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Global Climate Change Overview

Global Climate Change Overview. Michael D. Mastrandrea, Ph.D. Deputy Director, Science, IPCC Working Group II and Assistant Consulting Professor Woods Institute for the Environment. The Key Facts. Global climate change is… unequivocal , almost certainly caused mostly by us ,

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Global Climate Change Overview

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  1. Global Climate ChangeOverview Michael D. Mastrandrea, Ph.D. Deputy Director, Science, IPCC Working Group II and Assistant Consulting Professor Woods Institute for the Environment

  2. The Key Facts Global climate change is… • unequivocal, • almost certainly caused mostly by us, • already causing significant harm • growing rapidly, and • requires global action and local solutions.

  3. Warming is Unequivocal… http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

  4. …And Not Uniform Average Surface T in 2001-2005 vs 1951-80 J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293 ( 2006)

  5. Shrinking Glaciers Muir Glacier, Alaska August 1941 August 2004 NSIDC/WDC for Glaciology, Boulder, compiler. 2002, updated 2006. Online glacier photograph database. Boulder, CO: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

  6. Surface melting on Greenland is expanding 1992 2002 2005 Source: ACIA, 2004, CIRES, 2005, Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)

  7. Changing Patterns of Extreme Events Major floods per decade, 1950-2000

  8. Increasing Wildfire Risk Western US area burned Source: Westerling et al. 2006

  9. Natural Carbon Cycle

  10. Human Impact on the Carbon Cycle

  11. Carbon Flows (2005) emissions frommarine systems100 Gt C per year ATMOSPHERE 750 Gt C 379 ppm CO2 emissions fromterrestrial systems 100 Gt C per year absorption bymarine systems102 Gt C per year OCEANS absorption byterrestrial systems103 Gt C per year LAND human-caused emissions: 9 Gt C per year

  12. Increasing CO2 Concentrations

  13. IPCC, 2007

  14. Increasing CO2 Concentrations IPCC, 2007

  15. Ice Core Records

  16. Ice Core Records Source: Hansen, Clim. Change, 68, 269, 2005.

  17. Fingerprint Analysis Black = Observed Gold = Human and Natural Forcings Blue = Only Natural Forcings IPCC, 2007

  18. Projected Changes in CA Summer Temperature UCS UCS

  19. Species Shifting and… 1900 >7,800 ft 2004 >9,500 ft Pika

  20. Diminishing Sierra Snowpack Percentage Remaining, Relative to 1961-1990 UCS

  21. Mitigation Adaptation

  22. 2006 2005 Rapidly Increasing Emissions Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

  23. Climate Stabilization

  24. Regional CO2 Emissions 2000-2004 Growth 2004 Raupach et al., 2007

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