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Attitudes of Settlers in The West Bank and Gaza About the Possibility Of Leaving

Attitudes of Settlers in The West Bank and Gaza About the Possibility Of Leaving. An Abridged Report of Findings Based on Three Survey Phases: April-July 2002 Conducted by: Dr. Michael Hopp with: Prof. D.Jacobson, Prof. Y. Peres & Prof, Y. Schnell. RESEARCH PLAN.

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Attitudes of Settlers in The West Bank and Gaza About the Possibility Of Leaving

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  1. Attitudes of Settlers in The West Bank and Gaza About the Possibility Of Leaving An Abridged Report of Findings Based on Three Survey Phases: April-July 2002 Conducted by: Dr. Michael Hopp with: Prof. D.Jacobson, Prof. Y. Peres & Prof, Y. Schnell

  2. RESEARCH PLAN • 4,000 HOUSEHOLDS WERE SAMPLED, ONE PERSON PER HOUSEHOLD. • 3,200 RESPONDENTS IN THE WEST BANK AND GAZA AND 800 IN A CONTROL GROUP OF JEWS WITHIN THE GREENLINE. • SAMPLING IN THE TERRITORIES WAS CONDUCTED TO QUOTAS IN 20 GEORGAPHICAL CLUSTERS. • SETTLERS WERE INTERVIEWED AT RANDOM BY PHONE IN 127 SETTLEMENTS. • EVEN IN SMALLEST SETTLEMENTS NO LESS THEN 10 HOUSEHOLDS WERE INTERVIEWED. • CAREFUL METHODOLOGICAL PROCEDURES WERE EMPLOYED THROUGHOUT TO ENSURE STUDY RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY • PRIOR TO ANALYSIS DATA WERE ADJUSTED TO THE CORRECT POPULATION PROPORTIONS

  3. METHODOLOGY • INTERVIEWS EMPLOYED CLOSE-ENDED QUESTIONNAIRES WITH MANY SHORT ORDINAL AND INTERVAL SCALED ITEMS • OPINIONS AND ATTITUDES WERE SCREENED IN SEVERAL BATTERIES OF GRADED QUESTIONS. • EVERY ITEM WAS STUDIED IN MORE THEN ONE SEPARATE SERIES OF QUESTIONS • EACH SERIES OF QUESTIONS WAS USED TO FORMULATE A SEPARATE “ATTITUDE MEASURE” • USING STATISTICAL PROCEDURES (ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE, REGRESSION AND RELIABILITY ANALYSIS) THESE “ATTITUDE MEASURES” WERE JOINED INTO AN INDEX OF THE PROJECTED RESPONSE TO WITHDRAWAL FROM THE TERRITORIES. • THE SAMPLE WAS SPLIT INTO THREE, EACH WAS GIVEN A DIFFERENT “COMPENSATION PRICE” TO TEST “DEMAND” FOR A FINANCIAL SETTLEMENT IN RETURN FOR A WITHDRAWAL.

  4. TOPICS OF STUDY THE QUESTIONNAIRE COVERED FOLLOWING TOPICS: • PERCEIVED NEED FOR PEACE & A PALESTINIAN STATE • THE PROBABILITY OF PEACE ATTAINMENT • PERCEIVED NEED TO WITHDRAW FROM THE TERRITORIES • MAIN REASONS FOR COMING TO LIVE IN THE TERRITORIES • IDENTIFICATION & ACCEPTANCE OF INSTITUTIONS AUTHORIZED TO MAKE WITHDRAWAL DECISIONS • PREFERRED BEHAVIORAL OPTIONS IN CASE OF SUCH A DECISION • LEGITIMACY OF VARIOUS ACTIONS IN CASE OF SUCH A DECISION • ATTITUDE TOWARDS PROFFERED COMPENSATION (EACH RESPONDENT WAS ASKED ABOUT ONE PRICE LEVEL ONLY) • IDEOLOGICAL PROFILE OF RESPONDENT • CURRENT LEVELS OF SOCIAL, COMMUNAL & INDIVIDUAL STRESS • DETAILED SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC BACKGROUND DATA

  5. HIGHLIGHTS OF MAIN FINDINGSׂ(rounded figures)

  6. SCALE BUILDING METHODOLOGY • DATA WERE USED TO CONSTRUCT FOUR SCALES OF “POLITICAL ORIENTATION”;“POLITICAL EXTREMISM”;“ACCEPTANCE OF DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS” & “WILLINGNESS TO RISK SELF & OTHERS”. • THE SCALES WERE STATISTICALLY TESTED • THE 2 BEST PREDICTIVE SCALES WERE THEN USED TO SEGMENT THE RESPONDENTS BY THEIR EXPECTED REACTION TO A WITHDRAWAL DECISION.

  7. MAIN VARIABLES EMPLOYED IN SCALE BUILDING

  8. Institutions which may decide withdrawal

  9. The graded incremental principle of extremism Will protest with legal means Will fight with all means may resort to violence Will obey

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