2004/05 Winter Energy Market Assessment
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November 18, 2004 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2004/05 Winter Energy Market Assessment. November 18, 2004. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Office of Market Oversight and Investigations

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2004/05 Winter Energy Market Assessment

November 18, 2004

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Office of Market Oversight and Investigations

Disclaimer: This Report contains analyses, presentations and conclusions that may be based on or derived from the data sources cited, but do not necessarily reflect the positions or recommendations of the data providers.

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OMOI’s Winter Assessment:

Market’s behavior is consistent with commodity markets under tight conditions

  • Supply Adequacy

  • Status of Trading

  • Infrastructure

  • Electric Markets

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Uncertainty and Supply Tightness Appear to be Driving Markets

Henry Hub Nov04-Mar05 Winter Strip

Henry Hub Prompt Month Futures Price

Henry Hub Spot Prices on ICE

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Alternative Fuel Prices Have Moved winter?Farther and Faster than Natural Gas

Natural Gas

New York

No. 2

Fuel Oil

No. 6

Fuel Oil

Crude Oil

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Speculative Trading Appears Less Significant winter?Than Supply and Demand Conditions

Short Commercial Position

Long Commercial Position

Short Non-Commercial Position

Long Non-Commercial Position

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Regional Markets, winter?Especially the NE, Could See Price Increases With Severe Weather

Pipeline Capacity Use during Peak Conditions on January 14, 2004 Reflected a Variety of System Factors

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Maritimes 75% winter?

Portland 89%

Iroquois 73%



Tennessee 95%

Algonquin 99%

Texas Eastern 92%

Transco 94%

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Electricity Prices Are Rising winter?in Response to Fuel Cost Increases

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Work with public utility commissions to help them protect customers as prices flow from the wholesale to retail markets

Monitor gas market activity including pipeline capacity utilization and regional prices

FERC’s OMOI Will Continue to Monitor Market Drivers Closely This Winter

  • Assess status, quality of and market reaction to natural gas storage data

  • Monitor winter electric market behavior

  • Pay particular attention to unexplained price movements and market activity around extreme weather