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Talented Young Workers and the Prospects for Metropolitan Prosperity. Roadmap. Why the Young & Restless Matter Quantitative Analysis Qualitative Analysis. Participating Cities. Memphis, TN Philadelphia, PA Portland, OR Providence, RI Portland, VA Tampa, FL. Research Agenda.

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Presentation Transcript
roadmap
Roadmap
  • Why the Young & Restless Matter
  • Quantitative Analysis
  • Qualitative Analysis
participating cities
Participating Cities
  • Memphis, TN
  • Philadelphia, PA
  • Portland, OR
  • Providence, RI
  • Portland, VA
  • Tampa, FL
research agenda
Research Agenda
  • Detailed Quantitative Analysis
    • Demographics, migration, and location of 25-34 year-olds in 1990 and 2000
    • Focus on Top 50 US Metro Areas
      • (All with populations >1 million)
  • In-Depth Qualitative Analysis
    • Focus groups with young workers in participating cities
    • Recent movers, college plus education
national context
National Context

Why the Young and Restless Matter to Metropolitan Prosperity

fewer 25 to 34 year olds
Fewer 25 to 34 year-olds
  • U.S. 25 to 34 Year Old Population
    • 1990: 43.5 Million
    • 2000: 39.6 Million
  • Today
    • 3.9 Million Fewer
    • a 9% Decline
a critical demographic
A Critical Demographic

As a group, 25 to 34 year-olds are:

  • Well-Educated
  • Highly Mobile
  • Hard-Working
  • Adaptable
  • Cheap (Relative to Older Workers)

= H.R.’s Dream Demographic

slide8

Big Shifts Among Metros

% Change 25-34 year-olds, 1990 to 2000

50 Most Populous Metro Areas

Average of Top 50 Metros

future outlook labor shortage
Last 30 Years

Boomers enter prime work years

Women’s labor market participation nearly doubles

Educational attainment up sharply

= Labor Surplus

Next 30 Years

Boomers retire; many early

Women’s labor market participation plateaus

Educational attainmentplateaus

= Labor Shortage

Future Outlook: Labor Shortage
competing in a knowledge economy
Competing in a Knowledge Economy
  • Talent is the critical resource
  • “The Creative Class” matters
    • Skilled, creative workers
    • Attractive, tolerant places
    • Innovative, successful economies
  • The Young and Restless are the “creative class” that is up for grabs
quantitative analysis
Quantitative Analysis
  • National Context: Why this matters
  • Overall Trends
  • Changing Faces
  • Talent
  • Moving In, Moving On
  • Local Patterns
benchmark cities have more 25 34s
Benchmark Cities Have More 25-34s

Rank Metropolitan Area Percent 25-34

1 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 18.2%

6 Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 16.4%

10 Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA 15.7%

13 San Diego, CA MSA 15.5%

15 Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA 15.4%

18 Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 15.2%

changing faces
Changing Faces

Racial and Ethnic Trends Reshapingthe Look of the Young and Restless

young adult population more diverse
Young Adult Population More Diverse

Percent of Population, 1990 and 2000

growth rates varied by demography
Growth Rates Varied by Demography

Percent Change, 1990 to 2000

hispanics
Fastest growing segment of the young and restless since 1990

Hispanic 25-34: Up 2.3 million (+57%)

Non-Hispanic 25-34: Down 5.3 million (-17%)

San Antonio 25-34 year-olds are majority Hispanic; Los Angeles (48%), Miami (46%)

Low College Attainment an issue (11% vs. 31.9% for all 25-34s)

Hispanics
african americans
Declining slightly, less than whites

Generally becoming more dispersed

Magnet Cities for African Americans,

Atlanta, Orlando, Charlotte, Minneapolis

Atlanta

36% increase in 25-34 year-old African Americans

24% college attainment (vs 18% nationally)

African-Americans
smart women
Smart Women

College Attainment Rate of 25 to 34 Year Olds, 2000

Gender 1990 2000Change

Men26.9%30.3% +3.4%

Women 26.3% 33.6% +7.3%

Change in College-educated 25 to 34 Year Olds, 1990-2000

Gender NumberPercent

Men + 150,000 +4.2%

Women + 624,000 +18.0%

portland s population less diverse
Portland’s Population Less Diverse

25 to 34 Year-olds

Rank Metropolitan Area Percent White

12 Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 79.7%

17 Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 77.7%

19 Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA 75.9%

25 Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA 71.7%

32 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 69.1%

41 San Diego, CA MSA 61.6%

average in college attainment
Average in College Attainment

25-34 year-olds with a 4-Year Degree, 2000

Rank Metropolitan Area 4 Year Degree

6 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 38.9%

7 Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 38.1%

14 Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA 34.2%

27 Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 29.0%

30 San Diego, CA MSA 28.7%

44 Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA 24.6%

biggest shifts in talented 25 34s
Biggest Shifts in Talented 25-34s

Change in College Educated 25-34s

Rank Metropolitan Area Change, 1990-2000

2 Charlotte, NC MSA 56.6%

3 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 56.2%

4 Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 50.0%

5 Atlanta, GA MSA 46.2%

6 Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 40.1%

42 St. Louis, MO, MSA -0.7%

45 New Orleans, LA MSA -4.3%

49 Providence, RI MSA -7.0%

moving in moving on
Moving In, Moving On

Migration of the Young and RestlessAmong US Metropolitan Areas

millions move
Between 1995 and 2000, 6.6 million 25 to 34 year-olds moved from one metropolitan area to another

Migration rates vary by a factor of four

Well-educated are the most likely to move, especially long distances

Millions Move
local patterns
Local Patterns

Where do the 25 to 34 year-olds Live in Portland?

25 to 34 year olds increasing
25 to 34 Year-olds Increasing

Increase in 25 to 34 Year-olds, 1990-2000

college educated young adults
College-educated young adults

Concentration of College-educated 25-34 year-olds

african american 25 34 year olds
African-American 25-34 year-olds

Concentration of African-American 25-34 year-olds

close in neighborhods key
Close-in Neighborhods Key

Concentration of College-educated 25-34 year-olds

3 miles from CBD

Growth of 25 to 34 year-olds

1990 to 2000

+30 Percent

Share of25 to 34 year-olds

with a 4-year degree

54 Percent

central or suburban growth
Central or Suburban Growth?

Change in 25-34 year-olds Population 1990-2000

Metropolitan Area Within 3 Miles Outside 3 Miles

Seattle--Tacoma, WA CMSA +32% - 6%

Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA +30% +10%

Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA +24% +14%

San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CMSA +17% - 6%

Raleigh--Durham--Chapel Hill, NC MSA - 2% +23%

Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA -5% +25%

Charlotte, NC--SC MSA -12% +19%

smart in the center or burbs
Smart in the Center or Burbs?

25-34 year-olds with a 4-Year Degree, 2000

Metropolitan Area Within 3 Miles Outside 3 Miles

Seattle--Tacoma, WA CMSA 56% 32%

Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 54% 26%

Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 46% 37%

San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CMSA 67% 38%

Raleigh--Durham--Chapel Hill, NC MSA 40% 46%

Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA 12% 25%

Charlotte, NC--SC MSA 35% 32%

from here
From Here . . .

The Economic Importance of Being Different

qualitative analysis
Qualitative Analysis
  • What the young and restless want from cities
  • City-specific assets and challenges
  • A toolkit for cities
  • Insights and opportunities
what the young and the restless want from cities
What the Young and the Restless Want from Cities

Open the Circle and Welcome Newcomers

Welcome New Ideas

Encourage Diversity

Create a Place Where People Can Be Themselves

Let Young People Live Their Values and Create a New History

what the young and the restless want from cities1
What the Young and the Restless Want from Cities

Build Vibrant Places

Take Care of the Basics

Be the Best at Something

Sell Your Regional Assets

Know What You Want to Be and Be Willing to Take Risks to Achieve It

a toolkit for cities
A Toolkit for Cities

Deliver an appealing reality.

Put values on display.

Keep in touch with former residents.

Create opportunities for civic involvement.

Use internships to connect with young adults.

more tools
More Tools . . .

Survey young adults regularly.

Celebrate young entrepreneurs and civic contributors.

Communicate development plans to young adults.

Promote your city.

Promote a young adult lifestyle.

differences from other studies
Three other studies address migration

Bill Frey: “Metropolitan Magnets”

Paul Gottlieb: “Brain Drain”

Census Bureau:

Differences from Other Studies
frey metro magnets
“Metropolitan Magnets for International and Domestic Migrants” (Oct. 2003)

International and domestic migration among 81 Largest Metros based on Census, 1995-2000 migration data

KEY WEAKNESS: No age group data

“Domestic migrant magnets all characterized by lower-density” (p. 9)

Frey: Metro Magnets
gottlieb brain drain
Labor Supply Pressures and the "Brain Drain”, (January 2004)

“Northeast & Midwest have highest proportion of young & educated; counters notion of a brain drain.”

WEAKNESS: Doesn’t measure change in educational attainment of 25-34s from 1990 to 2000

Year 2000 snapshot on attainment; change measures have life cycle bias--compares location of 15 to 24 year olds in 1990 to 25 to 34 year olds in 2000; doesn’t separate out effects of international migrations

Gottlieb: Brain Drain