Please do not quote or reproduce without permission

1. Conflict Analysis May 17, 2006 Please do not quote or reproduce without permission

2. Conflict Analysis Framework Why conflict analysis? The Bank aims at promoting economic growth and poverty reduction through assistance that minimizes potential causes of conflict (Operational Policy on Development Cooperation and Conflict) Sensitivity to conflict in Bank assistance: A need to understand factors that affect conflict when developing strategies, policies and programs

3. Why conflict analysis? Increase sensitivity to conflict in strategies, policies and programs • Identify and understand drivers and dynamics of conflict escalation and de-escalation • Understand linkages between conflict and poverty • Basis for strengthened resiliency to conflict escalation via appropriate development strategies and interventions Conflict Analysis Framework

4. Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF) • Quick screening on 9 indicators to determine conflict analysis need • Full CAF: analysis of some 30 variables in different socioeconomic categories, adapted to local context • Policy recommendations and programmatic implications Conflict Analysis Framework

5. Social and Ethnic Relations • Governance and Political Institutions • Human Rights and Security • Economic Structure and Performance • Natural Resources • External Forces Conflict Analysis Framework Six categories of variables: Conflict Analysis Framework

6. Conflict Analysis Framework • Examples of variables used in conflict analysis: • ethnic cleavages • regional imbalances • inclusiveness of political institutions • militarization of society • economic growth • per capita income changes • access to natural resources • role of diaspora Conflict Analysis Framework

7. Conflict Analysis Framework • Variables analyzed in local context on: • history/changes • dynamics/trends • public perceptions • politicization • organization • link to poverty • effects on conflict escalation and de-escalation Conflict Analysis Framework

8. Different CAF Formats • Limited or comprehensive design • Conducted alone or with partners • Discrete analysis or part of wider work • Public dissemination or internal use • At the Bank: 14 countries subject to conflict analysis, variety of design and process formats Conflict Analysis Framework

9. Conflict Analysis at the Bank • Comprehensive stand-alone analyses: Nigeria, Somalia, Sri Lanka • Limited stand-alone analyses: CAR, Burundi, Venezuela • Limited conflict analysis as part of other work: Chad, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Angola • Other macro analyses with attention to conflict: Haiti, West Bank and Gaza Conflict Analysis Framework

10. Challenges in conflict analysis • Constraints of time, funding, capacity • Security and access during field work • Relationship to host government • Application of findings and recommendations in operations Conflict Analysis Framework

11. Way forward in conflict analysis • Briefer analyses often sufficient • Many benefits from multi-agency analyses • Country anchoring important • Maintain conflict analysis rigor even when conflict is not main focus • Conflict analysis should include operational application of findings and recommendations, not end with dissemination

12. Operational implications • Based on the analysis: • What kind of strategy and interventions would have a positive effect on the conflict situation (i.e. help reduce tension; strengthen country’s resilience to conflict escalation)? • What kind of strategy / interventions should we avoid ?