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ESDS International Annual Conference Understanding the world: evidence and impact London, 28 November 2011. 2009 A year of major changes on the energy scene. Jean-Yves Garnier Sharon Burghraeve Energy Statistics Division.

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ESDS International Annual ConferenceUnderstanding the world: evidence and impactLondon, 28 November 2011

2009

A year of major changes on the energy scene

Jean-Yves Garnier

Sharon Burghraeve

Energy Statistics Division


Understanding the world evidence and impact the need for timely and detailed data
Understanding the world: evidence and impactThe need for timely and detailed data

Delay: 18 months for detailed data on transformation and consumption

Delay: 6 months for data on energy supply


Why such a long delay in getting proper data
Why such a long delay in getting proper data

Fast turnover in staff

  • Liberalisation of the market: From one company to hundreds

  • Confidentiality (linked to liberalisation)

  • More work passed to statistics offices:

    • More companies to survey (liberalisation)

    • Renewables (remote information)

    • Energy efficiency indicators (including socio-economic data)

    • Environment (estimation of GHG emissions, ….)

    • Etc.

  • Resources do not follow work load:Statistics still have a low profile, budget cuts

  • Fast turnover in staff: lack of experience, continuity


The past situation in energy statistics offices
The past situation in energy statistics offices

Retirement age

50s

40s

30s

20s

passing experience

gaining experience


The current situation
The current situation

environment

modelling

private sector

Retirement age

50s

40s

policy

30s

20s

efficiency

  • Temptation to move away from statistics is high

  • Young statisticians only stay a few years

  • Not enough time to have a full grasp of energy statistics

  • No time to transmit their expertise


A few words on the impact of the economic crisis
A few words on the impact of the economic crisis

- 2%

Variation in GDP growth between 2008 and 2009 for selected regions


Evolution of gdp using purchasing power parity

A few words on the impact of the economic crisis

Evolution of GDP using purchasing power parity

In 2009, for the first time, GDP PPP of non-OECD countries overtook the one of OECD countries

However, there is still a major gap in terms of GDP on Market Exchange Rate


Impact of gdp on the world energy consumption
Impact of GDP on the world energy consumption

2009 marks the first decrease in global energy consumption since the first oil crisis

50%

50%

Total Primary Energy Supply


2009 a change in the largest energy consumer
2009: A change in the largest energy consumer

Due to the more severe impact of the crisis on the US economy, China became the largest energy consumer in 2009 instead of 2011 or 2012.

Mtoe

2012


Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand
Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand

Growth in primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario

Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth

4 500

China

Mtoe

4 000

India

3 500

Other developing Asia

3 000

Russia

Middle East

2 500

Rest of world

2 000

OECD

1 500

1 000

500

0

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035


45

Current Policies Scenario

Share of cumulative abatement between 2010-2035

Gt

42.6 Gt

40

Efficiency

53%

Renewables

21%

35

20.9 Gt

Biofuels

3%

Nuclear

9%

30

CCS

15%

450 Scenario

25

21.7 Gt

20

2008

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035


A few q a on evidence and impacts to conclude
A few Q/A on evidence and impacts to conclude

Has the decrease in energy consumption continued in 2010?

No. Preliminary data show a 4.5% rebound, with coal consumption increasing by almost 7% and oil by 2%.

What is the consequence of the ever growing demand for energy?

45

Current Policies Scenario

Share of cumulative abatement between 2010-2035

Gt

42.6 Gt

Dramatic! If nothing is done in terms of energy policy, the world will never meet the 450 ppm target, but is more on track to a 650 ppm scenario.

40

Efficiency

53%

Renewables

21%

This means that instead of an average + 2 Celsius on Earth by the end of the century (450 ppm), we might very well have to face a + 6 Celsius (650 ppm) with all the dramatic climate changes associated with.

35

20.9 Gt

Biofuels

3%

Nuclear

9%

30

CCS

15%

450 Scenario

Can we do something about it?

25

21.7 Gt

YES! Increase energy efficiency. Change our energy mix: more renewables (more nuclear?). Be cleaner: develop CCS solutions as often as possible.

20

2008

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

The world is not lacking of energy. But the world is lacking of time…

Thank you


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