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Communicating Uncertain Risks: Models and Methods

Communicating Uncertain Risks: Models and Methods. Prof. Dr. Peter M. Wiedemann Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, ITAS Shenzhen, BGI , 1 st Sigenet Workshop. “…. facts are like cows. If you look them in the face hard enough they generally run away.” Dorothy L. Sayers. Overview.

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Communicating Uncertain Risks: Models and Methods

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  1. Communicating Uncertain Risks: Models and Methods Prof. Dr. Peter M. Wiedemann Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, ITAS Shenzhen, BGI , 1stSigenet Workshop

  2. “…. facts are like cows. If you look them in the face hard enough they generally run away.” • Dorothy L. Sayers

  3. Overview • Uncertain Risk • Risk Communication • Hurdles and Barriers • Models and Methods • Epilogue

  4. Overview • Uncertain Risk • Risk Communication • Hurdles and Barriers • Models and Methods • Epilogue

  5. Risk

  6. Risk is Everywhere The risk concept could be applied to everything.” M. Power The Risk Management of Everything. Rethinkingthe politicsofuncertainty. London: Demos 2004

  7. Risk is Everywhere • Living close to a power station • Working in a chemical plant • Skiing • Buying shares • Sun bathing • Playing golf • Being (un)married

  8. Components of the Risk Concept • Effect: Cause-effect relationship • Loss: Negative relevance of the effect • Uncertainty: Probability of the loss • Level of evidence: Knowledge about these components

  9. Uncertain Risks • Is there a risk? • How large is the risk?

  10. Peter Wiedemann Uncertainty is business as usual IARC Classification of potential carcinogenic substances

  11. How big is the risk? Source: WHO (2007) : Extremely Low Frequency Fields Environmental HealthCriteria Monograph No.23

  12. Overview • Topic: Uncertain Risk • Risk Communication • Hurdles and Barriers • Models and Methods • Epilogue

  13. RiskCommunication Interactive exchange of information about health or environmental risks among risk assessors, managers, news media, interested groups, and the general public. WHO 2004, IPCS Risk Assessment Terminology

  14. Risk Communication Purpose of RC • RC is needed for informed decision making and informed judgements about health impacts

  15. RC Examples • What does a positive mammography screening test indicate? • How probable is it to get breast cancer if I have a BRCA 1 mutation? • Are cell phone safe for children?

  16. Ingredients of Good RC • Reliable & valid data • Over all picture (don´t lose the sight of the wood for the trees) • Good reporting (transparency, clarity, reasonableness, unbiased information processing) • Credibility

  17. Overview • Topic: Uncertain Risk • Risk Communication • Hurdles and Barriers • Models and Methods • Epilogue

  18. Hurdles and Barriers • Complexity • Inquisitorial science system in an adversarial societal context • Mis-attribution of uncertainty • Biased assimilation / confirmation bias

  19. Informing about Hazard-related Uncertainty

  20. Overview • Topic: Uncertain Risk • Risk Communication • Hurdles and Challenges • Models and Methods • Epilogue

  21. Various Models • Risk perception • Risk communication • Dialogue theories • Persuasion theories • Social marketing • Theories of information processing

  22. Routes of Information Processing Elaboration Route Information processing Decision criteria Message Central Careful, analytic Quality of arguments High level Petty, R. E., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1986). Communication and Persuasion: Central andPeripheralRoutesto Attitude Change Peripheral Cursory, intuitive Persuasive cues Low level

  23. Evidence Maps • CORA

  24. Evidence Maps • EM are tools for synthesizing reporting evidence • Process structure • Reporting structure

  25. Evidence Assessment Evidence Maps Visualization of basic facts Evidence base Pro and con-arguments Conclusion Uncertainty

  26. < ...> < ...> supporting supporting Conclusion: < ... > Remaining Uncertainties < ... > attenuating attenuating < ... > < ... > Evidence Map - Elements • Evidence Basis: • <Number of studies> Pro-Argument: < ... > Contra-Argument: < ... >

  27. Routes of Information Processing Elaboration Route Information processing Decision criteria Message Central Careful, analytic Quality of arguments High level Petty, R. E., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1986). Communication and Persuasion: Central andPeripheralRoutesto Attitude Change Peripheral Cursory, intuitive Persuasive cues Low level

  28. Framework for communicating risk assessment reports (CORA) CORA

  29. More Information

  30. Epilogue The future is not yet know

  31. James Lind Alliance

  32. Future project: Reporting evidence including uncertainties of Omics based tests and therapies • Webpage

  33. Thank you very much! Peter.Wiedemann@itas.fzk.de www.wiedemannonline.com

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