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Catastrophe Readiness and Response: A New Course Almost Ready for Final Release. Rick Bissell, PhD. Catastrophes. CNN Report: Climate Change “Catastrophic” 1 300,000 excess deaths/year now due to climate change

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Catastrophe readiness and response a new course almost ready for final release

Catastrophe Readiness and Response: A New Course Almost Ready for Final Release

Rick Bissell, PhD


Catastrophes
Catastrophes Ready for Final Release

CNN Report: Climate Change “Catastrophic”1

300,000 excess deaths/year now due to climate change

300 million vulnerable to climate change in 2009. This number is set to double by 2030.2

1.http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/05/29/annan.climate.change.human/index.html

2. Global Humanitarian Forum: Human Impact Report: Climate Change -- The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis


Assumptions
Assumptions Ready for Final Release

  • Catastrophes are fundamentally different from run of the mill disasters

    • Lack of immediate mutual aid

    • Affect interlocked systems of communications, power, transport, food delivery, health care, national commerce

    • Span multiple jurisdictions and levels of government; overwhelming complexity

    • Response is not just more of the same


Assumptions 2
Assumptions - 2 Ready for Final Release

  • Future EMs will face more catastrophes and more severe ones

  • Political authorities will depend on EMs for guidance

  • International assistance (US receiving as well as US providing) will become more common among North Atlantic countries


Assumptions 3
Assumptions - 3 Ready for Final Release

  • All-hazards planning is not up to the task; scenario-specific planning is required to deal with hypercomplex events

  • Flexibility and unconventional responses will be even more important, and they can be learned and planned


Fema s three approaches to preparedness for catastrophes
FEMA’s Three Approaches to Preparedness for Catastrophes Ready for Final Release

Scenario-based intensive planning for geographic regions, with traditional “top-down” plans and exercises.

Scenario-based intensive planning for geographic regions with “bottom-up” plans and exercises.

EMI course on catastrophe readiness and response.


Charge
Charge Ready for Final Release

  • Develop a new course for upper division undergraduates and graduate students on the tasks necessary for planning, preparedness for and response to catastrophes.


Status report
Status Report Ready for Final Release

  • All course sessions have now been reviewed by way of public comment and select outside reviewers.

  • Reviewers’ comments to be compiled for review meeting.

  • Revisions to be submitted by end of July.


New enhance secondary catastrophes
New/Enhance Secondary Catastrophes Ready for Final Release

Mass migration from newly uninhabitable lands becomes a catastrophe in itself.

So. Pacific island countries, heavily populated lowland countries (Bangladesh, Netherlands, etc) and cities (NYC?, NOLA? Miami?)

Desertification in Asia, Africa, Latin America and North America


Oldies but goodies now more frequent and powerful
Oldies but Goodies, Now More Frequent and Powerful Ready for Final Release

Hurricanes

Flooding

Drought

Heat waves

Epidemics/pandemics


Oldies but goodies now more complex
Oldies but Goodies, Now More Complex Ready for Final Release

Networked and articulated electrical power systems

Networked and vulnerable information systems

Networked and articulated supplies delivery and management systems

See work of Lagadec, et al


Expiration of resources
Expiration of Resources Ready for Final Release

Petroleum

Natural gas

Potable and irrigation water

Food


Violent conflicts
Violent Conflicts Ready for Final Release

Competition for scarce resources

Changing world order

Increasingly lethal weapons, with wider distribution

Rise of terrorism

“Rogue” states


Cumulative effects more catastrophes
Cumulative Effects-> More Catastrophes Ready for Final Release

Loss of arable land and useable water leads to increased food shortage

Increased desperation leads to mass migration, violence, or both

Increased intensity of storms presents many direct dangers, but also can contribute to loss of arable land, useable water and food.


What to do
What to Do? Ready for Final Release

Mitigation: many worldwide attempts to mitigate climate change and its effects

Preparedness:

Many European and Asian countries preparing for direct effects.

Some intercontinental preparedness activities (Lagadec, et al)

FEMA, three approaches


Expectations
Expectations Ready for Final Release

  • Courseinstructors may not have deep background in this field; instructor guidance needs to be comprehensive.

  • FEMA catastrophe planning provides good examples, but it is rapidly changing.

  • Students will need to do much background reading (10-15 hrs/wk).


Course structure
Course Structure Ready for Final Release

  • 15-week semester 3 credit hours

  • 11 core sessions, 2 case studies, 1 tabletop exercise, 1 summary and final exam, and at least 3 add-on sessions

  • Each session has some kind of class exercise.

  • Designed for in-class; easily converted to online.


Sessions 1 2
Sessions 1 & 2 Ready for Final Release

  • 1. Course Introduction: Definitions, Background, Differences Between Disasters and Catastrophes

    • Lead developer: Bissell

    • Status: Available for review and comments

  • 2. Mechanisms of Past and Future Catastrophes

    • Lead developer: Bissell

    • Status: Available for review and comments


Sessions 3 5
Sessions 3-5 Ready for Final Release

  • Session 3: Variables and Relationships

    • Lead developer: David McEntire

    • Status: Available for review and comments

  • Session 4: Ethics

    • Lead developer: Anna Schwab

    • Status: Will be available 1 July 09

  • Session 5: Political and Legal Issues

    • Lead developer: John Pine

    • Status: Available for review and comments


Sessions 6 7
Sessions 6-7 Ready for Final Release

  • Session 6: Social and Economic Issues

    • Lead developer: Kevin Simmons

    • Status: Available for review and comments

  • Session 7: Logistics, Critical Infrastructure and Public Health

    • Developers: Tricia Wachtendorf, Rick Bissell, Drew Bumbak

    • Status: Available for review and comments


Sessions 8 10
Sessions 8-10 Ready for Final Release

  • Session 8: Mass Relocation

    • Lead developer: Anthony Oliver-Smith

    • Status: Available for review and comments

  • Session 9: Planning Strategies and Skills: Response

    • Lead developer: Brian Maguire

    • Status: Available for review and comments

  • Session 10: Planning Strategies and Skills: Recovery/Reconstruction

    • Lead developer: Gavin Smith

    • Status: Available for review and comments


Sessions 11 13
Sessions 11-13 Ready for Final Release

  • Session 11: Emergent Organizations and Networks

    • Lead developer: Tricia Wachtendorf

    • Status: Available for review and comments

  • Session 12: NMSZ and New Catastrophe Planning Methods

    • Lead developers: Scott Wells, Jasmin Ruback

    • Status: Expected by July

  • Session 13: Case Study: Pandemic Flu

    • Lead developers: Bissell and Tom Kirsch

    • Status: Available for review and comments


Sessions 14 15
Sessions 14-15 Ready for Final Release

  • Session 14: Tabletop Exercise

    • Lead developer: Myra Socher

    • Status: Available for review and comments

  • Session 15: Summary and Exam

    • Lead developer: Bissell

    • Status: Expected by July


Add on sessions
Add-on Sessions Ready for Final Release

  • Leadership

    • Lead developer: TBA

  • North Atlantic Collaboration

    • Lead developer: Erwan Lagadec

  • Catastrophe Mental Health / PTSD

    • Lead developer: Jeff Mitchell


Institutional partners
Institutional Partners Ready for Final Release

  • Center for Transatlantic Relations & the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (Lagadec)


Questions
Questions??? Ready for Final Release


Thanks
Thanks! Ready for Final Release

The Catastrophe Course Team

Contact: [email protected]


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