12-656152-4 Introduction to Energy, Cassedy, Grossman, Cambridge Uni Press1998, ISBN 0 1521 63106 8 Energy Economics, Quantitative Methods for Energy and Environmental Decisions, Kaplan, McGraw-Hill 1983, ISBN 0-07-033286-X Reading/Reference List Research Papers Referenced on Slides and Assigned Reading as Course Progresses Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

4. Course Objectives • Key concepts in renewable energy technologies • Ability to model and cost renewable energy projects. • Awareness of political and business issues relating to renewable energy Assessment: 50% Examination, 50% Assignment Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

5. Course Outline • Motivations and Fundamentals • Energy Conversion Processes • Energy Usage • Generation Technologies • Wind Power • Photovoltaics • Solar Thermal • Bioenergy • Ocean Energy • Hydro • Storage and Transmission • Planning, Costs and Economics • Future Trends and Investment Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

6. The Big Picture • This generation is using the earth’s finite resources much faster than they can be regenerated • It’s estimated that we burn in 1 year what it took nature 15,000 years to make • We are endangering the standard of living of future generations • Energy / Resources Poor • Pollution (incl. climate change) • Biodiversity (largest mass extinction of species in the past 65 million years) Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

7. Motivations that drive today’s energy discussions • Fossil fuels are a finite resource • Cheap oil and gas will probably run out in our lifetime • Needed for plastics and other essential materials • We’re interested in security of energy supply • Each nation / economic block needs security to protect industry and essential services • Have our fossil fuels peaked? • It’s very likely that fossil fuels change the climate Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

8. Peak Oil • Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. • Hubbert proposed that fossil fuel production in a given region over time would follow a roughly bell-shaped curve • "Hubbert's peak" can refer to the peaking of production of a particular area, which has now been observed for many fields and regions. • Hubbert's Peak was achieved in the continental US in the early 1970s. Oil production peaked at 10.2 million barrels a day. Since then, it has been in a gradual decline. • Hubbert assumed that after fossil fuel reserves (oil reserves, coal reserves, and natural gas reserves) are discovered, production at first increases approximately exponentially, as more extraction commences and more efficient facilities are installed. At some point, a peak output is reached, and production begins declining until it approximates an exponential decline. Production Lags Discovery Please Read: Hubbert’s Petroleum Production Model: An Evaluation and Implications for World Oil Production Forecasts, Alfred J. Cavallo, Natural Resources Research,Vol. 13,No. 4, December 2004 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory#cite_note-cavallo-4 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

9. Who uses the world’s oil? Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Source: sustainability institute

10. Projected Price of Oil Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Source: sustainability institute

11. Conclusions of the Hirsch Report • World oil peaking is going to happen - some forecasters predict within a decade, others later. • Oil peaking could cost economies dearly - particularly that of the U.S. • Oil peaking presents a unique challenge - previous transitions were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary. • The real problem is liquid fuels for transportation - motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships have no ready alternative. • Mitigation efforts will require substantial time - an intense effort over decades. • Both supply and demand will require attention - higher efficiency can reduce demand, but large amounts of substitute fuels must be produced. • It is a matter of risk management - early mitigation will be less damaging than delayed mitigation. • Government intervention will be required - otherwise the economic and social implications would be chaotic. • Economic upheaval is not inevitable - without mitigation, peaking will cause major upheaval, but given enough lead-time, the problems are soluble. • More information is needed - effective action requires better understanding of a number of issues. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#cite_note-127 http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

12. Security of Supply • Over 90% of Ireland’s total primary energy requirements are met by imported oil, coal, and gas. • Slow rate of development of indigenous renewable energy sources • Does the ‘Balance Sheet’ add up? • What is Ireland’s energy gap • Are there enough renewables to cover our requirements • What are the social and economic consequences of • Substantially increased energy costs? • Intermittent and Uncertain Supply? http://www.energybulletin.net/node/13646 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 http://www.ucc.ie/serg/pub/SOS-R2.pdf

13. How Much Electricity is Generated in Ireland? • Installed Capacity is about 4,700 MW • Peak Demand over 4,000 MW • Instantaneous Power varies between 1,200 MW and 4,000 MW • Electricity Generated per annum c. 22 TWh (22,000 GWh) Source: SEI 2003 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

14. Ireland Electricity Generation Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Renewables – primarilty wind and hydro

15. Ireland’s Electricity Generation Infrastructure ESB Power Stations - Thermal ESB Power Stations - Hydro Independent Power Producers • Edenderry Power 120 MW Peat • Synergen 400 MW Gas • Huntstown 343 MW Gas Source SEI 2003 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

16. Renewable • Renewable energy is energy generated from natural resources such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat—which are renewable (naturally replenished). • Although by definition non-finite, renewables are constrained by technology and infrastructure capable of harvest • While most renewable energy projects and production is large-scale, renewable technologies are also suited to small off-grid applications in rural and remote areas, where energy is often crucial in human development Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

17. Renewable Energy Sources • Direct Solar • Solar Thermal • Photovoltaics • Indirect Solar • Hydro Power • Wind Power • Wave Power • Bioenergy • Non-Solar Renewables • Tidal Energy • Geothermal Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

18. Economically Attractive • Finding new energy sources is not difficult – What is difficult is finding new sources of economically attractive energy • It is essential to be able to estimate the cost of energy produced by different methods Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

19. Intermittency / Fluctuations (the wind doesn't always blow nor the sun always shine) and that this has not been adequately factored into discussions of their potential Requirement for significant storage Social and Environmental Impact Food Capacity Land Usage Aesthetic Accessibility Technology Maturity Cost Availability of transmission net Greater use of renewable energy is seen as a key component of any move to combat climate change, and is being aggressively promoted as such by the new U.S. administration and by other Without new storage technologies that can overcome intermittency, much of the decarbonization of the economy will have to come from nuclear, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and energy efficiency New energy storage technologies could greatly increase the role of renewables, but none are currently in sight Little rigorous economic analysis of renewable technologies Problems with Renewables Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

20. Electricity Demand Profile Peaking Generation System demand Mid-merit generation Baseload Generation 6am midday 6pm midnight Time of Day season Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

21. Renewables Capacity in Ireland Installed Capacity is about 4700 MW; Peak Demand over 4000 MW; Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

22. Carbon & Climate Change • Human fossil- fuel burning causes carbon dioxide concentrations to rise • Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas; • Increasing the greenhouse effect in-creases average global temperatures (and has many other effects). Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

23. Carbon & Climate Change Source: http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/withouthotair/c1/page_6.shtml Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

24. Carbon & Climate Change • The burning of fossil fuels sends about 7 gigatons of CO2 per year into the atmosphere • The biosphere and the oceans send about 440 gigatons and 330 gigatons of CO2 per year into the atmosphere Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

25. Consumption Transport Heating and Cooling Lighting Information Systems and Gadgets Food Manufacturing Renewables Production Capability Wind Solar Hydroelectric Wave Geothermal Nuclear?? The Balance Sheet Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Without hot air pg 22

26. The Energy Gap • What is Irelands energy gap • Can we live on renewables? • Options for reducing consumption? Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

27. Assignment • As a class we are going to produce a comprehensive study of renewable energy in Ireland and attempt to put a roadmap to sustainability in place • Working individually or in teams, you will produce a comprehensive report on an agreed topic relating to power generation, storage, management, utilization, distribution, financing • Your report will be in the format of a book chapter. • You will be expected to pitch-out to the class on your study later in the term Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009

28. Ideas? • Solar Power Satellites • utility-scale solar thermal power utility-scale solar thermal power • Hydro Storage facilities • Spirit of Ireland • Cold Fusion Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009