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Global Climate Change Overview. Michael D. Mastrandrea, Ph.D. Deputy Director, Science, IPCC Working Group II and Assistant Consulting Professor Woods Institute for the Environment. The Key Facts. Global climate change is… unequivocal , almost certainly caused mostly by us ,

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global climate change overview

Global Climate ChangeOverview

Michael D. Mastrandrea, Ph.D.

Deputy Director, Science, IPCC Working Group II

and

Assistant Consulting Professor

Woods Institute for the Environment

the key facts
The Key Facts

Global climate change is…

  • unequivocal,
  • almost certainly caused mostly by us,
  • already causing significant harm
  • growing rapidly, and
  • requires global action and local solutions.
warming is unequivocal
Warming is Unequivocal…

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

slide4

…And Not Uniform

Average Surface T in 2001-2005 vs 1951-80

J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293 ( 2006)

slide5

Shrinking Glaciers

Muir Glacier, Alaska

August 1941

August 2004

NSIDC/WDC for Glaciology, Boulder, compiler. 2002, updated 2006. Online glacier photograph database. Boulder, CO: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

slide6

Surface melting on Greenland is expanding

1992

2002

2005

Source: ACIA, 2004, CIRES, 2005, Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)

slide7

Changing Patterns of Extreme Events

Major floods per decade, 1950-2000

slide8

Increasing Wildfire Risk

Western US area burned

Source: Westerling et al. 2006

carbon flows 2005
Carbon Flows (2005)

emissions frommarine systems100 Gt C per year

ATMOSPHERE

750 Gt C

379 ppm CO2

emissions fromterrestrial systems 100 Gt C per year

absorption bymarine systems102 Gt C per year

OCEANS

absorption byterrestrial systems103 Gt C per year

LAND

human-caused emissions:

9 Gt C per year

ice core records1
Ice Core Records

Source: Hansen, Clim.

Change, 68, 269, 2005.

fingerprint analysis
Fingerprint Analysis

Black = Observed

Gold = Human and Natural Forcings

Blue = Only Natural Forcings

IPCC, 2007

slide19

Species Shifting and…

1900

>7,800 ft

2004

>9,500 ft

Pika

slide20

Diminishing Sierra Snowpack

Percentage Remaining, Relative to 1961-1990

UCS

slide21

Mitigation

Adaptation

slide22

2006

2005

Rapidly Increasing Emissions

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

slide24

Regional CO2 Emissions

2000-2004

Growth

2004

Raupach et al., 2007