Quantitative and Qualitative Prediction of Human Health Risks from Animal Antibiotics. Tony Cox and Douglas Popken Cox Associates Denver, Colorado www.cox-associates.com. Motivation: Uncertain Science. Does animal antibiotic use (AAU) really increase human treatment failures?
Tony Cox and Douglas Popken
Enrofloxacin example: Risk model outputs
The promise of quantitative risk assessment:
Decision/act Exposures Illnesses Consequences
behaviors susceptibility treatment
Good RA supports good RM
What should an ideal qualitative rating system do?
The new framework can do all of these.
Basic idea: Estimate population risk as:
Population Risk (e.g., illnesses/year) =
( use) * ( exposure/ use)*( illnesses/ exposure) * ( health impacts/ illness)