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Making Sense of the 2012 Transportation Tax Referendum. Presented by Beth S. Schapiro, PhD beth@schapirogroup.com GAMPO December 6, 2011. Evaluating Polling Data. Source of the Poll. Who conducted the survey? Who commissioned it?. Methodology. Telephone

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making sense of the 2012 transportation tax referendum
Making Sense of the 2012 Transportation Tax Referendum
  • Presented by
  • Beth S. Schapiro, PhD
  • beth@schapirogroup.com
  • GAMPO
  • December 6, 2011
source of the poll
Source of the Poll
  • Who conducted the survey?
  • Who commissioned it?
methodology
Methodology
  • Telephone
    • Live callers or Interactive Voice Response (IVR)
  • Online
voter sample
Voter Sample
  • Who was polled?
    • Likely voters, registered voters, or all adults?
    • Demographics: geography, political party identification
  • How many were polled?
    • Margin of sampling error
poll content
Poll Content
  • What questions were asked?
  • How were they worded?
comparison to other survey findings
Comparison to Other Survey Findings
  • Trends
  • Are these findings consistent with other recent polls?
voters
Voters
  • Low turnout expected
    • No major statewide campaigns
    • Will vary by region
      • Contested Congressional primaries
      • Metro Atlanta multi-million dollar campaign
  • Primary voters are generally the base voters of each party
  • Voters not in a very good mood
political dynamics
Political Dynamics
  • Unique referendum
    • Asking voters to vote for both personal interest and regional good
    • First time project selection process
  • Lots of moving parts and political interests to be served
components of successful campaign
Components of Successful Campaign
  • Broad coalition of supporters
  • Well-organized with strong leadership, effective message, and solid campaign plan
  • Identify and communicate with targeted voters
components of successful campaign1
Components of Successful Campaign
  • Comprehensive program for communicating with voters
    • “Earned” media, paid advertising, social media, direct mail
    • Must have transparency and complete and accurate information about projects